Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[EastonSN+]

Any of the ensembles show more of a north movement than the ops?

[EastonSN+]

The euro for 6z looks good for one to three inches for Central Park. 

Likely another coating to 3 inched storm. Theme of the season. 

 

[EastonSN+]

This looks like it's for both storms this week. Central Jersey's turn.

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This looks like it's for both storms this week. Central Jersey's turn.

And I'll happily take it.  No work on Wednesday and hunting with my dog in snowcover is awesome.  

 

Really miss the big KUs of yesteryear.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, dseagull said:

And I'll happily take it.  No work on Wednesday and hunting with my dog in snowcover is awesome.  

 

Really miss the big KUs of yesteryear.  

Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. 

I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. 

There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.

[MJO812]

Nam might come in slightly more north.

[wishcast_hater]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam might come in slightly more north.

The broken clock might be coming in more north.  Wonderful.  What does the JMA show? 

[dseagull]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. 

I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. 

There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.

The 80s were tough.  I have a hard time reminding others in my family that despite the cold, we had very few big snows.  Having said that, we actually had true Alberta Clippers back then.  My nephew is currently doing a study on pattern changes that have led to the disappearance of frequent clippers. 

 

Some of those systems would give some surprises.  

[MJO812]

Not bad

[Superstorm]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

The 80s were tough.  I have a hard time reminding others in my family that despite the cold, we had very few big snows.  Having said that, we actually had true Alberta Clippers back then.  My nephew is currently doing a study on pattern changes that have led to the disappearance of frequent clippers. 

 

Some of those systems would give some surprises.  

You aint kidding.  Living in Middlesex County as a kid who loved snow was frustrating.

Although, April, '82 and February, '83 may always be in my top 10.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, dseagull said:

The 80s were tough.  I have a hard time reminding others in my family that despite the cold, we had very few big snows.  Having said that, we actually had true Alberta Clippers back then.  My nephew is currently doing a study on pattern changes that have led to the disappearance of frequent clippers. 

 

Some of those systems would give some surprises.  

It's going to be interesting to see how the next few years shake out. We thought the coastal hugger was extinct from 2000 through 2016. Suddenly one appeared March of 2017 and now we're getting a lot of coastal huggers so they became un extinct. 

We are getting clippers this year the problem is they've been moisture-starved. 

If your nephew hasn't already started your nephew should investigate 1955 through 1969 and see if we had clippers during that period. It could be cyclical as well.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not bad

You're in a great spot for this one!

[MJO812]

3k Nam ticked north 

[RU848789]

Zoomed 12Z vs 6Z NAM - nice! NYC at 2.5" (10:1; Kuchera for NYC is about 1.2) and only 30 miles from 4".

[SnoSki14]

2-3" looks probable especially if we see these last minute north ticks

[MJO812]

More snow with the system after tomorrow on the front end.

[eduggs]

A sharp shortwave over Lake Huron with associated intense SLP on Thursday is not what we had in mind last week when the wave of threats was coming into mid-range view. The feared scenario looks to be playing out. Hopefully southern areas can score a little Tue and northern areas Thurs. Unfortunately any snow looks to take place primarily at night and ends as the all-too-familiar ice to rain. Bummer.

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. 

I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. 

There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.

1977-78 really stands out in that time period.

And so does 1982-83, so you really want a moderate or strong el nino.

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

A sharp shortwave over Lake Huron with associated intense SLP on Thursday is not what we had in mind last week when the wave of threats was coming into mid-range view. The feared scenario looks to be playing out. Hopefully southern areas can score a little Tue and northern areas Thurs. Unfortunately any snow looks to take place primarily at night and ends as the all-too-familiar ice to rain. Bummer.

And people are already looking ahead at a supposedly great pattern after the 20th instead of just focusing on what's right in front of us (not necessarily here but in general)

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

A sharp shortwave over Lake Huron with associated intense SLP on Thursday is not what we had in mind last week when the wave of threats was coming into mid-range view. The feared scenario looks to be playing out. Hopefully southern areas can score a little Tue and northern areas Thurs. Unfortunately any snow looks to take place primarily at night and ends as the all-too-familiar ice to rain. Bummer.

You downplayed last storm and many places for 3-5. Take 1 storm at at a time.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's going to be interesting to see how the next few years shake out. We thought the coastal hugger was extinct from 2000 through 2016. Suddenly one appeared March of 2017 and now we're getting a lot of coastal huggers so they became un extinct. 

