Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[nycsnow]

Best gfs run so far

Image

 

[SnowGoose69]

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

Past hour it’s been making a nice jump 

[nycsnow]

Rap continues to get better as well

[Dark Star]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

But there is a right answer.  The key is picking the right one and why...

[wishcast_hater]

How is this weekends storm looking? Does the GFS win by keeping us in the cold side of the storm or the Euro on the warm side? 

[RU848789]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

I was living in Highland Park, NJ at the time, but don't recall that storm - how did it end up?  What are your thoughts for tonight (siap)?  

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

How is this weekends storm looking? Does the GFS win by keeping us in the cold side of the storm or the Euro on the warm side? 

GFS has snow at the start but there is screaming south flow.  Not sure I buy that except inland

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

The HRRR has been pretty far off on the radar forecast vs. actual, especially for the 6Z run, which had low snowfall like 18Z does (12Z HRRR had much more snow to the NW), plus it's a significant outlier.  The other day the NAM was a significant outlier and only ended up being partly right, i.e., for areas SW of about Allentown to NB, where most got little snow and a lot of sleet and ZR, but it got the precip amount and type NE of that line completely wrong, especially for NENJ/NYC/LI and the part it got right was in its wheelhouse of thermals aloft, whereas the HRRR isn't known for having some great skill in coastal snowfall.  So, I'm ignoring it and obviously the NWS and others are too.  Let's hope they're all correct.  

One of the best AFDs I've read in awhile, as I thought they did a great job of explaining their rationale for rejecting the HRRR (better than I did, which is not a surprise) and for why they think the storm will overperform a bit (good jet streak and frontogenesis) and deliver 12-13:1 ratio snow.  

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Low pressure beginning to develop over the southeast this
afternoon and will push ENE off the southern Middle Atlantic
this evening into tonight. The region will continue to lie on
the northern periphery of the precip shield. The latest model
trends all support a bump up in liquid equivalent with around a
few hundredths well inland, around a tenth southern portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT, 0.15-0.20" in the NYC
metro, and around 0.25" across Long Island. The NAM still
appears to be the wettest of the guidance across the area,
especially across the southern half with as much as 0.3" in NYC
and near 0.4" across eastern Long Island. The 18z NAM has
lowered QPF just slightly, but overall remains consistent with
its last several cycles. Most of the 12z CAMs have come into
better agreement with the rest of the model consensus. The HRRR
is one of the drier models, but have noted it be to dry at times
in previous events when the region is on the northern
periphery.

There are also several key ingredients that support the trend
upward in liquid equivalent and resulting snow accumulation
including a stronger 700mb frontogenesis signal combining with
strong upper divergence from a 170-190 kt departing polar jet
streak to our north. Models do tend to struggle with the
combination of these features and have seen several past events
over perform with lift accompanying a strong upper jet. The
other factor is the majority of the model suite is indicating
enhancement of the precip shield from Southern NJ up into the
area at least the southeast portion of the area tonight as the
coastal low emerges off the coast. Thermal profiles are also
supporting an all snow event. Soundings indicate deep ice
saturation within the dendritic growth zone for several hours
tonight, especially across Long Island and portions of the NYC
metro. The strongest lift appears to occur between 10pm and 2am
with a decrease the rest of the night.

The snow will begin to overspread from the south tonight between
7-9pm, becoming steady and continuing through the early morning
hours. There is a period between about 10pm and 2am where
snowfall rates could run between 0.25-0.50" per hour. There is
even a low probability snowfall rates could briefly approach 1"
per hour across Long Island from around 11pm-1am as the
strongest forcing and deepest moisture combine. Snowfall rates
will drop off from west to east from 3am to 5am. Some flurries
may linger towards day break, but accumulating snow should end
before sunrise.

Snow to liquid ratios look higher with this event given we are
on the northern periphery of the low and soundings show more of
an ice saturation signal over one with deeper supercooled water
saturation signal. For these reasons have gone closer to a
12-13:1 ratio.

Updated snow totals are around 3 inches with potential of a few
spots approaching 4 inches across Long Island. Elsewhere across
the NYC metro and much of NE NJ and coastal CT, generally 1-2
inches are forecast. Locations closer to the south shore in
Staten Island and southern Brooklyn and southern Queens could
see up to 3 inches. More locations could see closer to 3 inches
in the NYC metro and NE NJ if a wetter and further north trend
continues. Amounts across the interior will be lower and
generally less than an inch as this area is closer to subsidence
from the high building in from the north.

