Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[snowman19]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:23 PM, NJwx85 said:

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

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Sun angle season starts on 2/21 

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:10 PM, MJO812 said:

These come north 

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Not this year....

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:42 PM, snowman19 said:

Sun angle season starts on 2/21 

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It begins March 1st really.

This pertains to urban areas.  It's when the sun heats the concrete and asphalt enough that big snow accumulations (10 inches and higher) become less likely.  We have had a 20 incher as late as the end of February but have not had a double digit snowfall in March in the urban areas.  Thus, sun angle.

 

 

[snowman19]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:49 PM, LibertyBell said:

It begins March 1st really.

This pertains to urban areas.  It's when the sun heats the concrete and asphalt enough that big snow accumulations (10 inches and higher) become less likely.  We have had a 20 incher as late as the end of February but have not had a double digit snowfall in March in the urban areas.  Thus, sun angle.

 

 

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Part of my comment was tongue in cheek, but on a serious note around 2/21 is when you actually start noticing sun angle and its warming effects during the day when you’re standing in it, in your car, in sun facing rooms in your house in the afternoon, etc.

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:10 PM, LibertyBell said:

Is JFK just under 10", Don? 9.7" after adding in that last 3.4"?

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JFK is 9.1".

[Allsnow]

 

[TJW014]

Winter Storm Watch issued for me. 4-6" with localized amounts of 6-8" per Mt Holly. We'll see what happens. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:04 PM, TJW014 said:

Winter Storm Watch issued for me. 4-6" with localized amounts of 6-8" per Mt Holly. We'll see what happens. 

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This could be your big storm of the season.

I think we just had ours and might not get another 3 incher this season, we'll see.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Nam Is going to be way north 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:58 PM, donsutherland1 said:

JFK is 9.1".

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This next storm will likely get JFK to double digits.

What was JFK's total for last season, Don? I want to see how close we are to it.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:56 PM, snowman19 said:

Part of my comment was tongue in cheek, but on a serious note around 2/21 is when you actually start noticing sun angle and its warming effects during the day when you’re standing in it, in your car, in sun facing rooms in your house in the afternoon, etc.

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I do love the longer days.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

WSWatch here 4-6, up to 8. Mt Holly went fairly aggressive imo for me, was thinking this would be predominantly south of me but we’ll see. 

I’m at 4.5 inches on the season, will this get me to double digits?

[mikem81]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:19 PM, Allsnow said:

Nam Is going to be way north 

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Started out that way... Not sure the result will be much different. 

[tristateweatherFB]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:19 PM, Allsnow said:

Nam Is going to be way north 

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Wrong 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:28 PM, mikem81 said:

Started out that way... Not sure the result will be much different. 

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2 embedded sw in the flow. The 2nd one is further north this run 

[mob1]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:28 PM, mikem81 said:

Started out that way... Not sure the result will be much different. 

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It's a good deal better 

[mob1]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:31 PM, Allsnow said:

2 embedded sw in the flow. The 2nd one is further north this run 

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[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:32 PM, mob1 said:

It's a good deal better 

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3 inch line past nyc at 06z Wednesday and still Snowing 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I just dunno about that NAM

 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:30 PM, tristateweatherFB said:

Wrong 

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Post less 

[mob1]

[snowman19]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:33 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

I just dunno about that NAM

 

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After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t 

[binbisso]

Nws snow map is very conservative. Less than an inch for nyc metro. However the 1 in 10 chance map is 6" for the city 

[SnoSki14]

SWFE style north bumps would do wonders with this. Also ratios should be better than normal. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:37 PM, snowman19 said:

After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t 

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You weren't saying that last week. 

[tristateweatherFB]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:34 PM, Allsnow said:

Post less 

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It didn’t come way north as you said. Just some more Qpf.   It’s the same.  
 

 

[Allsnow]

AI might be further south this run

 

thats not good 

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:41 PM, Allsnow said:

AI might be further south this run

 

thats not good 

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Erratic model

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 8:41 PM, Allsnow said:

AI might be further south this run

 

thats not good 

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We get most of our snow from the second sw embedded in the flow. That did trend north on the ai, so perhaps that will trend better in future runs