Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I think we will have to wait until after mid month for a favorable pattern to get anything big now.  The trends for next week are all wrong as of today's runs.

And we may not get that favorable pattern - winter is winding down by then.  

Winter doesn't end until end of March.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I think we will have to wait until after mid month for a favorable pattern to get anything big now.  The trends for next week are all wrong as of today's runs.

And we may not get that favorable pattern - winter is winding down by then.  

This week is probably it. Repeat of last year where we snowed before the big pattern was supposedly coming and then winter shut off. It could reload after mid month but it's a crapshoot

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter doesn't end until end of March.

Winter ends when it wants to end.  We may get another window, but we are well onto the back 9 now.  Can kicking is not going to be a thing before too long, unless we are talking 2026.  

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea because the models don't change in the mid range. You do realize that the MJO hasn't even passed through 8 yet.

I'm not the slightest bit interested in the MJO index when we have multiple trackable snow threats in the mid range. With this setup, right now, if you tweak the shortwave progression and evolution, you get multiple significant snowstorms. Snow doesn't give a fck what the MJO is.

[eduggs]

17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I think we will have to wait until after mid month for a favorable pattern to get anything big now.  The trends for next week are all wrong as of today's runs.

And we may not get that favorable pattern - winter is winding down by then.  

Yup. We have to hope we cash in over the next 10 days. Long range stuff is just wishing and dreaming.

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yup. We have to hope we cash in over the next 10 days. Long range stuff is just wishing and dreaming.

I don't entirely agree 'wishing and dreaming'...I don't think the euro dreams of electric sheep...

lifted from the New England thread:

[Snowlover11]

fab february to another depressing time. fun stuff.  winters are cooked here.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fab february to another depressing time. fun stuff.  winters are cooked here.

Been reading about "screams potential" stuff here for years; it rarely pays off. Take it one week at a time, one storm at a time. We had a strange run in the 2000's, unlike any I saw as a kid or even in early adulthood. This is more like it, winters were colder and less snowy. That said, there weren't a ton of sleet events either, It snowed or it rained. Usually got a good snow ( 4-6 ) once or twice a season. So far we have fallen short here this year, but its been a dry year all around. We'll see. 

[eduggs]

It could still work out favorably. If the Tue shortwave turns out slightly sharper and surface temps stay at or below freezing, that's a moderate snowstorm right there. Possibly even with an enjoyable, partly daytime, real-snowstorm feel.

If the follow up shortwave turns out slightly flatter, there is a very real possibility of another moderate snowstorm or snow to ice. This event could even turn out to have more QPF. Two significant events within two days is rare. In fact it's conceivable it goes something like 2" - 4" - 4" over 6 days including Sunday.

And there's yet another wave lurking towards the LR.

If forced to guess right now, I'd go with: Tue ends up a light event - C-2. And Thur. is ice to heavy rain. But the ICON 24+hr snow scenario is not off the table either.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fab february to another depressing time. fun stuff.  winters are cooked here.

Jeez some of you are just miserable. We are not even in the favorable pattern yet.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez some of you are just miserable. We are not even in the favorable pattern yet.

I was not aware that the weather gods made such definitive proclamations.

[eduggs]

If it snows in an unfavorable pattern and rains in a favorable pattern, what does favorable pattern mean?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

If it snows in an unfavorable pattern and rains in a favorable pattern, what does favorable pattern mean?

if there's a screaming fast flow, it's not a favorable pattern.

Temperatures below freezing by themselves do not make for a favorable pattern.

 

[Franklin0529]

Richmond gets a foot on Tuesday on the GFS. We get nada

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Richmond gets a foot on Tuesday on the GFS. We get nada

It really does look like the beginning of the last blocking episode in January where the Mid-Atlantic scored as well.

