Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Stormlover74]

Wave 2 looks nice on the gfs. Would be interesting to get 2 events in 24 hours

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Wave 2 looks nice on the gfs. Would be interesting to get 2 events in 24 hours

I assume GFS holds from its earlier runs with just a coating here in the metro? Was pretty far south earlier 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wave 2 looks nice on the gfs. Would be interesting to get 2 events in 24 hours

Slightly weaker primary.

[Stormlover74]

Both waves

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I assume GFS holds from its earlier runs with just a coating here in the metro? Was pretty far south earlier 

1 to 2 unless you're north of the city 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wave 2 looks nice on the gfs. Would be interesting to get 2 events in 24 hours

Super late transfer with a low to Buffalo.  Probably 1-2" to sleet to rain and maybe 3-4" then an icing issue for the interior.

[allgame830]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

1 to 2 unless you're north of the city 

Wave 2 looks much better 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Super late transfer with a low to Buffalo.  Probably 1-2" to sleet to rain and maybe 3-4" then an icing issue for the interior.

That low has been deamping.

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Was hoping but doesn't look that way barring a last minute shift

We don't need a big shift to get into 3 to 6 though, just as a small shift can leave us with almost nothing. Still enough time.

At least right now if the models hold we'll get a couple inches Tuesday night. It was good to see the GFS shift north. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Was hoping but doesn't look that way barring a last minute shift

JFK and those of us on the south shore could get 4" with high ratios.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

On most of the operational models at 12Z and 00Z now we are starting to lose the great pattern they had up until today. The only model holding onto it is  the GGEM from which the storm right after Presidents Day might be suppressed way to our south if it even has a chance to develop.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2025021000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

[Irish]

How's the 12-18" looking for Tuesday into Wednesday?  

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Irish said:

How's the 12-18" looking for Tuesday into Wednesday?  

Great

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Great

Euro just came north slightly. Pretty much every model tonight is giving our area close to 2 inches, so 1 to 3 looks like a good call right now. Hopefully tomorrow we'll get a slight north bump so we can up it to 2 to 4. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Great

The only goals for this winter should be 1) get NYC their first 4 inch snowfall in years 2) get all local stations over 20 inches of snowfall

1 is more likely than 2, but it's possible we might get neither.

[The 4 Seasons]

Even for a 1-10 chance this is a little ridiculous. Nothing shows that. Maybe half those numbers. Expected is reasonable 

 

 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Even for a 1-10 chance this is a little ridiculous. Nothing shows that. Maybe half those numbers. Expected is reasonable 

 

 

Here's the NWS-Philly versions of those maps.  Agree that no model shows anything that high right now, but I always thought the 10% high end maps were about potential and those amounts would only require about a 75-100 mile north shift of the snow shield. This also appears to be only for wave 1, with wave 2 not having any precip until after 7 pm Weds.   This is reflected in their updated AFD.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow will fall Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with a
primary focus over the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and
southern New Jersey, where 4 to 6 inches of snow will fall.
From along the I-95 corridor to the Fall Line, 2 to 3 inches of
snow will fall, with 1 to 2 inches over the southern Poconos,
northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley. Will keep the Winter
Storm Watch in effect for the eastern shores of Maryland,
Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Behind the departure of the
secondary low, the first low that was over the Gulf Coast states
will depart off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday morning.

Another low organizes and develops over the Ark-LA-Tex area
Wednesday morning, tracks northeast during the day, and tracks
through western Pennsylvania and western New York Wednesday
night as another secondary low develops out ahead of it. That
low passes through New Jersey and will be off the Jersey Shore
late Wednesday night.

Precip Wednesday and Wednesday night will feature more in the
way of a mixed bag of wintry precip, first over Delmarva and
southern New Jersey Wednesday morning, then the wintry mix lifts
north through the day, and Wednesday night. Wintry mix changes
to plain rain from south to north Wednesday night. During this
time, snowfall will range from 1 to 2 inches over the southern
half of the forecast area, and from 2 to 3 inches over the
northern half.

[RU848789]

Also, watches are up for 4-6" for SNJ (but not for Philly/SEPA). 

[SnoSki14]

1-3" for most still looks probable. Also have to account for higher ratios which are likely. 2nd wave could see some frozen at the onset. 

Right now models are amped for next weekend's storm but the AO will be near its seasonal lows. MJO will also be in phase 8 too. 

Last time that happened the Mid-Atlantic got our snows so I wouldn't be surprised to see that storm gradually shift south. 

[the_other_guy]

Suppressed and then cutters

 

This forum is gonna blow!!

[MJO812]

I would take another 1-2 inch snowfall 

[allgame830]

20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Suppressed and then cutters

 

This forum is gonna blow!!

I’d suspect those cutters to continue to deamp 

[LoboLeader1]

As of right now this (as per NWS) upcoming weekend looking like a washout, temps progged to be the in low 40's. 

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I’d suspect those cutters to continue to deamp 

I think the one for next weekend will, not the one for Thursday. MJO still unfavorable and AO still falling. 

Not guaranteed of course 

[wdrag]

These are self explanatory from this mornings 4AM cycle.  I'll add the OBS thread for tomorrow at 8PM tonight.  

[the_other_guy]

Well, at this point, all we could do is take a day at a time and we have the next one up which looks like a suppressed system with a fringe

 

The nice thing about snow cover that’s laced with ice is that it’s harder to melt. That will be our friend this week.

[TJW014]

I think 3-4" is a good bet for me. Similar events like this so far this winter have underperformed slightly so I'll sit on the lower side of things. I do have a concern to see maybe some mixing right along the shore with that east wind developing but we'll see what happens

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Even for a 1-10 chance this is a little ridiculous. Nothing shows that. Maybe half those numbers. Expected is reasonable 

Would someone be able to explain in simple terms what warrants that odd 8-12 nosing up into southern Nassau?  Not that I would mind it, but its presence given the shading to its north, east, west, and south, I don't think I've ever seen anything like that before.

 

 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, at this point, all we could do is take a day at a time and we have the next one up which looks like a suppressed system with a fringe

 

The nice thing about snow cover that’s laced with ice is that it’s harder to melt. That will be our friend this week.

I still have a decent little pack from Saturday.  The snow is still hard.

[MJO812]

Nice refresher on the SREF