Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

Nam for Saturday 

[wishcast_hater]

Nam for Saturday 

Cut that in half and you get next to nothing.


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[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Cut that in half and you get next to nothing.


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Gfs and icon show more snow 

[MJO812]

Euro is also showing some snow 

[wishcast_hater]

Euro is also showing some snow 

If the storm is cutting west any initial snows we get will be lost to rain unless it dry slots. I wish high pressure would be slower to move out and feed us cold air.


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[JustinRP37]

Tomorrow and Sunday are going to stink with the warmth. Tonight we won’t notice much snow as we continue to warm up and change to rain. Saturday looks like a mix now which would keep numbers down. 

[MJO812]

Nam

[JustinRP37]

Hoping the 40s tomorrow and Sunday are very quick with minimal premature snow (rain). It looks like it will be setting us up for a great week of skiing but it will be a hard pack and icy in spots. Everywhere has a pretty great snow base going into the busiest week of the year for ski areas. 

[MJO812]

Icon has a few inches

[rgwp96]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon has a few inches

lol icon drops the biggest snow of the season for me on Saturday 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

lol icon drops the biggest snow of the season for me on Saturday 

Gfs

[MJO812]

Cmc is a tick south

[Franklin0529]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc us a tick south

Moto of the winter.... Deamplified/south 

[NEG NAO]

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Tomorrow and Sunday are going to stink with the warmth. Tonight we won’t notice much snow as we continue to warm up and change to rain. Saturday looks like a mix now which would keep numbers down. 

the warmth Sunday is no big deal as it will last only hours not days - back to the ice box starting Sunday night through next week........

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Hoping the 40s tomorrow and Sunday are very quick with minimal premature snow (rain). It looks like it will be setting us up for a great week of skiing but it will be a hard pack and icy in spots. Everywhere has a pretty great snow base going into the busiest week of the year for ski areas. 

it's going to be like 55 here on Sunday.  That's an old fashioned southeaster

 

[wdrag]

Ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Saturday Noon-8PM,  and the conservative ensemble chance of icing Saturday night.  This situation is complex but looks dangerous to me for parts of the hilly areas of I84 where temps are going to struggle to rise above freezing this weekend.  

 

In the meantime, I think CP has a good chance of 1" of snow-sleet Saturday afternoon-evening, maybe even 2" if lucky. Now we're within 4" of the Feb normal at CP.  All smalls but nice nonetheless.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's going to be like 55 here on Sunday.  That's an old fashioned southeaster

 

And in one nights run that has now changed to low 30's for Sunday highs here and upper 30's in NYC. That's a huge change inn one model run and all models seem to be on board. Still 2-3 days out wonder how far this can trend?

[JustinRP37]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

the warmth Sunday is no big deal as it will last only hours not days - back to the ice box starting Sunday night through next week........

Very true. It has been great for that this season. I just hate how we tend to get these one day warm ups during holiday weekends just to make the trails icy at the ski areas. Great for speed and those that are skilled but not as good for training your new to skiing or boarding folks.

[Snowshack]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Very true. It has been great for that this season. I just hate how we tend to get these one day warm ups during holiday weekends just to make the trails icy at the ski areas. Great for speed and those that are skilled but not as good for training your new to skiing or boarding folks.

It’s amazing how consistently the holiday weeks have kicked off with a cutter 

[ag3]

I can’t get excited by a little snow and then t-storms that wash it all away.

Next week looks exciting.

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And in one nights run that has now changed to low 30's for Sunday highs here and upper 30's in NYC. That's a huge change inn one model run and all models seem to be on board. Still 2-3 days out wonder how far this can trend?

It makes you wonder if that Pacific Jet is wreaking havoc with the forecasts.  It's been in the low 40s and foggy here this morning.  We are going to go up and down for a few days before the arctic outbreak hits Sunday night.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Saturday Noon-8PM,  and the conservative ensemble chance of icing Saturday night.  This situation is complex but looks dangerous to me for parts of the hilly areas of I84 where temps are going to struggle to rise above freezing this weekend.  

