Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

First storm miss south, second storm LP over lake Erie, cold rain.

AnthonyMM going to be right for the wrong reasons ? That troll doesn't deserve to be right. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

First storm miss south, second storm LP over lake Erie, cold rain.

Total fit for this winter if that happens. Suppression storms for DC, Gulf Coast, Carolinas. Big SWFE to hit north of NYC and New England. Suppression again for the same people that were hit, then once again cutter/SWFE. Whatever torture this winter is, I want it to end ASAP. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Total fit for this winter if that happens. Suppression storms for DC, Gulf Coast, Carolinas. Big SWFE to hit north of NYC and New England. Suppression again for the same people that were hit, then once again cutter/SWFE. Whatever torture this winter is, I want it to end ASAP. 

Yup. Bring on the 60s

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yup. Bring on the 60s

Yeah I’m over this lol but still time for this week at least 

[Franklin0529]

What a disaster. We suck at snow

[cleetussnow]

And then a cutter.  Thats all folks.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Total fit for this winter if that happens. Suppression storms for DC, Gulf Coast, Carolinas. Big SWFE to hit north of NYC and New England. Suppression again for the same people that were hit, then once again cutter/SWFE. Whatever torture this winter is, I want it to end ASAP. 

it's like trying to thread a needle and missing it by just a little bit each time (in either direction).

This is why it's a thread the needle pattern.

Many more ways for things to go wrong than ways for them to go right.

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AnthonyMM going to be right for the wrong reasons ? That troll doesn't deserve to be right. 

You are usually better off to bet against a lot of snow then for it around here. had some good years in the past, but it's been crud for a few years now. And the lack of precip is one reason my sump pipe froze; in a rainy pattern, the pump works constantly, so a cold snap or two won't freeze the line. And there isn't a thing I can do about it until it thaws, so I'm ready for some prolonged higher temps. 

[MJO812]

No more threads should be made until at least 3 days out

[winterwx21]

Tonight's Euro brushes us with a little snow Tuesday. Light accumulations. More significant for southern NJ. Close enough that it's still something to keep an eye on. Hopefully we can get it to trend back north, but I know for days SnowGoose has been concerned about a potential miss to the south. Would be frustrating after these mix storms to have an all snow event miss to the south. Hopefully that won't happen. I know GFS tonight was bad, but UKMET has our area on the edge of the significant snow. Still uncertain with plenty of time. 

[SnoSki14]

My SNE snow pattern and us only getting 2-4" by the 20th is looking really good right now. 

[nycsnow]

Gfs pretty uneventful for NYC area looks great if you live up north 

[Allsnow]

I wouldn’t give up on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pattern favors a north trend imo 

[Yanksfan]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I wouldn’t give up on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pattern favors a north trend imo 

Agreed. If there’s one model I trust the most it would be the EURO AI. It’s been spot on this winter. It has the Wednesday storm gradually trending north. I don’t have access to snow maps but it looks like it has a few inches in our area with more down in central and southern Jersey.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Agreed. If there’s one model I trust the most it would be the EURO AI. It’s been spot on this winter. It has the Wednesday storm gradually trending north. I don’t have access to snow maps but it looks like it has a few inches in our area with more down in central and southern Jersey.

Agreed. Every model has trended towards it inside 5 days 

[wdrag]

This thread continues as originated. LOTS of wintry mix events coming.  It's possible that I'll extend the thread through the 16th in the middle of next week depending on modeling. Next weekend is looking like a 1-2" qpf event with rain-(freezing rain depending on temp reality inland of I95) all preceded by some snow-sleet Saturday afternoon-evening.  

View it as you wish, but keep blending and not using one cycle as trend, plus use the SREF/NAM warm nose inside of 36 hours to trim potential. 

I'll check in late today (but off line 9A-1P)

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This thread continues as originated. LOTS of wintry mix events coming.  It's possible that I'll extend the thread through the 16th in the middle of next week depending on modeling. Next weekend is looking like a 1-2" qpf event with rain-(freezing rain depending on temp reality inland of I95) all preceded by some snow-sleet Saturday afternoon-evening.  

