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Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay

Just a reminder   

Newman
Newman

The NAM allows for a more expansive precip shield with a 180-190kt upper level jet screaming over northern New England, putting Eastern PA, NJ, and NYC in a favorable right entrance region. The flatte

forkyfork
forkyfork

if you're worried about sun angle it's not much of a storm to begin with

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

I have a 345pm flight tomorrow out of Newark. I assume I shouldn't have any issues because especially in that location it would be starting for maybe an hour max and I can't foresee issues with delays. I would anticipate they want to get the plane out ASAP.  Thoughts?

Would just be wet most likely

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Feen

Feen

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snywx said:

Looks like a nice 4-6" event up here with some ip/zr to end. Classic SWFE up this way 

Hi,

I don't think this is a SWFE though. This is a major cutter, we just happen to have a brutally cold airmass in place. CAD would be a better term in my opinion

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
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With the primary low so far west, it will be pretty difficult to get a decent thump here in NYC. That's a strong warm nose, and then we get so warm that it turns to plain rain, and 1-2" of it. Considering temperatures will be warm tomorrow, and the wintry mix looks to start before sunset, I doubt anyone in NYC gets over 1 slushy inch.  Which means at Central Park, it'll be registered as a dusting.

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wdrag

wdrag

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Am watching AI and colder Canadians for this Sunday...  downslope - no qpf would lead to the interior warming Hud Valley and w of the Catskills.  AI just doesn't buy it... sooner or later AI will have give it up toward other model solutions, or we have a pretty big problem interior east facing hills along I84 from ne PA-nw CT, W MA.  So this will be a learning curve for me on AI 2m temps being within 4F of predicted at the selected hours. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

IMG_4845.png

Kind of funny that the NAM models gave much less on the 12z run but then the Euro beefs it up. Those NAM models are terrible. Euro, UKMET and RGEM all look pretty good. I'm guessing NAM will beef it back up a bit tonight. We have a decent chance to get 2 inches but it's probably more on colder surfaces. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

With the primary low so far west, it will be pretty difficult to get a decent thump here in NYC. That's a strong warm nose, and then we get so warm that it turns to plain rain, and 1-2" of it. Considering temperatures will be warm tomorrow, and the wintry mix looks to start before sunset, I doubt anyone in NYC gets over 1 slushy inch.  Which means at Central Park, it'll be registered as a dusting.

It’ll come down to rates.  NYC should have the easiest time accumulating since it’s not a pavement jungle like the airports are. Temps shouldn’t get too high due to thick overcast, maybe 34-36 but the rates could be fairly poor where you’ll end up more 7-8:1

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snow will probably fall but not much will accumulate south of I78. 

Mid level temps not great as WAA is moving in and not a whole lot of fgen signals at all.  It’s likely gonna be light rates with 8:1 ratios.  I wouldn’t be shocked if like .30 liquid falls but only 1.5 is measured due to time of day etc.   

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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6 hours ago, mikeysed said:

I have a 345pm flight tomorrow out of Newark. I assume I shouldn't have any issues because especially in that location it would be starting for maybe an hour max and I can't foresee issues with delays. I would anticipate they want to get the plane out ASAP.  Thoughts?

Saturday schedule, even for a holiday weekend such as this tends to be light.  Might be a bit heavier than most winter Saturdays but that will allow them deice and move aircraft easier than say a Thursday or Sunday afternoon.  Also runway conditions will be good with no risk of poor braking or treatment delays 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Long Island isn’t winning anything. This is a north west storm.

 

Youve been around a while to read the tea leaves…dont follow model dingleberries

Just like the storm 2 weeks ago ? Let's see before we say anything .

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