Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You downplayed last storm and many places for 3-5. Take 1 storm at at a time.

You said storms can't "cut" in this pattern

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You said storms can't "cut" in this pattern

It will be hard to cut with the block. The storms should deamp but not sure how much and keep defending him. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It will be hard to cut with the block. The storms should deamp but not sure how much and keep defending him. 

This weekend looks like a major washout. It could trend colder but seems doubtful it would be nearly enough for anything frozen

[Stormlover74]

Rgem unfortunately is south

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem unfortunately is south

The low pressure itself is actually a bit north it's just that the precept shield is a bit more condensed. Just noise.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem unfortunately is south

Better than 6z but yes less snow for everyone.  Same with the Icon.

[Allsnow]

Front end looking better Wednesday night 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It will be hard to cut with the block. The storms should deamp but not sure how much and keep defending him. 

It depends on a lot of factors. Where is the block, where is the TPV? Is there a trough out west. 

Thursday's wave will easily cut. I think the next one will be further south but that could still mean mix/rain. 

Beyond the 20th if the +PNA happens then our odds at snowfall go up again with AO likely staying negative and a favorable MJO. That doesn't mean suppression can't happen though. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Front end looking better Wednesday night 

Yep 

Rgem 

[Allsnow]

AI continues to drift south with tomorrow nights event.

 

imo that’s not good 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

AI continues to drift south with tomorrow nights event.

 

imo that’s not good 

 This is a general 1-3 up to nyc and alittle more south and then alot more SNJ southward.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI continues to drift south with tomorrow nights event.

 

imo that’s not good 

Can't buy a favorable trend this winter. Congrats DC south again 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Can't buy a favorable trend this winter. Congrats DC south again 

Yup. If this was our area in the sweet spot the trend north would have started last night 

[eduggs]

For Thurs, it actually helps that the shortwave has sharpened and trended so far northwest since it puts the main surge of warm air into OH and WPA and leaves plenty of room for CAD. The energy is kind of split with some heading up into Ontario and another area of nice vorticity and UVV sliding through our area Wed night. With a different evolution this might have been a significant snowstorm. As is, it could be a solid plowable (thump) event similar to Sat night, but with the local maxes possibly shifted around somewhat.

[NEG NAO]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You downplayed last storm and many places for 3-5. Take 1 storm at at a time.

to be fair it was correct to downplay the storm in some areas like us folks here in Central NJ but other folks to the north and east had more snow - I think we got caught in the system primary to secondary transfer zone here in central NJ and others to the east got the full effect from the developing low that transferred to the coast and also the system was moving fast to the east

[Allsnow]

The ensembles this time last week had nothing for the Chicago area lol

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

to be fair it was correct to downplay the storm in some areas like us folks here in Central NJ but other folks to the north and east had more snow - I think we got caught in the system primary to secondary transfer zone here in central NJ and others to the east got the full effect from the developing low that transferred to the coast and also the system was moving fast to the east

I neither downplayed nor hyped this event. Since I was out of the area, in an effort not to get emotionally drawn in, I largely ignored it.

There were local winners and losers for sure, as often happens. The Hudson Valley from Orange/Putnam all the way to Albany didn't do as well as some modeling indicated. PA didn't get much. But LI did really well. It was a short-duration, high intensity event... which can be quite enjoyable. High impact despite modest snow accumulations.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I neither downplayed nor hyped this event. Since I was out of the area, in an effort not to get emotionally drawn in, I largely ignored it.

There were local winners and losers for sure, as often happens. The Hudson Valley from Orange/Putnam all the way to Albany didn't do as well as some modeling indicated. PA didn't get much. But LI did really well. It was a short-duration, high intensity event... which can be quite enjoyable. High impact despite modest snow accumulations.

 

Parts of nyc and LI didn’t better then SNE 

 

Bos 5 and NYC 3 isn’t a huge difference 

[MJO812]

Gfs drier for tonight 

1-2 for NYC and less in NJ.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The ensembles this time last week had nothing for the Chicago area lol

At least they look pretty good for Central Park they had 11.5 on the mean in Central Park is at 4.1. let's see if they get close.

[eduggs]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

At least they look pretty good for Central Park they had 11.5 on the mean in Central Park is at 4.1. let's see if they get close.

There were dozens of GFS ensemble runs last week that showed a range of mean 10-day snowfall totals for NYC... something like 6-15". As was pointed out multiple times, the 10-day total included a parade of mostly minor events. Some areas are running a little ahead of the multi-day ensemble consensus and other areas a little behind. What's missing is the 6" snowstorm as the cherry on top.

[eduggs]

Nothing high-end to track through this period. Thump still on track for Wed night. But big threats mostly fizzled. Same story since 2021 I believe.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nothing high-end to track through this period. Thump still on track for Wed night. But big threats mostly fizzled. Same story since 2021 I believe.

We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.

Don't need a blockbuster. 3 to 6 would be nice

[winterwx21]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs drier for tonight 

1-2 for NYC and less in NJ.

Pretty much everything is showing 1 to 2 right now, except for the slightly more bullish NAM that shows a few inches. Still enough time for a north bump, but right now 1 to 3 looks like a good forecast. 

Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night before the mixing. This is the winter of numerous light snowfalls. Wish we could get a bigger snowstorm, but at least this beats a warm winter with almost no snow. Appears we're at least gonna nickel and dime our way to 20 inches for the winter which isn't terrible. Still hoping we get lucky with a bigger storm late month though. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty much everything is showing 1 to 2 right now, except for the slightly more bullish NAM that shows a few inches. Still enough time for a north bump, but right now 1 to 3 looks like a good forecast. 

Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night before the mixing. This is the winter of numerous light snowfalls. Wish we could get a bigger snowstorm, but at least this beats a warm winter with almost no snow. Appears we're at least gonna nickel and dime our way to 20 inches for the winter which isn't terrible. Still hoping we get lucky with a bigger storm late month though. 

I think 3-4 is the best case still southern parts of our area.  The next storm is just way too amped up that even inland areas may be ZR or sleet mostly, that setup is good as far as high placement but you need a weak wave not a jacked up system.

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There were dozens of GFS ensemble runs last week that showed a range of mean 10-day snowfall totals for NYC... something like 6-15". As was pointed out multiple times, the 10-day total included a parade of mostly minor events. Some areas are running a little ahead of the multi-day ensemble consensus and other areas a little behind. What's missing is the 6" snowstorm as the cherry on top.

Agreed it just throws me off as I saw a post saying what happened to what the ensembles were showing with the large snowfall amounts. Really it's not far off so it wasn't a failure.

[rgwp96]

Really can’t take anything more than 3 days out seriously no matter what the pattern looks like, some of you will never learn lol

[eduggs]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.

I don't know how you can say that considering the sea of WSWs posted just south of our area. Even a weak shortwave... just a minor kink in the longwave flow... could have shifted the Tuesday event far enough north for a moderate snowstorm. My bar for "high-end" is relatively low. I'm talking 6" of non-mixing snow. Not a blockbuster. You are talking with the clarity of hindsight. We cannot definitively see threat magnitudes more than a week in advance. We can only really talk about likelihoods.  Yes a favorable PNA trof is helpful for large events. But it is not required.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs drier for tonight 

1-2 for NYC and less in NJ.

Same with ukie

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.

Agree

MJO is currently in 7 which promotes a SE ridge. It is projected to go into 8 with a falling AO and rising PNA.