Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[nycsnow]

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[nycsnow]

Nam looks real good

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[MJO812]

SNJ mixes on the Nam 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, MJO812 said:

SNJ mixes on the Nam 

Don’t worry. It’s gonna rain the following night lol 

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

Oh nam how much i want to trust you

[ag3]

Wagons north!!!!!!

[nycsnow]

Just now, ag3 said:

Wagons north!!!!!!

Beautiful 

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[ag3]

Looks like 3km is coming north as well?

[Allsnow]

Nam!!!

[MJO812]

Just now, ag3 said:

Looks like 3km is coming north as well?

Yes

[ag3]

Comparing to 18z, that’s a pretty significant shift north.

[Rjay]

Just a reminder 

 

[nycsnow]

3k

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[nycsnow]

Just now, Rjay said:

Just a reminder 

 

Nam was pretty good last event from what I remember 

[Rjay]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Nam was pretty good last event from what I remember 

NAM was awful

[ag3]

Just now, nycsnow said:

3k

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Wow.

[MJO812]

3k Nam is 3-6 for NYC especially the southern shore

 

[Newman]

The NAM allows for a more expansive precip shield with a 180-190kt upper level jet screaming over northern New England, putting Eastern PA, NJ, and NYC in a favorable right entrance region. The flatter models aren't really all that different with MSLP placement, it's the jet and SER flex that's different 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Nam was pretty good last event from what I remember 

No. It had nothing snow in the city or LI. The previous event it did decently

[ag3]

Just now, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is 3-6 for NYC especially the southern shore

 

Need the Rgem to follow suit. Will be out by 9:55pm.

[nycsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

No. It had nothing snow in the city or LI. The previous event it did decently

Ah that’s what it was I remember a recent event it did ok. Well the models have been hit or miss this year 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

The NAM allows for a more expansive precip shield with a 180-190kt upper level jet screaming over northern New England, putting Eastern PA, NJ, and NYC in a favorable right entrance region. The flatter models aren't really all that different with MSLP placement, it's the jet and SER flex that's different 

Upton mentioned this in their AFD and said it could bring advisory level into nyc 

[ag3]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Ah that’s what it was I remember a recent event it did ok. Well the models have been hit or miss this year 

Rgem and Hrdps (Gem-Lam) were good with the last event.

[vegan_edible]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Just a reminder 

 

 

[Newman]

Just to highlight the differences and what I'm talking about, here's a comparison between the 18z RGEM vs 0z NAM. These small differences make a difference with getting precip into NYC and northern Jersey

 

[nycsnow]

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[SnoSki14]

Nam would probably be an advisory level (2-4") event here in central NJ. Also NWS mentioned higher ratios 13:1 vs 10:1 possible. 

[MJO812]

Fv3 has nothing for NYC lol

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam would probably be an advisory level (2-4") event here in central NJ. Also NWS mentioned higher ratios 13:1 vs 10:1 possible. 

Maybe more