Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

North of 80 might see flurries

The northern edge is tough with the dry air-Upton going 1-2 here but could bust

[mikem81]

Air doesn’t seem too dry. Dp is 21 here is middle of Nassau county. Not sure what dew points are north of here 

[nycsnow]

[mikem81]

12Z ICON north of 6Z

[nycsnow]

Icon improved 

Image

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem north too

[Stormlover74]

[dseagull]

Should look a lot more wintry tomorrow! 

[nycsnow]

Rgem snows for a while it just sticks around Long Island and nyc area 

[Krs4Lfe]

So I assume that there’s no chance of snow Wednesday night before all the rain on Thursday ?

[SnowGoose69]

Its hard to puck a ton of stock in the NAM given how bad for example its 12Z run from yesterday is currently verifying at hour 27.  It had snow into SW PA and basically no snow in coastal VA.

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

So I assume that there’s no chance of snow Wednesday night before all the rain on Thursday ?

Only for the interior. Otherwise it's straight to rain

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only for the interior. Otherwise it's straight to rain

so the saturday to sunday slopfest will have more snow than the wednesday to thursday slopfest? I don't see either giving us more than 1 inch before melting in a rainy onslaught

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

so the saturday to sunday slopfest will have more snow than the wednesday to thursday slopfest? I don't see either giving us more than 1 inch before melting in a rainy onslaught

 

Saturday could easily be nothing, I think our best shot there is keep with the progressive tendency of the winter and have that first system be flat and quick so we force the baroclinic zone and trof more east and the follow up wave could be snow.  Its going to take alot of work but at this range its possible

[mikem81]

GFS increased precip for tonigt. about .2 NYC .25 JFK

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so the saturday to sunday slopfest will have more snow than the wednesday to thursday slopfest? I don't see either giving us more than 1 inch before melting in a rainy onslaught

 

Icon gives us some front end snow Saturday before heavy rain

[weatherpruf]

43 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Should look a lot more wintry tomorrow! 

Know any areas I can catch some winter white perch?

[dseagull]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Know any areas I can catch some winter white perch?

Best spots down my way for true winter perch and not the spring breeder runs are along the mullica river and bass river.  Takes some poking around.  Grass shrimp for the win.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Best spots down my way for true winter perch and not the spring breeder runs are along the mullica river and bass river.  Takes some poking around.  Grass shrimp for the win.

I use nightcrawlers. Even use em for porgies in the ocean. Much cheaper than bloods or sands. Used to use them for winter flounder too, when they used to be plentiful. Catch a lot of perch with them up in ME too. But ya gotta find the fish to catch em. And you have to have all the baits ready. Don't wanna be the only guy not catching anything because you have the wrong bait or lure. Stripers too, will take nightcrawlers. Not much they won't eat....

[Northof78]

GFS looks good for another 1-3"/2-4" before a changeover on the weekend. 

[forkyfork]

this setup reminds me of super bowl 2021 and i think somewhere in the metro gets a surprise fringe band with 4-6"

[forkyfork]

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this setup reminds me of super bowl 2021 and i think somewhere in the metro gets a surprise fringe band with 4-6"

Saturday?

[forkyfork]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday?

tonight

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

tonight

Oh sorry didn't see the map 

[psv88]

2” seems like a good bet most of LI. Everything gets washed away Thursday 

[ForestHillWx]

29/12 here; got some work to do in order to see some flakes. 

[allgame830]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2” seems like a good bet most of LI. Everything gets washed away Thursday 

I highly doubt that. Thursday is not moisture laden 

[allgame830]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

That is some nice 700 fronto right there!

[wdrag]

OBS thread for Wed Noon-8A Thu wont issue (if needed) until late Wed morning, again if needed.  Will rearview overnight.

No extension of the current thread planned at this time,  but monitoring if the weekend system trends sewd 100 miles. For now buying into the GFS/GGEM 12z/11 cycle without as yet a review of the 12z/11 EC.