Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[EastonSN+]

Euro snow map pasted it in New England forum. Looks really good. Central Park 2 inches and 2 inch line kind of goes through Long Island.

[RU848789]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Euro snow map pasted it in New England forum. Looks really good. Central Park 2 inches and 2 inch line kind of goes through Long Island.

Meh, still the least snowy model and no improvement vs. 12Z.  Also, with modest rates and temps above 32F, this means difficulty accumulating during daylight (sun angle starting to play a bigger role now) and even after dark if temps are 33-34F, as per the model.  

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Meh, still the least snowy model and no improvement vs. 12Z.  Also, with modest rates and temps above 32F, this means difficulty accumulating during daylight (sun angle starting to play a bigger role now) and even after dark if temps are 33-34F, as per the model.  

Still if it's the least snowy model that's not bad. If it comes in heavy enough it will accumulate the city could get one to three.

[sussexcountyobs]

As of now, I'm assuming 3-4" Saturday. So if I shovel before bed and the change over, I'll have nothing to do Sunday morning. Just the way I like it.

[rgwp96]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

As of now, I'm assuming 3-4" Saturday. So if I shovel before bed and the change over, I'll have nothing to do Sunday morning. Just the way I like it.

Yes I’m def going to do it as soon as it changes over . It will be a night mare doing it in the am 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still if it's the least snowy model that's not bad. If it comes in heavy enough it will accumulate the city could get one to three.

It's also the driest with well under .25" by 0z. We'd be looking at snowfall rates of 1"/3 hours between 4 and 7pm. Not saying that won't accumulate but it wouldn't really be heavy

[RU848789]

Verbatim, the 0Z NAM is a huge improvement vs. 18Z, esp for NYC metro/CNJ. Sign me up.

[MJO812]

Ukie

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still if it's the least snowy model that's not bad. If it comes in heavy enough it will accumulate the city could get one to three.

somehow this area is less snowy than Montauk which sticks out into the ocean and begs to changeover first.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's also the driest with well under .25" by 0z. We'd be looking at snowfall rates of 1"/3 hours between 4 and 7pm. Not saying that won't accumulate but it wouldn't really be heavy

how many hours of snow before the changeover? from what I looked at it will snow from noon to 8 pm before it changes over.

[Stormlover74]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how many hours of snow before the changeover? from what I looked at it will snow from noon to 8 pm before it changes over.

No. 4 or 5 hours

[RU848789]

NWS snow and precip maps (1-1.5" of rain for most of us after the initial snow thump) and map of advisories for 2-3" (southernmost counties on the map) and 2-4" (north of those counties) are below, along with the NWS snow map for the NE US - huge snows for interior NY and New England, especially the ski resorts.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No. 4 or 5 hours

North of the city I think we're talking 8-10 hours, hopefully the rain amounts are overdone.

[Allsnow]

@RU848789 do you think this sticks to the pavement tomorrow in Metuchen? 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@RU848789 do you think this sticks to the pavement tomorrow in Metuchen? 

Doubtful 

[EastonSN+]

Close up.

[EastonSN+]

Borrowed from the New England forum 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Borrowed from the New England forum 

Somewhat hopeful for 2-4” on the north shore. Would be nice to get to 20” on the season which happens if 3” falls. We were able to lock in full snow coverage last night with some refrozen melt on top so maybe outside chance some can survive. 

[MJO812]

Nam barely had any accumulations now for tomorrow. Very weak snow rates. Euro was right.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam barely had any accumulations now for tomorrow. Very weak snow rates. Euro was right.

The initial overrunning that generates our snow shoots over us and hits New England on that run. Hopefully it’s wrong. 

[Tatamy]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam barely had any accumulations now for tomorrow. Very weak snow rates. Euro was right.

Going for the under with this one by me.

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam barely had any accumulations now for tomorrow. Very weak snow rates. Euro was right.

I think the NWS snowfall map is spot on, pretty much aligns with the EURO.

[Northof78]

2" line looks to hug Rt.78

[RU848789]

12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Going for the under with this one by me.

Same here and that was before seeing the non-snowy NAMs.  I just have trouble seeing much accumulation for areas south of 78 at 33-34F with light to moderate intensity, especially prior to about 4 pm, as the sun angle matters in mid-Feb with marginal temps and low intensity. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@RU848789 do you think this sticks to the pavement tomorrow in Metuchen? 

Just posted about that, lol.  No, accumulation on pavement is unlikely south of 78 IMO, assuming 33-34F surface temps and given at least some impact prior to about 4 pm from indirect sunlight in mid-Feb.  Unless we get some nice banding with rates more than 1/4" per hour (which was our rate for Tuesday), which I haven't seen much indication of.  

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Just posted about that, lol.  No, accumulation on pavement is unlikely south of 78 IMO, assuming 33-34F surface temps and given at least some impact prior to about 4 pm from indirect sunlight in mid-Feb.  Unless we get some nice banding with rates more than 1/4" per hour (which was our rate for Tuesday), which I haven't seen much indication of.  

The only hope is it looks we may not flip until after 0 or 01z now so some will fall after dark. But clearly the high res models are not enthused that much will fall let alone accumulate

[psv88]

Thinking maybe a slushy inch for most of the island tomorrow. No chance of 2-4”

[mikem81]

The NAM makes so many changes run to run I wouldnt discount a 2-3 inch front end snow band in the area between 4pm and 8pm. The other models seem to all have it

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The NAM makes so many changes run to run I wouldnt discount a 2-3 inch front end snow band in the area between 4pm and 8pm. The other models seem to all have it

The NAM showed nothing for the last event as well And the NWS didn't buy it.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nam barely had any accumulations now for tomorrow. Very weak snow rates. Euro was right.

The event happened already?