Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[lee59]

NWS not to bullish for Long Island, basically 1-2 inches or less. We shall see.

[wdrag]

I'll set the OBS thread for this final piece of the thread at 8AM tomorrow.  When it begins which will probably be NOON Saturday-6PM Monday. I'll define it as snow/ice reports (most on LI/NYC will be through 10PM Sat), then I'll add damaging wind gusts and recommend gust reports 50+MPH for Sun night-Monday, and if you wish... you can add but certainly not necessary, your FEB rain totals through the 16th. The attached map sets the baseline of about where we are the first 2 weeks. WPC has us generally 1.5" qpf here by Sunday evening.

Maybe we'll have CP Feb snow total by tomorrow nights 1AM CLINYC, up to near 8"?  There's a chance ... depending snow qpf and melting on contact. 

[MJO812]

Nam is better for tomorrow

[jimbo073]

What time is estimated start time for union county?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jimbo073 said:

What time is estimated start time for union county?

Between 1 and 2pm

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jimbo073 said:

What time is estimated start time for union county?

2-3pm

[sussexcountyobs]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is better for tomorrow

That Nam looks low on accumulation. NWS forecast for here is 2-4. A few others are 3-5. I'm thinking 3-4

[jimbo073]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2-3pm

Thank you 

[wishcast_hater]

I guess no none is interested in this storm huh.  I figure at least the guys to the North would we talking about it.

[cardinalland]

i think i get 2-3 up here but the rain immediately after is gonna wash much of the pack away so it’s less exciting

[the_other_guy]

50 and rainy Sunday…who cares?

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I guess no none is interested in this storm huh.  I figure at least the guys to the North would we talking about it.

Always interested in snow, but just not optimistic, south of 78, especially with 33-34F temps, light to moderate intensity and snow falling during the day (yes there is more indirect sunlight impact on 2/15 vs. 12/20). Earlier today when the NWS had 2.0" for my house, I predicted 1.4" for my house and that will mostly be on the grass. Unless one of the snowier, higher intensity models is right. One can hope.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Looks as if snow breaks out in a bout 8 hours ( 2 pm give or take an hour ) and 8 hours later we say buh bye as it turns to ice and or rain around 10 pm ( give or take ) ,,,,,enjoy the day all

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy 20.5/9.5

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

I guess no none is interested in this storm huh.  I figure at least the guys to the North would we talking about it.

Yeah, 36 pages of no one interested. Anyway, hoping the temps get high enough above freezing up here tomorrow to melt the anticipated ice off the trees and wires before the winds kick in. Also wondering what kind of icy mess there will be on the ground once it all freezes up again. 
 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, 36 pages of no one interested. 

I think today has underperformer written all over it south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex. Daytime, very marginal temps, crappy rates, crappy dendrite snow growth, weak to non existent frontogen. Take the under 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think today has underperformer written all over it south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex. Daytime, very marginal temps, crappy rates, crappy dendrite snow growth, weak to non existent frontogen. Take the under 

Yeah, I tend to agree. Hopefully the biggest story won't be the wind right before and after the cold front. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Definitely interested and have been all week. Looking to get 3 to 4 inches out of this, followed by a coating of ice, which will just make the snow cover which is already solid, even more impervious to rain and Sundays 39 degree high. 
 

I think everyone's already getting very sidetracked on Thursday's potential   I'm 50-50 on that one right now, but the last two euro runs did show over 2 feet for our area so hard not to be. Of course the GFS missed us so that's why you can't get too invested yet. 
 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think today has underperformer written all over it south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex. Daytime, very marginal temps, crappy rates, crappy dendrite snow growth, weak to non existent frontogen. Take the under 

I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. 

Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. 

Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow. 

Models have been increasing the wind threat as well. Starting to see 60-65mph wind gust on short range models 

[LoboLeader1]

High Wind Watch

Issued: 3:25 AM Feb. 15, 2025 – National Weather Service

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Models have been increasing the wind threat as well. Starting to see 60-65mph wind gust on short range models 

Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. 

Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening. 

[nycsnow]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. 

Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening. 

Yea 6z hrr (to far out) but shows wind gust up to 70 off of Long Island with 60s hitting the coast. It’s gonna be a long duration event there’s gonna be some power problems 

[nycsnow]

[wdrag]

OBS thread will be up in a few minutes...  

[EastonSN+]

Hoping some of us can pad our stats.

Not looking great for Central Park however hopefully a half inch to an inch.

[nightknights]

On 2/10/2025 at 9:03 PM, nycsnow said:

 

Iwhmage

 

Why no WWA for NE NJ/NYC. Looks like there should be one for sure

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Why no WWA for NE NJ/NYC. Looks like there should be one for sure

Wet roads

[nightknights]

Temp dropping went from 36 to 33 since it started snowing.  Starting to stick on paved surfaces

[HailMan06]

With the exception of @SnoSki14 and @nycsnow I’m surprised that no one else is posting about the wind potential tomorrow into Monday. That’s what I’m more interested in with this storm.