Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2” seems like a good bet most of LI. Everything gets washed away Thursday 

Yeah our next hope for any snow after tonight is maybe around the 16-20th when that storm signal keeps popping up ?? Possibly 

[winterwx21]

HRRR continues to look awful ... 16z run doesn't even get a half inch up to our area. Obviously HRRR is an outlier though and I wouldn't put much stock in it. I agree with SnowGoose though that we shouldn't put much stock in the terrible NAM model too. Probably overdone. Most other models (including 12z Euro just out) get close to 2 inches up to our area, so that isn't too bad. 2 inches still looks most likely for our area, so 1 to 3 continues to be a good call. 

[Nibor]

Euro has a what looks like a banding feature on the northern edge. 

[weatherpruf]

Odd to sit here listening to the news about all the dire winter weather expected in large parts of the country; S Jersey was mentioned....VA with a SEM.

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I highly doubt that. Thursday is not moisture laden 

If we have dewpoints in the 40s that will melt most of the snow. High dewpoints air=snow killer. But tonight we cheer, 1-3” will be nice. 

[donsutherland1]

The HREF remains relatively unchanged for SE Pennsylvania to NYC/Long Island. There's actually some improvement for the South Shore of Long Island.

2/11 0z:

2/11 12:

[wishcast_hater]

NYC - Expect nothing, this way if it does snow your'e pleasantly surprised.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

NYC - Expect nothing, this way if it does snow your'e pleasantly surprised.

Nws has 2-4 for south shore ofNYC and 3-5 for South shore of LI

[mikem81]

15z SREF increased once again 

[winterwarlock]

hrrr keeps cutting back with each run

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

hrrr keeps cutting back with each run

17z HRRR run gave us only a dusting, lol. I assume it's out to lunch and will start waking up the next few runs, but you never know for sure. It could be right about our area getting almost nothing just as a surprise 4 or 5 inches could happen, but most likely a middle ground will happen. I like 2 inches for my area. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

17z HRRR run gave us only a dusting, lol. I assume it's out to lunch and will start waking up the next few runs, but you never know for sure. It could be right about our area getting almost nothing just as a surprise 4 or 5 inches could happen, but most likely a middle ground will happen. I like 2 inches for my area. 

Its been south all winter it seems on many storms, not just the ones that impact the NE either.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Looks like that northern part in central PA dries up long before it crosses into the "upper" half of Jersey?

[mikem81]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

17z HRRR run gave us only a dusting, lol. I assume it's out to lunch and will start waking up the next few runs, but you never know for sure. It could be right about our area getting almost nothing just as a surprise 4 or 5 inches could happen, but most likely a middle ground will happen. I like 2 inches for my area. 

At this point can’t you just compare to the current radar ??

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

At this point can’t you just compare to the current radar ??

If you look back at the 12Z runs as of 19Z the 3km NAM/Euro/HRRR seem to be the closest, both are a bit too slow down in SE MD advancing the snow but not by much.  The high res GFS is way too far N in W PA and the RGEM is too far south in W PA.  The difference is the HRRR just does not advance the snow from the coast up as far N overnight as those other 2 models do

[lee59]

NWS has increased my area from 1-3 to 2-4 and WWA for Long Island

[RU848789]

The HRRR has been pretty far off on the radar forecast vs. actual, especially for the 6Z run, which had low snowfall like 18Z does (12Z HRRR had much more snow to the NW), plus it's a significant outlier.  The other day the NAM was a significant outlier and only ended up being partly right, i.e., for areas SW of about Allentown to NB, where most got little snow and a lot of sleet and ZR, but it got the precip amount and type NE of that line completely wrong, especially for NENJ/NYC/LI and the part it got right was in its wheelhouse of thermals aloft, whereas the HRRR isn't known for having some great skill in coastal snowfall.  So, I'm ignoring it and obviously the NWS and others are too.  Let's hope they're all correct.  

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

hrrr keeps cutting back with each run

Busting already in western PA

[nycsnow]

18z hrrrrr continues to look awful. Should catch on next few runs hopefully 

[NJwx85]

Why are people looking at the HRRR at this range? It’s useful once it actually starts snowing to pick out banding features. I wouldn’t worry about it unless the NAM caves this next run.

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

18z hrrrrr continues to look awful. Should catch on next few runs hopefully 

Only need to look at the radar at this point. Will provide a better sense of what’s going on than hourly models that are trying to play catch up but either way the forecast is pretty straight forward for an inch or two around the metro

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If we have dewpoints in the 40s that will melt most of the snow. High dewpoints air=snow killer. But tonight we cheer, 1-3” will be nice. 

There's a fair amount of moisture in the current snow cover. (I melted 0.70" Sunday afternoon).  Add a couple inches tonight, and maybe a coating before a relatively light rainfall, it'll rot a little but probably survive.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why are people looking at the HRRR at this range? It’s useful once it actually starts snowing to pick out banding features. I wouldn’t worry about it unless the NAM caves this next run.

out of range models is a tradition here-If I had a nickle for everytime someone said "the 84 hr NAM looks good"  I'd be a millionaire.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nws has 2-4 for south shore ofNYC and 3-5 for South shore of LI

south shore is south shore, they have a different forecast for Coney Island vs Long Beach vs Jones Beach vs Fire Island?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

There's a fair amount of moisture in the current snow cover. (I melted 0.70" Sunday afternoon).  Add a couple inches tonight, and maybe a coating before a relatively light rainfall, it'll rot a little but probably survive.

the weekend rainfall is more troublesome, Ed.

[nycsnow]

Nam continues to look good 

[nycsnow]

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[nycsnow]

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