Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We saw nothing up here; the mets on tv said a strong NW wind acted like a blow dryer. That's probably why you don't recall it, because it was a nothingburger here. I only remember because it was my first year teaching and I got a call the night before canceling school down in Jackson, where I was teaching ( awful hour long commute at 6 am, but jobs were scarce ). I waited for the big storm and it never came.

an all day virga storm, what a disappointing day that was

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is quite amazing, I mentioned that storm to a friend around the time of my post, he sent me this link off youutube.  The first weather segment is from the day before but you can scroll through and watch Joe Cioffi get progressively more nervous and eventually just mad about the forecast which appears its going to bust.  Who'd have known a broadcast from that day would be on youtube.

 

 

I used to listen to him a lot back then.  He was also on Ch 11 WPIX sometimes.  Did he have a meltdown over December 1989 too? They were still forecasting 6-8 for that one even when it quickly changed to rain and started to thunder lol.

[nycsnow]

Latest hrr worse, it’s completely on its own 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Latest hrr worse, it’s completely on its own 

Yeah it has no snow into JFK til 0230z, that seems nearly impossible based on latest radar and movement.

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is quite amazing, I mentioned that storm to a friend around the time of my post, he sent me this link off youutube.  The first weather segment is from the day before but you can scroll through and watch Joe Cioffi get progressively more nervous and eventually just mad about the forecast which appears its going to bust.  Who'd have known a broadcast from that day would be on youtube.

 

 

Lol poor Joe 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol poor Joe 

He was one of the best.  I used to listen to him and Craig Allan quite often.

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Early on, the HRRR seems to be faring poorly in and around the Washington, DC area. It remains to be seen how this will translate farther north.

Nevertheless, I'm still comfortable with the idea of a 1"-3" snowfall in and near New York City with perhaps 2"-4" on the south shore of Long Island.

@winterwarlock

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro now has .20 at JFK

[mikem81]

Radar returns over the area already but we’ll see…

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro now has .20 at JFK

Is that less or more 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Is that less or more 

Its actually .23, the 12Z run had .19, I loaded incorrect data initially

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Is that less or more 

Identical if true. 12Z had .2

 

[jm1220]

Can we keep it on topic? There’s a banter thread for other things. 

Hoping for a positive bust, outside chance at 3-4” if that northern fronto band develops with Atlantic inflow. 

[ag3]

27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it has no snow into JFK til 0230z, that seems nearly impossible based on latest radar and movement.

Snow is almost to Sandy Hook. Hrrr is clueless.

[ag3]

There’s a nowcasting and observation thread:

 

 

[BxEngine]

if your previous posts about non weather are disappearing, maybe take a few min break. Go find some snow or something.

[ag3]

Just now, BxEngine said:

if your previous posts about non weather are disappearing, maybe take a few min break. Go find some snow or something.

Let’s lock this thread and use the observation thread?

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can we keep it on topic? There’s a banter thread for other things. 

Hoping for a positive bust, outside chance at 3-4” if that northern fronto band develops with Atlantic inflow. 

My apologies JM, but there really isn't much to talk about snow wise yet. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

if your previous posts about non weather are disappearing, maybe take a few min break. Go find some snow or something.

No offense taken.

[allgame830]

18 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Let’s lock this thread and use the observation thread?

Not gonna lock this thread because it’s for the whole week 

[Stormlover74]

Lol

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol

Yep. Those HRRR runs that went way south and gave us nothing were off, but they were also a sign that the very bullish NAM runs were overdone. Looks like a compromise. I'm now thinking our area is just gonna get just around an inch. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol poor Joe 

Out at lunch at school it hadn't started yet, and I said I hope it's not missing us.  My friend, with no evidence,  said 'Nah, we're gonna get crushed' and I wanted to believe it.   We got nothing.  Back in those pre-internet days I think it was days later that I heard one of the other News 12 rub salt in the wound, saying that Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got a foot.  So close.  Back then we had very vague memories of '78, and awesome memories of '83, which came on like a wall at 12:45 PM.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. Those HRRR runs that went way south and gave us nothing were off, but they were also a sign that the very bullish NAM runs were overdone. Looks like a compromise. I'm now thinking our area is just gonna get just around an inch. 

It looks we'll snow for 3 or 4 hours out here but won't add up to much.  Unless a heavier band forms

[Stormlover74]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

Out at lunch at school it hadn't started yet, and I said I hope it's not missing us.  My friend, with no evidence,  said 'Nah, we're gonna get crushed' and I wanted to believe it.   We got nothing.  Back in those pre-internet days I think it was days later that I heard one of the other News 12 rub salt in the wound, saying that Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got a foot.  So close.  Back then we had very vague memories of '78, and awesome memories of '83, which came on like a wall at 12:45 PM.

I remember before leaving for school I heard on the radio the snow had made it to asbury park so I assumed it would be up here within an hour. Every hour that passed my stomach just sank. I think by noon the sun was poking out and I knew it was over

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Gfs with more snow on Saturday

[jm1220]

GGEM has a half decent front-end snow on Sat as well especially I-78 on north. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GGEM has a half decent front-end snow on Sat as well especially I-78 on north. 

Got colder

[SnowGoose69]

I’m still suspicious of snow happening in that setup near the coast.  Winds from the south there would make that really difficult