Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

Now snowmans19 cousin jetspens is spamming weenies.

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Now snowmans19 cousin jetspens is spamming weenies.

Who tf cares. Ignore it. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

It will be this week.

[Allsnow]

Vort is stronger and hgts higher on the icon 

should bump north 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Allsnow]

Same theme On the rgem should bump north 

[SnowGoose69]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t 

Its funny how it mishandled yesterday here so similarly to how it mishandled the southern snow event that gave ATL 3-4 inches a few weeks back.  In both cases it was insanely far north inside the final 12-18 hours and practically dry slotted areas where the most snow fell.  I know some of the SNE forum posters have said in the case of systems that are more dynamic with WAA it can go overboard sometimes and handles the more modest intensity storms better

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Same theme On the rgem should bump north 

Icon also

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Vort is stronger and hgts higher on the icon 

should bump north 

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon also

 

[Stormlover74]

And rgem was already good at 12z 

3" up to 78 and all the way east. Assuming 10:1. Kuchera better

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This next storm will likely get JFK to double digits.

What was JFK's total for last season, Don? I want to see how close we are to it.

12.8".

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And rgem was already good at 12z 

3" up to 78 and all the way east. Assuming 10:1. Kuchera better

Rgem also has 1-2 early Thursday morning 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem also has 1-2 early Thursday morning 

Thursday would be decent if the system was not so amped up.  Its one of those SSW approachers with the high to our north but its just way to zonked right now the coast to see much snow.

[mikem81]

About .35 precip on both NAM and RGEM. EURO/GFS are essentially .1 though. Well see...

[wdrag]

Not title change til half time tonight or 7AM Monday.  Probably read "At least some snow accumulation from 3 wintry events Noon Tuesday-9A Wed, 3P Wed-Noon Thu and 3P Sat-7A Mon 2/17".  

Want to review more guidance for next weekend. I dont prefer the warm inside look of the 12z/9 EPS but it's an option that needs consideration. 12z/9 NAEFS is a little colder with max axis qpf continuing over or south of our area. 

I think 2" qpf is probable by 12z/17. How much is snow ice rain?  We could get our monthly snowfall up within 2" of the entire Feb avg.

[Allsnow]

Gfs is north but not where the other models are currently 

[MJO812]

More snow Thursday on gfs

[forkyfork]

the rgem almost gives us 30 straight hours of frozen precip

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Now snowmans19 cousin jetspens is spamming weenies.

It's part of what makes life interesting.

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the rgem almost gives us 30 straight hours of frozen precip

For when during week or this weekend? 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

For when during week or this weekend? 

Tuesday - Thursday. 

[MJO812]

Gefs is a tick north of the 12z gefs

[allgame830]

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Tuesday - Thursday. 

So the Wednesday into Thursday event maybe doesn’t go to rain? I thought it seemed like it was 

[MJO812]

Ukie bumped totals up

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So the Wednesday into Thursday event maybe doesn’t go to rain? I thought it seemed like it was 

It will likely go to rain. RGEM only goes out to hour 84. At that point it's showing sleet, but it would likely change to rain shortly after that. 

[cleetussnow]

Besides Tuesday its a cut train - LPs going over Buffalo.  Snow quickly changing over rain 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Besides Tuesday its a cut train - LPs going over Buffalo.  Snow quickly changing over rain 

Not for the weekend 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Besides Tuesday its a cut train - LPs going over Buffalo.  Snow quickly changing over rain 

Nothing is cutting in this pattern .

[Krs4Lfe]

At least there’s no chance of mix or rain on Tuesday. Storm is mainly to the south but it would be all snow. Any snow on Thursday will be very brief before changeover. If 12z Euro is right, then east coat ridge after that, so let’s enjoy what we get Tuesday