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Richmond gets a foot on Tuesday on the GFS. We get nada

The kind of event depicted on the GFS is rare. In fact, since 1895, there were just 5 storms that brought 6" or more to Richmond, less than 1" snowfall to NYC, and no measurable snowfall to Raleigh. None of those storms brought more than 10" to Richmond. In other words, the GFS is showing a very uncommon event. Moreover, none of those events had a 500 mb pattern that resembled the one forecast on the GFS.

Extreme outcomes require strong evidence. For now, the GFS is an outlier with what would what would be a very uncommon scenario. Until there is support, one should assume that its solution is unlikely.

IMO, the events shown on the 12z ECMWF and GGEM are far more plausible.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The kind of event depicted on the GFS is rare. In fact, since 1895, there were just 5 storms that brought 6" or more to Richmond, less than 1" snowfall to NYC, and no measurable snowfall to Raleigh. None of those storms brought more than 10" to Richmond. In other words, the GFS is showing a very uncommon event. Moreover, none of those events had a 500 mb pattern that resembled the one forecast on the GFS.

Extreme outcomes require strong evidence. For now, the GFS is an outlier with what would what would be a very uncommon scenario. Until there is support, one should assume that its solution is unlikely.

IMO, the events shown on the 12z ECMWF and GGEM are far more plausible.

Don, was February 1989 one of those rare storms?

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Don, was February 1989 one of those rare storms?

 

No.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It really does look like the beginning of the last blocking episode in January where the Mid-Atlantic scored as well.

The difference being that time that no one north of there did very well.

The block was too strong.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Euro even more south now.  I have next to no confidence still since we lack a -NAO and have a SE ridge here.  The pattern otherwise argues this should be somewhat squashed and compacted but the 18Z Euro shows what could happen and I have seen happen before in these setups.  Interior areas like E PA and SE NY get missed but as the surface low gets more east off the Delmarva it can ride close enough for the coastal areas to see snow.   This event from 2/1985 is a similar match, parts of LI saw 6 inches.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0205.php

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0206.php

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Euro even more south now.  I have next to no confidence still since we lack a -NAO and have a SE ridge here.  The pattern otherwise argues this should be somewhat squashed and compacted but the 18Z Euro shows what could happen and I have seen happen before in these setups.  Interior areas like E PA and SE NY get missed but as the surface low gets more east off the Delmarva it can ride close enough for the coastal areas to see snow.   This event from 2/1985 is a similar match, parts of LI saw 6 inches.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0205.php

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0206.php

Damn, I don't remember any snow that month, all I remember is that February was warm after that historic arctic  outbreak in January 1985.

 

[SnowGoose69]

00z ICON barely even hits DC lol.  When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

00z ICON barely even hits DC lol.  When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond

a lot of people will have egg on their face if this south trend continues

.like I said elsewhere, this isn't like astronomy, it's nowhere close to an exact science.

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

a lot of people will have egg on their face if this south trend continues

.like I said elsewhere, this isn't like astronomy, it's nowhere close to an exact science.

 

So all this hooey and in the end, we're looking at some sleet tomorrow and maybe nothing else for next week....am I getting this right so far?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

So all this hooey and in the end, we're looking at some sleet tomorrow and maybe nothing else for next week....am I getting this right so far?

We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event.  Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So all this hooey and in the end, we're looking at some sleet tomorrow and maybe nothing else for next week....am I getting this right so far?

we really don't know yet but using our latitude and climo as reference, it's best not to expect more than a couple of inches.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event.  Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.

let's hope that following week pattern plays out, it still looks like the temperatures will be borderline, there dont seem to be any real cold outbreaks coming up.

Temperatures in the 30s are cold especially for late February, but borderline when it comes to snow.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs trying to make next week's waves 1 storm

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we really don't know yet but using our latitude and climo as reference, it's best not to expect more than a couple of inches.

 

Fact is I have not needed a snow blower this winter at all, and only used it once because I bothered to gas it up. This more than qualifies as a dud winter for me. In my experience, if nothing big happens by mid Feb, you can hang it up. 

[cleetussnow]

First storm miss south, second storm LP over lake Erie, cold rain.