Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So the Wednesday into Thursday event maybe doesn’t go to rain? I thought it seemed like it was 

Might not inland, depends on how strong the system is, exactly where that high is positioned etc.  The 18Z RGEM high position not sure anyone inland goes over to rain really

[jm1220]

Wed into Thu if the NAM is right might be mostly a sleetfest just away from the coast, cold surface air looks pretty stout. If we have a decent snowpack, sleet is good to mix into it to give it staying power. It’ll freeze it into cement. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Besides Tuesday its a cut train - LPs going over Buffalo.  Snow quickly changing over rain 

Away from the coast it does not go quickly from snow to rain, especially with a secondary developing. 

[Allsnow]

Euro has. A prolonged period of frozen and more of a thump Wednesday night 

[rgwp96]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has. A prolonged period of frozen and more of a thump Wednesday night 

Did 18z euro tick north for Tuesday night Or stay the same 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Did 18z euro tick north for Tuesday night Or stay the same 

Mostly the same 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

No changes tonight to the headline. Not worth it.  Keep on going. 

[MJO812]

Sref a tick better

[mikem81]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref a tick better

They were already .4 of precious at 15z. What are they up to?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Wed into Thu if the NAM is right might be mostly a sleetfest just away from the coast, cold surface air looks pretty stout. If we have a decent snowpack, sleet is good to mix into it to give it staying power. It’ll freeze it into cement. 

Using the February 1994 analogy again a few days after the second storm, there was a storm progged to be a cutter going to Buffalo, but it trended southward in time plus the snowcover made the surface air colder and we ended up getting mostly ZR.

 

[Allsnow]

AI with one more bump south 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Sref a tick better

Are these things ever right? Serious question

[allgame830]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI with one more bump south 

Question: could we sacrifice Tuesday storm to keep going south which would help Wednesday/Thursday go further south or no? 

[Northof78]

0Z NAM nice 3-5" storm

[greenmtnwx]

NAM is south

[Stormlover74]

Not by much. It did shave off a touch in the metro area

[SHELEG]

That’s a big difference for NYC 

[Stormlover74]

A couple more inches Wednesday night

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM is south

Barely but still really good

[wishcast_hater]

NAM is south

Does it even matter? Useless model.


.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem south icon north. Most models are 1 to 3 for nyc now

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem south icon north. Most models are 1 to 3 for nyc now

That's a good call. 1-2.

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

AI with one more bump south 

Question: could we sacrifice Tuesday storm to keep going south which would help Wednesday/Thursday go further south or no? 

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Question: could we sacrifice Tuesday storm to keep going south which would help Wednesday/Thursday go further south or no? 

Theoretically that would be a good idea but I don’t think it would work that way. Seems like Tuesday night keeps most snow south of here but with the primary low cutting I doubt we get much snow, if any on Thursday.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Theoretically that would be a good idea but I don’t think it would work that way. Seems like Tuesday night keeps most snow south of here but with the primary low cutting I doubt we get much snow, if any on Thursday.

Seems like the more north models for Tuesday night also give us snow Wednesday night. The rgem and nam do. Euro doesn't 

[Krs4Lfe]

I think in general we’re probably running out of time for anything more than light snow Tuesday night. We would need to see a sizable shift in the models in order to see something more significant. Seems unlikely at the moment 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs much improved. Consensus of 1 to 3 now but less north of 80

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs much improved. Consensus of 1 to 3 now but less north of 80

I really thought this was gonna end up a 3-6" event for most of the sub.  

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I really thought this was gonna end up a 3-6" event for most of the sub.  

Was hoping but doesn't look that way barring a last minute shift