[eduggs]

Could be a pretty sharp cutoff. I'm cautiously optimistic for Monmouth County, NJ across to the southern shore of LI. But I'm not too excited for NENJ to Rockland Co. NY. NYC right on the boundary between plowable and nuisance.

[ag3]

Enjoy any snow you get tonight. Stop complaining.

Any accumulating snow is good.

[nycsnow]

Hrr not budging 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Enjoy any snow you get tonight. Stop complaining.

Any accumulating snow is good.

And more snow Saturday 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrr not budging 

Awful model

[weatherpruf]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

Never saw a flake here in Woodbridge. Had school canceled in Jackson. Don't think they saw anything either.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrr not budging 

Air is very dry. I think it shouldn't be ignored. 

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I was living in Highland Park, NJ at the time, but don't recall that storm - how did it end up?  What are your thoughts for tonight (siap)?  

We saw nothing up here; the mets on tv said a strong NW wind acted like a blow dryer. That's probably why you don't recall it, because it was a nothingburger here. I only remember because it was my first year teaching and I got a call the night before canceling school down in Jackson, where I was teaching ( awful hour long commute at 6 am, but jobs were scarce ). I waited for the big storm and it never came.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Air is very dry. I think it shouldn't be ignored. 

Kind of on its own though 

[RU848789]

Almost forgot - prediction time., I'll go with 2.8" for our house, as I think the storm will overperform a bit vs. the 2.4" forecast for Metuchen, due to good snow/liquid ratios and the jet streak dynamics the NWS has discussed, along with decent frontogenetics as per several models and most of the models increasing snowfall (a little bit) at 12/18Z (except the HRRR which is a major outlier and is obviously being ignored by the NWS and others). Would be a bit disappointed with <2", but will still enjoy it.  

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We saw nothing up here; the mets on tv said a strong NW wind acted like a blow dryer. That's probably why you don't recall it, because it was a nothingburger here. I only remember because it was my first year teaching and I got a call the night before canceling school down in Jackson, where I was teaching ( awful hour long commute at 6 am, but jobs were scarce ). I waited for the big storm and it never came.

It only really hit the 10 miles or so along the Jersey shore.  I was NW of Philly-never saw anything and the sun was visible through the overcast...terrible.   Was in HS and they wisely didn't cancel.

-

Radar on this one shows the snow having trouble moving north-could be issues for anyone north of NYC (Upton has 1-2 here but not sure looking at radar)

[SnowGoose69]

Went back and looked at 15z HRRR and 12Z NAM, at 22Z the NAM had the snow N of ACY with a steady advancement by 23Z which is happening, the HRRR barely had it into ACY by 23Z.  Its possible the HRRR will just keep playing catch up all night

[nycsnow]

Radar filling in off the coast 

[dseagull]

Coming down moderately now barnegat  bay.  Roads just wet.  All other surfaces covered quickly 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Radar filling in off the coast 

Its steadily moving north now, its close to the 3km NAM's 23Z position of it, that had snow into JFK by 0030Z.  I still think that could be a bit too fast, even for just flurries.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its steadily moving north now, its close to the 3km NAM's 23Z position of it, that had snow into JFK by 0030Z.  I still think that could be a bit too fast, even for just flurries.

There’s some light returns popping up just south of jfk and south shore li not sure if it reaches ground though 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

There’s some light returns popping up just south of jfk and south shore li not sure if it reaches ground though 

Snow has been reaching the ground almost everywhere once ceilings reach 5000-7000ft so its not taking too long once you get radar echoes over you

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is.  I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW

that was a forecast for 6-8

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It only really hit the 10 miles or so along the Jersey shore.  I was NW of Philly-never saw anything and the sun was visible through the overcast...terrible.   Was in HS and they wisely didn't cancel.

-

Radar on this one shows the snow having trouble moving north-could be issues for anyone north of NYC (Upton has 1-2 here but not sure looking at radar)

what a busted forecast that was, it would still be a bust today, as would December 1989 (in the opposite direction)

[donsutherland1]

Early on, the HRRR seems to be faring poorly in and around the Washington, DC area. It remains to be seen how this will translate farther north.

Nevertheless, I'm still comfortable with the idea of a 1"-3" snowfall in and near New York City with perhaps 2"-4" on the south shore of Long Island.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a forecast for 6-8

 

This is quite amazing, I mentioned that storm to a friend around the time of my post, he sent me this link off youutube.  The first weather segment is from the day before but you can scroll through and watch Joe Cioffi get progressively more nervous and eventually just mad about the forecast which appears its going to bust.  Who'd have known a broadcast from that day would be on youtube.