Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m still suspicious of snow happening in that setup near the coast.  Winds from the south there would make that really difficult 

Alot of cold air in front. Not impossible. 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs with more snow on Saturday

Probably an inch or two front end snows. 

I see big potential for the 20th. All major models show something brewing. 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of cold air in front. Not impossible. 

Not impossible, but SnowGoose certainly has a good point. And a couple days ago there were models showing us getting a couple inch front end with tomorrow night's storm, but now it appears that won't happen. Too early to tell if we're gonna pull off a little front end accumulation with the weekend storm. 

Like SnoSki said, mid to late next week is the next really interesting potential. Hopefully we can finally get a more significant snowstorm, but a very long way to go on that one. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Not impossible, but SnowGoose certainly has a good point. And a couple days ago there were models showing us getting a couple inch front end with tomorrow night's storm, but now it appears that won't happen. Too early to tell if we're gonna pull off a little front end accumulation with the weekend storm. 

Like SnoSki said, mid to late next week is the next really interesting potential. Hopefully we can finally get a more significant snowstorm, but a very long way to go on that one. 

Yes let's hope it doesn't get suppressed, next week is go time.

[Northof78]

GFS for Saturday looks like a solid 2-4" front running over running for entire area....all snow QPF in the 0.25 - 0.4 range. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro wants no part of it unless you're well north and west. We shall see

[the_other_guy]

I was surprised I had to shovel this morning in Westchester. Nice little snow pack on the ground.

 

This is turn ing out to be a pretty good winter for 287 folks

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I was surprised I had to shovel this morning in Westchester. Nice little snow pack on the ground.

 

This is turn ing out to be a pretty good winter for 287 folks

The band got further north than modeled .

[Stormlover74]

Nam is an inch or two Saturday afternoon

[MJO812]

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[Blizzwalker]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

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One Icon run, but even for NW and up into Catskills, where is the 1.5 inches Qpf ?

5-7 inches snow wouldn't account for that.

Forecast has all snow in Catskills,so did all this predicted qpf decline ?  Or is it coming after this map's duration ?  

[Stormlover74]

Gfs still looks good though it did tick north slightly. A general 2 to 4

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

One Icon run, but even for NW and up into Catskills, where is the 1.5 inches Qpf ?

5-7 inches snow wouldn't account for that.

Forecast has all snow in Catskills,so did all this predicted qpf decline ?  Or is it coming after this map's duration ?  

Before the cutter

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

Am not doing anything for 19th-22nd until 6P today at the earliest... reasoning: I dont want to dump a thread on the subforum that ends up less than 1" CP.  I see at least 2"+ for CP next week, but a little concerned about inside runner, since the strength of the short waves is in the northern branch (Great Lakes) which means we need redevelopers off DE and not convinced we can dig these troughs far enough south. Just want another ensemble view.

 

[Northof78]

Saturday might be the largest storm of the season for some in parts of N/C NJ and NYC Metro

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Am not doing anything for 19th-22nd until 6P today at the earliest... reasoning: I dont want to dump a thread on the subforum that ends up less than 1" CP.  I see at least 2"+ for CP next week, but a little concerned about inside runner, since the strength of the short waves is in the northern branch (Great Lakes) which means we need redevelopers off DE and not convinced we can dig these troughs far enough south. Just want another ensemble view.

 

suppression is also a concern for next week, Walt

[Stormlover74]

Something to keep an eye on. The 3knam and hrrr both have a few hours of light snow or mixed precip tonight. Could get slick out there especially north and west

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Saturday might be the largest storm of the season for some in parts of N/C NJ and NYC Metro

Next week

[Yanksfan]

I don’t care how ominous the 500mb maps look. We need the PAC jet to relax some or our great potential next week will be flushed down the toilet like all of the others. That damn anomaly has been wreaking havoc on us for several years now.

 

[Northof78]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next week

This week

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

I don’t care how ominous the 500mb maps look. We need the PAC jet to relax some or our great potential next week will be flushed down the toilet like all of the others. That damn anomaly has been wreaking havoc on us for several years now.

 

Bluewave!

[BoulderWX]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Something to keep an eye on. The 3knam and hrrr both have a few hours of light snow or mixed precip tonight. Could get slick out there especially north and west

Saw that, up my way, I’m seeing up to an inch would be as much as last night. Snowpack is frozen solid despite there only being a couple inches on the ground. 

[Picard]

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Something to keep an eye on. The 3knam and hrrr both have a few hours of light snow or mixed precip tonight. Could get slick out there especially north and west

WWA is up for Morris, Sussex, and Warren for tonight into tomorrow morning.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Am not doing anything for 19th-22nd until 6P today at the earliest... reasoning: I dont want to dump a thread on the subforum that ends up less than 1" CP.  I see at least 2"+ for CP next week, but a little concerned about inside runner, since the strength of the short waves is in the northern branch (Great Lakes) which means we need redevelopers off DE and not convinced we can dig these troughs far enough south. Just want another ensemble view.

 

I wouldn't create a thread for mid- late next weeks potential until the flakes stop falling on Saturday....Plenty of time to start discussing  it at that time - if it is still even a storm threat at that time.............

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I wouldn't create a thread for mid- late next weeks potential until the flakes stop falling on Saturday....Plenty of time to start discussing  it at that time - if it is still even a storm threat at that time.............

Let's do it on Sunday when it's 55 degrees and raining lol, something to look forward to.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's do it on Sunday when it's 55 degrees and raining lol, something to look forward to.

yes - I was amazed yesterday when even some well know METS once again got suckered into believing the GFS 9 days out and using it  in their discussions when they know it has led them down the same wrong road that far out several times this winter.....

[hudsonvalley21]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes - I was amazed yesterday when even some well know METS once again got suckered into believing the GFS 9 days out and using it  in their discussions when they know it has led them down the same wrong road that far out several times this winter.....

And now it’s 8 days out. It’s seldom this far out that it verifies. Once in a while a dog gets its bone. The million dollar question is when. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And now it’s 8 days out. It’s seldom this far out that it verifies. Once in a while a dog gets its bone. The million dollar question is when. 

 

 

we have to get within 5 days for anything to be considered meaningful

and within 48 hours to pin down details

 

[Tatamy]

Steady light snow here.  33/30