Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Happy the South and Southwest part of the forum are going to make up for the last event on this one good luck everyone.

got 3.5 from the last event and expecting 2 from this one, not a bad week.  This storm will get me to double digits and closer to last season's total (13 inches)

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

got 3.5 from the last event and expecting 2 from this one, not a bad week.  This storm will get me to double digits and closer to last season's total (13 inches)

I got four on the last one but only expecting a half inch at best on this one. All good though. I am happy when everybody on the board get snow.

[weatherpruf]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Happy the South and Southwest part of the forum are going to make up for the last event on this one good luck everyone.

Some of us are getting shafted for both events. Not a winter for my neck of the woods. I don't expect to see much of anything the next couple days, but hope springs eternal. My sump pump is working, so all is well. Anyway, daughter is driving from Somerset to Woodbridge during the commute, so I will hope it is not bad. She's new at this, but one has to be able to drive in marginal weather around here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thank you for posting a map that includes us northern folk. Even though we interbreed we still have feelings regarding snow. 
 
I still don't get why we need so many maps including all of Delaware and Maryland. I think I can safely argue they are not part of our forum. 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr ticked north but still an inch or less for most

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Thank you for posting a map that includes us northern folk. Even though we interbreed we still have feelings regarding snow. 
 
I still don't get why we need so many maps including all of Delaware and Maryland. I think I can safely argue they are not part of our forum. 

In this Storm makes no sense however I do like looking in that direction for storms that are going to change over for us as more snow for them would mean more snow for us LOL.

[TJW014]

Final call is 3-4" here. Might have some issues with anything sticking initially since I'm right along the water. Truck is loaded with firewood. 4 or 5 friends coming along to the beach for BBQ and drinks. Gonna be a fun night. 

[RU848789]

The risk of a major bust low just went down as the HRRR model, which was way less snowy than the other models, finally moved significantly further north...it's still on the low side of the models, but it's no longer a crazy outlier

[nycsnow]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr ticked north but still an inch or less for most

Prob a few more runs til hrr is in its prime range no?

[nycsnow]

Nam super consistent 

Image

 

[nycsnow]

Image

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Image

 

It's slightly more north 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Prob a few more runs til hrr is in its prime range no?

Maybe? I would still think it would show a more robust snow shield down south where it's still fairly paltry

[ag3]

Nam with another bump north.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Nam with another bump north.

2-4

[nycsnow]

Just now, ag3 said:

Nam with another bump north.

Depending on 12z Upton mentioned upping amounts a bit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see advisory 2-4 for nyc Long Island 

[MJO812]

3k north

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Less snow amounts than 6z but still 1-3.

How can it be north with less snow?

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

How can it be north with less snow?

Based off pivotal maps. Maybe someone else has other maps.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

How can it be north with less snow?

It shaved off a few hundredths

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How can it be north with less snow?

3 inches with slightly more for southern shore of NYC on weatherbell map.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Depending on 12z Upton mentioned upping amounts a bit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see advisory 2-4 for nyc Long Island 

Problem is nam is on an island. Which is never good outside of events where it sniffs out a warm nose. When its the furthest north its almost always wrong. We have consensus of 1 to 2 unless we get some higher ratios inside banding

[Stormlover74]

Maybe Suffolk county since the precip seems to be favoring areas further east as you go north

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Problem is nam is on an island. Which is never good outside of events where it sniffs out a warm nose. When its the furthest north its almost always wrong. We have consensus of 1 to 2 unless we get some higher ratios inside banding

I agree. Better chance of 2 or even slightly more near southern part of NYC and LI.

[Northof78]

Continues to be a fairly easy 2"-4" storm to forecast through time

[ag3]

South of LIE: 2”-4”

North of LIE: 1”-2”

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

Continues to be a fairly easy 2"-4" storm to forecast through time

North of 80 might see flurries

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

North of 80 might see flurries

Depends on where, Rt. 80 in Bergen 2"-3", Rt. 80 in Sussex 1" or so 

[RU848789]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How can it be north with less snow?

Heavier snowfall moved significantly NW up through 95 (SW of about NB) and was the same or slightly less along and NW of 95 for NENJ/NYC.  The 1" line actually bumped north a little bit, but that's likely noise.  Note though that the NAM is warmer than some models near the NJ coast (33-34F) so the Kuchera ratios are <1 there .  

[Dark Star]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Problem is nam is on an island. Which is never good outside of events where it sniffs out a warm nose. When its the furthest north its almost always wrong. We have consensus of 1 to 2 unless we get some higher ratios inside banding

Banding, sigh...