Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't know how you can say that considering the sea of WSWs posted just south of our area. Even a weak shortwave... just a minor kink in the longwave flow... could have shifted the Tuesday event far enough north for a moderate snowstorm. My bar for "high-end" is relatively low. I'm talking 6" of non-mixing snow. Not a blockbuster. You are talking with the clarity of hindsight. We cannot definitively see threat magnitudes more than a week in advance. We can only really talk about likelihoods.  Yes a favorable PNA trof is helpful for large events. But it is not required.

He is talking about a huge snowstorm not several inches.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

He is talking about a huge snowstorm not several inches.

VA might get a foot plus

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

VA might get a foot plus

According to which model ?

[RU848789]

12Z NAM looks great and then every other model backs off a bit relative to 6Z...

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z NAM looks great and then every other model backs off a bit relative to 6Z...

Be careful of the Nam

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

According to which model ?

Nam and gfs

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam and gfs

Nam is most likely too amped. I can see that area getting 4-8.

[Allsnow]

Euro bumped north a bit 

[Northof78]

2-4" for southern 2/3 of Metro with this one...

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

2-4" for southern 2/3 of Metro with this one...

define southern 2/3 boundaries please

[romba]

17 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

2-4" for southern 2/3 of Metro with this one...

 

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

define southern 2/3 boundaries please

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

That’s what’s you call a snow hole lol 

[eduggs]

This week has really gone to shit snow wise. Now that I've reconciled and accepted that, any positive trend or positive bust will feel glorious.

[EastonSN+]

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

1-5?  2-6?  1-6?  Is this not a first for these sorts of ranges?  1-6 is awfully close to 0-6.  I get that may be the best we can do, but, if I may be scientific for a moment, that looks weird man.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

1-5?  2-6?  1-6?  Is this not a first for these sorts of ranges?  1-6 is awfully close to 0-6.  I get that may be the best we can do, but, if I may be scientific for a moment, that looks weird man.

This is the first time I’m seeing these ranges from an NWS product. Maybe because they’re accounting for both storms?

[winterwarlock]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

its a bad move by them..its 2 seperate events that are totally different in many ways...should not confuse and conflate

[Krs4Lfe]

19 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This week has really gone to shit snow wise. Now that I've reconciled and accepted that, any positive trend or positive bust will feel glorious.

The key is to realizing that we shouldn't bet against the base state. We've had some light snowfalls this winter with everything big going north or south. If we haven't had a moderate-big one by now, I'd wager that it's going to be hard to get one later on. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

This is the first time I’m seeing these ranges from an NWS product. Maybe because they’re accounting for both storms?

Could be. There are 2 events in that timeframe

[nycsnow]

Long range hrr looks eh

[gravitylover]

So for Thursday, this is snow to start but will change to rain? How far north are we thinking the rain makes it? I have a significant road trip and am hoping to get an idea of what to expect for the drive home (from Chicago) Thursday overnight.

[mikem81]

18Z NAM looking pretty terrible

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The Euro operational has a storm which if these maps verified (which they almost certainly won't) would suggest a major snowstorm possibly KU the 19th-20th. 

WX/PT

[TJW014]

WWA issued here. 3-5". Would make for the biggest event here in 3 years if I get over 4". 

So long as NJ state offices don't close, the plan is for burgers and weenies over a campfire on the beach. 

If not, we'll be towing sleds behind the truck down some fire roads

 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

18Z NAM looking pretty terrible

Not sure if it looks worse or just slower. At your 33 precip just move into area 

[Allsnow]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Not sure if it looks worse or just slower. At your 33 precip just move into area 

Sleet line now into dca and Delmarva 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

00Z EPS also.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

18Z NAM looking pretty terrible

Definitely cut back north of 78 but for city and central nj looks about the same 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Sleet line now into dca and Delmarva 

Yea Nam should be ok… just slower 

[nycsnow]

Image