Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's only 1 run. 

Yup, and there will be a few dozen more before this stretch is over.

The center of modeled impact has slowly been shifting towards NE and away from the mid-Atl over the past few days. I was hoping today might be a counter trend, but it looks like that's not the case. To bet against more typical climo and in favor of something highly anomalous, you need overwhelming evidence.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro running soon for the tiebreaker......any predictions ?

Even the UKMET came slightly south from 12z so it likely comes south as well, at this range though it means little, if it did this tomorrow night I think its more of an issue, there's a big difference in an across the board swing at 80-90 hours than 120

[eduggs]

0z GEFS is like 1" for the Tue/Wed wave, 2-3" for Thurs, and another 1" for Sat. Quite a drop off for early week. And a good percentage of the precipitation is modeled as non-snow.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

0z GEFS is like 1" for the Tue/Wed wave, 2-3" for Thurs, and another 1" for Sat. Quite a drop off for early week. And a good percentage of the precipitation is modeled as non-snow.

Euro came in identical to previous run. 10-12" region wide 

[Franklin0529]

 

[NEG NAO]

The 0z Euro is NOT suppressed

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Euro came in identical to previous run. 10-12" region wide 

you are including sundays storm here is the 1st mid week totals

[NEG NAO]

Just a reminder post the 24 HR snowfall maps now because of these multiple storms

 

[MJO812]

6z euro

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

6z euro

 

Likely have to wait til this first storm moves out, again, if this one tomorrow and Sunday is more south and we see mainly snow even down close to the city it probably increases the risk this event on Tuesday ends up south.  I've sort of been leaning towards this being an NYC south event for a few days.

[eduggs]

It seems like odds of a 6" event next week have decreased. The "wave" (Tue) with the most favorable thermals has the least upper level support, PVA, frontogenesis etc. It's also weakening over time. Even the relatively wet Euro is mostly just a 3 hr burst with a little light stuff to begin and end. And the waves that follow take on a slightly unfavorable upper level orientation right now.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It seems like odds of a 6" event next week have decreased. The "wave" (Tue) with the most favorable thermals has the least upper level support, PVA, frontogenesis etc. It's also weakening over time. Even the relatively wet Euro is mostly just a 3 hr burst with a little light stuff to begin and end. And the waves that follow take on a slightly unfavorable upper level orientation right now.

What decreased?

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

0z GEFS is like 1" for the Tue/Wed wave, 2-3" for Thurs, and another 1" for Sat. Quite a drop off for early week. And a good percentage of the precipitation is modeled as non-snow.

any snow is good snow.  First goal is to make it to 10" for the season

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It seems like odds of a 6" event next week have decreased. The "wave" (Tue) with the most favorable thermals has the least upper level support, PVA, frontogenesis etc. It's also weakening over time. Even the relatively wet Euro is mostly just a 3 hr burst with a little light stuff to begin and end. And the waves that follow take on a slightly unfavorable upper level orientation right now.

Huh

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

any snow is good snow.  First goal is to make it to 10" for the season

I'm naturally inclined to agree. But whatever fell early yesterday morning was not good. It did not enhance my enjoyment of the day at all. And we may have more of these ice to rain events coming, which sour the enthusiasm for minor snow events.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm naturally inclined to agree. But whatever fell early yesterday morning was not good. It did not enhance my enjoyment of the day at all. And we may have more of these ice to rain events coming, which sour the enthusiasm for minor snow events.

Same. I hate icy slush.  It would be much better to get zero instead of that.  Had a doctor's appt to get to and I wanted that stuff to melt ASAP.

 

[Allsnow]

Gfs more amped for next week. Should be north of 06z 

[Allsnow]

FWIW eps/euro has been very consistent for several days now concerning next weeks storm 

[Allsnow]

CMC coming north 

[winterwx21]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC coming north 

CMC is nice for late Tuesday. Hopefully we can get a few inches of slop tomorrow night, but the late Tuesday storm looks better because mixing doesn't look likely. 

[eduggs]

12z CMC and GFS... nice runs for southern VT!

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully the first storm shifts the boundary south for the next wave 

[eduggs]

I had really hoped we would be in a stronger position at this point. Instead we face a succession of very tenuous threats. Lots of failure modes here. Yes there are still several legit snow threats. But right now the only strong chance for 6"+ is the far northern suburbs on Sunday.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie and euro are both decent hits. Ukie more so and would be 6+ for many over a 2 day period. Definitely want to be further south for Tuesday Wednesday wave as of now

[eduggs]

Pretty strong agreement among the GEFS members that Tue is a light/fringe event south and Thursday is a warm - mostly liquid event. Fortunately the members tend to cluster fairly reliably around the operational run.

[eduggs]

12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM)  No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM)  No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.

Yea because the models don't change in the mid range. You do realize that the MJO hasn't even passed through 8 yet.

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

I'm naturally inclined to agree. But whatever fell early yesterday morning was not good. It did not enhance my enjoyment of the day at all. And we may have more of these ice to rain events coming, which sour the enthusiasm for minor snow events.

Agreed. Henry Marguisity used to call them "garbage." 

[weatherpruf]

37 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM)  No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.

I wouldn't mind some decent rain, but we can't even manage that. I need my sump pump pipe to thaw out..

[cleetussnow]

I think we will have to wait until after mid month for a favorable pattern to get anything big now.  The trends for next week are all wrong as of today's runs.

And we may not get that favorable pattern - winter is winding down by then.