We are getting clippers this year the problem is they've been moisture-starved. 

If your nephew hasn't already started your nephew should investigate 1955 through 1969 and see if we had clippers during that period. It could be cyclical as well.

there were some very underrated winters back then that should be mentioned more often

1977-78 everyone knows about

1981-82 below 0 and two major snowstorms, one in April.

1982-83 had the big HECS of the decade

1986-87 multiple major snowstorms 

1987-88 snowy first half of winter

1991-92 multiple major snowstorms

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

And people are already looking ahead at a supposedly great pattern after the 20th instead of just focusing on what's right in front of us

What's crazy is Central Park might actually get close to the crazy high snow mean of 11.5 in on the ensembles that we we're all shocked about. 

It is already at 4.1 and will likely get a few more inches this week. If they reach 8 then the ensemble mean was not that off base.

[Krs4Lfe]

A few ticks north is possible but we’ll see if it’s just model noise. Confluence is pressing hard on this one, so mid-Atlantic will cash in. Ratios will be good up here but it looks pretty dry, confluence doesn’t seem to be moving much . (This is in regards to Tuesday night snow)

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

there were some very underrated winters back then that should be mentioned more often

1977-78 everyone knows about

1981-82 below 0 and two major snowstorms, one in April.

1982-83 had the big HECS of the decade

1986-87 multiple major snowstorms 

1987-88 snowy first half of winter

1991-92 multiple major snowstorms

 

Yeah if we do not just focus on snowfall average which was just 5 years and 30 years, then we see some positives just like we had a great month in 2022 and a great March in 2019. Also this year when looking back is going to look like another below average snowfall season, yeah we're going to have three below average temperature months as well as a lot of days of snow coverage. This winter will definitely be underrated.

[Krs4Lfe]

As far as Wednesday night goes, it looks like there will be some light pasty snow before it turns to rain. It’s too bad but we’ll take anything we can get after the past 2 years. Those were abysmal. Last snowstorm here was January 2022, still waiting 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You downplayed last storm and many places for 3-5. Take 1 storm at at a time.

Actually I don't believe I commented on last storm since I was away for it. I was focused on the one before and the one after. Locally we got about 2" and then ice early Sunday. It's a glacier. Looks nothing like the north country where even northern fringe areas got several inches of perfect fluffy powder. From reports it looks like LI and CT did well on Sunday.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

there were some very underrated winters back then that should be mentioned more often

1977-78 everyone knows about

1981-82 below 0 and two major snowstorms, one in April.

1982-83 had the big HECS of the decade

1986-87 multiple major snowstorms 

1987-88 snowy first half of winter

1991-92 multiple major snowstorms

 

I don't know if I'd call 92 major snowstorms. 1 heavy wet one that mostly melted the next day in the march sun while snow was falling. Then a 3 or 4" event 3 days later. Well below average winter with essentially less than 3" going into March. 90-91 was much better but still quite warm with very few days of snowcover

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah if we do not just focus on snowfall average which was just 5 years and 30 years, then we see some positives just like we had a great month in 2022 and a great March in 2019. Also this year when looking back is going to look like another below average snowfall season, yeah we're going to have three below average temperature months as well as a lot of days of snow coverage. This winter will definitely be underrated.

Funny thing is we looked back in disgust at the 80s and early 90s when we were in our snowy period between 02-03 and 17-18.  But now we would love to have some of those winters lol.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I don't know if I'd call 92 major snowstorms. 1 heavy wet one that mostly melted the next day in the march sun while snow was falling. Then a 3 or 4" event 3 days later. Well below average winter with essentially less than 3" going into March. 90-91 was much better but still quite warm with very few days of snowcover

Oops yes I confused the two, I meant 1990-91 with the unusual 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm!

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

A few ticks north is possible but we’ll see if it’s just model noise. Confluence is pressing hard on this one, so mid-Atlantic will cash in. Ratios will be good up here but it looks pretty dry, confluence doesn’t seem to be moving much . (This is in regards to Tuesday night snow)

i'll be happy to hold around .2" liquid without a major south correction at the last minute and squeeze out 2 to 3. The nam unfortunately likes to show snow way north in these situations and ends up wrong. Thankfully its not alone or I'd say to discount it