Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

It’s amazing how consistently the holiday weeks have kicked off with a cutter 

It is some sort of cruel joke this year in an otherwise much better season. Great snow then oh wait holiday weekend? Let me make it icy! Then after holiday weekend, regular great snow resumes. 

[RU848789]

First snowfall map up from the NWS-Philly for Saturday pm.  Looks more like the Euro (the least snowy model) than the GFS (most snowy model), obviously, as per below.  Lots of rain to follow for everywhere south of 80 and maybe even up to 84, but as Walt has said, the cold air could hang on pretty long towards 84 and icing could become an issue.  

 

[Northof78]

another 2-4" for most of the Metro, Rt.78 and north especially on Saturday

[Allsnow]

Nam is a good thump for Saturday 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is a good thump for Saturday 

 

[MJO812]

Nams are mostly snow here

[Northof78]

Again, this could be the largest (or tied) for the largest snowstorm this year for some in the NYC metro and NE & C NJ

[MJO812]

Icon ticked up snow amounts

[SnowGoose69]

This is still an ugly setup to me but it won't take major changes from what the Euro shows to be a decent event initially down to the coast.

[forkyfork]

is tropical tidbits being slow for anyone else

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

is tropical tidbits being slow for anyone else

Yes. Use pivotal. 

[MJO812]

Rgem slightly more colder

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes. Use pivotal. 

thanks i hate it

[jm1220]

Hoping we can get a 2-4” initial thump on the N Shore. We usually have some time before onshore winds kill any of our chances. S Shore will be tougher, hard for me to see more than 1-2” there unless it comes in like a wall as it did on Sat. 

[Allsnow]

Icon has the thump and a big hit next week 

[hudsonvalley21]

[MJO812]

Gfs

[winterwx21]

This one not as fun because it would quickly get washed away by all the rain, but I would still gladly take a snowy Saturday afternoon with 1 to 3 inches. Hopefully we can get this little thump. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

52 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This one not as fun because it would quickly get washed away by all the rain, but I would still gladly take a snowy Saturday afternoon with 1 to 3 inches. Hopefully we can get this little thump. 

Right now as modeled that won't be the case in the areas North and West of NYC. Stays at or below freezing through Sunday. Icing may be a real issue with this especially 30 miles or more North of the city

[BoulderWX]

Saturday could be the 4th time I see snow this week and potentially the largest of all of them. Regardless of them all being small, that’s pretty rare around here. I’ll take it, especially if I can get rid of all the ice before then. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This one not as fun because it would quickly get washed away by all the rain, but I would still gladly take a snowy Saturday afternoon with 1 to 3 inches. Hopefully we can get this little thump. 

My fear is if the euros right it's several hours of light snow with temps around freezing during the afternoon. We need decent rates if we're going to get to 2 or 3

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Right now as modeled that won't be the case in the areas North and West of NYC. Stays at or below freezing through Sunday. Icing may be a real issue with this especially 30 miles or more North of the city

30 miles northwest of the city would be Rockland County. It’s going to be well above freezing on Sunday up here, solidly into the upper 30’s

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

My fear is if the euros right it's several hours of light snow with temps around freezing during the afternoon. We need decent rates if we're going to get to 2 or 3

Yeah it looks like the type of event in which the accumulation would be mostly on colder surfaces. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it looks like the type of event in which the accumulation would be mostly on colder surfaces. 

Euro might be too warm still

[MJO812]

Ukie also improved 

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

My fear is if the euros right it's several hours of light snow with temps around freezing during the afternoon. We need decent rates if we're going to get to 2 or 3

Next Friday (2/21) is when you actually really start to see sun angle be an issue for daytime events with marginal temperatures and light to moderate rates. With heavy rates and/or true arctic air in place with temps well below freezing it doesn’t matter obviously 

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

30 miles northwest of the city would be Rockland County. It’s going to be well above freezing on Sunday up here, solidly into the upper 30’s

yeah you will really need to be 60-90 miles north and west for any icing

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Next Friday (2/21) is when you actually really start to see sun angle be an issue for daytime events with marginal temperatures and light to moderate rates. With heavy rates and/or true arctic air in place with temps well below freezing it doesn’t matter obviously 

Yes April 2003 being a case in point about heavy rates overcoming the lateness of the season.

Lesser storms would barely accumulate during the day late in the season.

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Next Friday (2/21) is when you actually really start to see sun angle be an issue for daytime events with marginal temperatures and light to moderate rates. With heavy rates and/or true arctic air in place with temps well below freezing it doesn’t matter obviously 

Seriously 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah you will really need to be 60-90 miles north and west for any icing

 

Things have changed since this morning. Projected highs have gone up three degrees since then from 31 to 34. I'll take it you can keep any ice storms, no use for it.