View it as you wish, but keep blending and not using one cycle as trend, plus use the SREF/NAM warm nose inside of 36 hours to trim potential. 

I'll check in late today (but off line 9A-1P)

Thanks, I guess that PD2 look is now gone

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. Every model has trended towards it inside 5 days 

Yes, it's really been good on tracks, plus the 6Z GFS bumped significantly back NW and the UK is a moderate hit for CNJ/NYC and SE of there where it's a big hit for Philly/SNJ.  Doesn't have to shift much NW to put everyone back into at least a moderate, 2-4" event.  AIFS precip is below and all of that is snow given temps are below 32F for the duration, except for SENJ.  Would likely be >10:1 ratio too.  

 

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, it's really been good on tracks, plus the 6Z GFS bumped significantly back NW and the UK is a moderate hit for CNJ/NYC and SE of there where it's a big hit for Philly/SNJ.  Doesn't have to shift much NW to put everyone back into at least a moderate, 2-4" event.  AIFS precip is below and all of that is snow given temps are below 32F for the duration, except for SENJ.  Would likely be >10:1 ratio too.  

 

i have observed over the years that, for whatever reason, when south of us does well with snow, we don't. It's like a pattern sets up and damn the teleconnections, it's gonna snow where it wants to snow ( all credit to Henry Marguisity ). There is no scientific reasoning to my observation; I know you're a hard science kinda guy.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, I guess that PD2 look is now gone

Been waiting for PD 3 for a couple decades.....running out of time...

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, I guess that PD2 look is now gone

Different thread. Walt is talking about the next two events next week which are both before the favorable time period that Blue Wave and Brooklyn WX were talking about, remember these events are before the block gets established. At that point the risk will be suppression not change over. 

That said I would still monitor Tuesday especially the southern half of this forum. The later storm looks like a pure cutter.

[EastonSN+]

Basically tonight's event is for the northern half of this forum and Tuesdays will likely be for the southern half of this forum. Hopefully there's not a dead zone between.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Basically tonight's event is for the northern half of this forum and Tuesdays will likely be for the southern half of this forum. Hopefully there's not a dead zone between.

I don't think anyone will get no snow at all, at least 2 inches from each of those storms seems likely.

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Have y'all given up on the Tuesday system already? I'm flying back to EWR landing at 1pm and terrified of getting back to the beach.  I left my ice and snow cleaning gear in my car at the parking spot where I dumped my car for the weekend lol 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Have y'all given up on the Tuesday system already? I'm flying back to EWR landing at 1pm and terrified of getting back to the beach.  I left my ice and snow cleaning gear in my car at the parking spot where I dumped my car for the weekend lol 

Your area might do decently but if we get anything it's later in the day

[winterwx21]

Today's CMC does get a couple inches of snow up to our area late Tuesday. GFS is north compared to yesterday too. We're definitely still in the game with plenty of time for this to trend north. Don't think it will be a big storm but we can at least get it to trend far enough north to get a few inches. It would be nice to get an all snow event after these mix storms. 

[MJO812]

Ukie 

[SnowGoose69]

I'm becoming increasingly confident LI/S parts of the metro will see some snow with the Tuesday event, not likely over 3-4 inches but more confident a total miss won't happen.  North areas I think could see nothing.  Thursday IMO is rain for the coastal areas and maybe ice inland, Tuesday COULD have some impact on Thursday but probably not a ton because we get a temporary fail of the EPO and the trof out west which is going to allow that thing to dig for China and cut regardless. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm becoming increasingly confident LI/S parts of the metro will see some snow with the Tuesday event, not likely over 3-4 inches but more confident a total miss won't happen.  North areas I think could see nothing.  Thursday IMO is rain for the coastal areas and maybe ice inland, Tuesday COULD have some impact on Thursday but probably not a ton because we get a temporary fail of the EPO and the trof out west which is going to allow that thing to dig for China and cut regardless. 

Looks like South Shore will be the place to be for the Tuesday event, what are you thinking, 4" JFK 2" LGA?

[nycsnow]

Euro not snow lover friendly for nyc this coming week. Nothing really Tuesday…rain Thursday