 

In the meantime, I think CP has a good chance of 1" of snow-sleet Saturday afternoon-evening, maybe even 2" if lucky. Now we're within 4" of the Feb normal at CP.  All smalls but nice nonetheless.

40% chance of 1 inch not bad.

 

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

40% chance of 1 inch not bad.

 

I have a nice 80% chance

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

40% chance of 1 inch not bad.

 

Not sure what you're reading but that's a 60%. chance for 1" NYC CP... even icing near NYC.  Probably a pretty decent from end snow, the temps unlikely to get out of the upper 30s-lower 40s NYC on Sunday and potentially serious ice storm I84 hilly terrain with some damage.  My concern is the gusty winds for the I84 corridor behind the storm Sunday night-Monday morning taking down ice laden limbs (snow laden well north of I84). 

OBS thread for Saturday event will probably post at 7AM Saturday.   I may run it as an OBS thread for the front end wintry and then tack on wind damage for Sun night-Monday, and whatever Feb melted water equivalent totals you have for Feb at that time (through the 16th) in that thread. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Not sure what you're reading but that's a 60%. chance for 1" NYC CP... even icing near NYC.  Probably a pretty decent from end snow, the temps unlikely to get out of the upper 30s-lower 40s NYC on Sunday and potentially serious ice storm I84 hilly terrain with some damage.  My concern is the gusty winds for the I84 corridor behind the storm Sunday night-Monday morning taking down ice laden limbs (snow laden well north of I84). 

OBS thread for Saturday event will probably post at 7AM Saturday.   I may run it as an OBS thread for the front end wintry and then tack on wind damage for Sun night-Monday, and whatever Feb melted water equivalent totals you have for Feb at that time (through the 16th) in that thread. 

I'm near JFK, the 40% stripe (darkest blue) goes right over the southern part of New York City.

[wdrag]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I'm near JFK, the 40% stripe goes right over the southern part of New York City.

I reference CP in most of my posts...  that's the heart of the city representing I think much of LI. If it goes good there, it usually, correct me if I'm wrong, it usually is pretty good for most of metro NY and northern LI.  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, wdrag said:

I reference CP in most of my posts...  that's the heart of the city representing I think much of LI. If it goes good there, it usually, correct me if I'm wrong, it usually is pretty good for most of metro NY and northern LI.  

But 40% for southern parts of the city aren't bad either.  For example, when my forecast says that there is a 40% chance of rain, it usually rains.  I find that anything of 30% or higher is likely to happen.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I reference CP in most of my posts...  that's the heart of the city representing I think much of LI. If it goes good there, it usually, correct me if I'm wrong, it usually is pretty good for most of metro NY and northern LI.  

I'm not sure what the population breakdown is where most people live.  Central Park is more representative of western and central regions than it is farther east.  I wouldn't say it's representative of the north shore of Long Island though.  Looking closer at the map, the northeastern part of Long Island has a higher likelihood of 1 inch snowfall (around 80%).

[hudsonvalley21]

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not sure what you're reading but that's a 60%. chance for 1" NYC CP... even icing near NYC.  Probably a pretty decent from end snow, the temps unlikely to get out of the upper 30s-lower 40s NYC on Sunday and potentially serious ice storm I84 hilly terrain with some damage.  My concern is the gusty winds for the I84 corridor behind the storm Sunday night-Monday morning taking down ice laden limbs (snow laden well north of I84). 

OBS thread for Saturday event will probably post at 7AM Saturday.   I may run it as an OBS thread for the front end wintry and then tack on wind damage for Sun night-Monday, and whatever Feb melted water equivalent totals you have for Feb at that time (through the 16th) in that thread. 

Thanks for the heads up Walt.  Then we go cold Sunday night with the cold front that comes thru keeping the frozen accumulations that we have left (especially for us interior folks) for some time and whatever happens around the 20th.

[EastonSN+]

The 6z Euro snowfall map has been posted in New England forum in case anyone's interested. Has one inch in Central Park. Eastern Long Island on a North shore gets 2 inches. CT shoreline is three to five. Westchester county approximate two to four.