Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Allsnow]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Yea Nam should be ok… just slower 

Costal is closer to the coast so nyc/LI/Nj do the same 

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don't need a blockbuster. 3 to 6 would be nice

The city just got that even though I know you guys in Central Jersey got shafted.

[nycsnow]

Image

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Image

 

3k Nam is 2-4 here

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is 2-4 here

So close a little bump north is huge 

[Franklin0529]

I'd take that all day. 

 

[Allsnow]

Icon bumped north 

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 hours ago, dseagull said:

The 80s were tough.  I have a hard time reminding others in my family that despite the cold, we had very few big snows.  Having said that, we actually had true Alberta Clippers back then.  My nephew is currently doing a study on pattern changes that have led to the disappearance of frequent clippers. 

 

Some of those systems would give some surprises.  

Back then it seemed like clippers were all we had.  The sense was that anything big coming up the coast was  preordained to be a heartbreaker snow to rain, if not outright rain for those of us near the coast.  But if you could get in that narrow target zone of the clipper you were in business.  Small business, but still business.

And whereas today, a storm taking the traditional clipper path seems to frequently be a bad setup for us, where it's always marginal, back then I don't recall that being a problem (maybe because generally it was colder?)  Then you'd get a nice enhancement etc action once in a while that would turn the 2-4 into the beloved 3-6 (6-12 in the 80s was fantasyland except for the few famous storms.)

Edit:  one more thing.  The biggest nod to how great the 2000-2018 period was is that we don't refer storms as the "Blizzard of '78", "Blizzard of '83", etc.  as if we be hearty sea captains.  We had so many storms during that time that that kind of went away. 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon bumped north 

Rgem also but light precip 

[Dark Star]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem also but light precip 

All three systems down the tubes...

[MJO812]

Just now, Dark Star said:

All three systems down the tubes...

Uh? I'm excited for 1-2.

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

All three systems down the tubes...

I had confidence that would happen. Some years just suck. This is one of them.I'm not sure following these models is worth much these days; they shift around so much it's hard to get excited about anything at all. In a few weeks this torture will be over. I'm confident of that.

[MJO812]

[lee59]

As much as I would like a good Nor'easter, (maybe next week), this winter with numerous small events and cold temperatures has at least a decent winter feel.

[kat5hurricane]

Weird looking at some of the posts in this thread. This winter has been good here as I drive around today back and forth from Queens to Long Island looking at piles of snow all along the way yet others not too far away in a similar climate in Central Jersey are talking about how much the winter sucks and how torturous it's been. Weird, very localized good winter I guess.

[nycsnow]

Tuesday night, a wave of low pressure will pass well south of
Long Island, but bring some light snow accumulation the the
area. Our area is on the northern edge of the expected
precipitation shield, so southern locations are expected to
receive more snowfall. Latest forecast has trended in up in QPF
and snow amount for a few reasons. An upper level jet streak to
our north has slowly been trending farther north, which places
us under the right entrance region. Some guidance has also been
trending stronger in addition to the northward shift. Given the
support from the upper jet, the thinking is that QPF across much
of the guidance could be underdone. Did not make a major
change, but have up to 0.20 inches of QPF across the southern
half of the area. HREF QPF amounts look way underdone as the
CAMs are likely struggling with the jet. The NAM is one of the
highest with 0.30 inches, which is not completely out of the
question, but before trending closer to those totals would like
to see a little more support from other guidance. It is worth
noting that the 18z NAM brings an enhanced area of 700mb
frontogenesis closer to our area than previous runs and other
guidance. This trend will need to be monitored because this
would support higher QPF as well. Also went with higher SLRs
than the previous forecast (around 13:1 average) which is
leading to 2 to 2.5 inches across NYC, Long Island and portions
of northeast NJ. Isolated 3 inch amounts are possible along the
immediate south coast. Farther north totals will be closer to .5
inches to 1 inch and northern interior CT and Lower Hudson
Valley likely see less than .5 inches.

Given the current totals, no headlines were issued. If QPF continues
to trend up it is possible that a Winter Weather Advisory would be
needed for Long Island, NYC and portions of northeast NJ

[winterwx21]

Ukie not bad on the 18z run too. Gets 2 inches about up to our area. Everything seems on track for a 1 to 3 inch snowfall. I hope to see the HRRR start bumping north on the 0z run. 

[Krs4Lfe]

22 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Weird looking at some of the posts in this thread. This winter has been good here as I drive around today back and forth from Queens to Long Island looking at piles of snow all along the way yet others not too far away in a similar climate in Central Jersey are talking about how much the winter sucks and how torturous it's been. Weird, very localized good winter I guess.

I think everyone’s version of a good winter is different. Sure this winter has been colder than normal and definitely the coldest we’ve seen since last decade. But 10” of snow so far is almost nothing for these parts, when the average per year is generally 27-30”. It’ll take a KU just to reach average this year. And it won’t happen. Some winters just show their cards early. This winter is one of them. We won’t have to worry about it in a few weeks though, spring is coming 

[rgwp96]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh? I'm excited for 1-2.

Smh 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’ll take a cold winter with some 2-3” events over an above average winter. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think everyone’s version of a good winter is different. Sure this winter has been colder than normal and definitely the coldest we’ve seen since last decade. But 10” of snow so far is almost nothing for these parts, when the average per year is generally 27-30”. It’ll take a KU just to reach average this year. And it won’t happen. Some winters just show their cards early. This winter is one of them. We won’t have to worry about it in a few weeks though, spring is coming 

We're. generally starved for moisture, have been for awhile. Can't expect big snows when near drought conditions still predominate. One of the reasons my sump pipe froze was not just the colder temps, but not enough rain to keep it running; it usually spits out every few hours; that hasn't been happening with the lack of rain. So water from the street was able to back up into it and freeze. Today it finally thawed thank God.

[wdrag]

Hi!.  Will start the OBS thread tomorrow morning so no one gets confused with too many threads.  

Been debating whether to run it for two events but for now will probably be 4P Tue-Noon Wed, figuring no problems anywhere Wed afternoon except nw NJ hills into the Poconos.  

Have seen this before where a snow event occurs (tomorrow night), then the northeast wind saturated lowest 5-10k keeps spitting pockets of pesky light snow, freezing drizzle-drizzle (temp dependent) through the day Wednesday.

Below what WSSI-P is saying...minor travel problems for s LI.  So it occurs at night when fewer are on the road and below criteria for an advisory, but this to me looks like slippery stretches at times up to I80, NYC-LI as the northern edge travel issues. 

I'll check back tomorrow morning 630-8A. 

 

 

[nycsnow]

Sref tick north 

Image

 

[Allsnow]

AI bumped north 

 

.1 past nyc 

 

.2 to Driscoll bridge 

[winterwx21]

HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter. 

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter. 

Also super long range 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter. 

HRRR is bad LR. Was terribly off past 2 storms

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter. 

It only gets the 3" line to central delaware. It's wrong or a huge bust everywhere

[nycsnow]

Nam coming in north with better precip shield 

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Nam coming in north with better precip shield 

Yep