Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Franklin0529]

I think we'll have a better consensus later tonight when the energy reaches the West Coast 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Went south? 

Not much. Less on LI more in NNJ

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What is the average yearly snowfall for CPK? And what do they have thus far?

I am personally comparing 2019 onwards to the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999. That average was 21.90667.

A smidge under half way there.

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Is it though? This week we were slated for 30 inch of snow on a 240 gfs snowfall maps how’s that working out?

The ensemble mean for 360 hours was 11.5. Central Park could Easily get that.

One up run of the GFS should never be taken verbatim.

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Normal seasonal snowfall: 29.8"

Snowfall through February 9: 10.4" (Normal: 17.9")

Wow thanks. I was assuming around 24".

[Allsnow]

Euro going to bump south as the vort is weaker this run. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro going to bump south as the vort is weaker this run. 

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

[Allsnow]

Miss to my north then to my south 

awesome 

[ag3]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

Shit.

[Allsnow]

Euro setting up a second Rainer for the weekend 

 

Chicago getting crushed wasn’t on the bingo card for this week on the ensembles a few days ago 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

Not surprised 

[TJW014]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

last year in February? we got a 4 and a 6 at JFK and it was more in central NJ

That was northern Monmouth that cashed in. We got shafted just to the south of that killer band in a subsidence zone. I measured 12" at Sandy Hook and 3 inches in Asbury Park. 1.5" at home from that one. Exit 105 - Exit 63 on the GSP has been skunked year after year. Take a look a seasonal total map this year. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Shit.

Strong vort but more of a press.

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro setting up a second Rainer for the weekend 

 

Chicago getting crushed wasn’t on the bingo card for this week on the ensembles a few days ago 

It's less amped than 0z. Euro has been overamping storms all winter. It will deamp.

[Allsnow]

The vort was weaker metfan 

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Shit.

Thats my line.

[nycsnow]

Euro sucks but plenty of time 

[SnowGoose69]

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

[mikem81]

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

15Z SREF looks north again

[Allsnow]

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

One thing to watch on that is the HRRR as it comes into range on this, its usually been able to see those jet induced areas of snow, sort of picked it up on the event last time which was mostly well to our south

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Here is a little trivia;

 

When was the last time NYC had a snow storm with snow already on the ground?

 

It has been years I think

February 2021.  Also, possibly December 2024, but thats just on paper.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The vort was weaker metfan 

Not according to the other forum you know about. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

15Z SREF looks north again

It is

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Normal seasonal snowfall: 29.8"

Snowfall through February 9: 10.4" (Normal: 17.9")

Is JFK just under 10", Don? 9.7" after adding in that last 3.4"?

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

These come north 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

These come north 

we should still be good for 2-4 or 3-5

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

still looking for that elusive 4" snow storm in NYC

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not according to the other forum you know about. 

I don’t know about any other weather forums 

[NJwx85]

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

It’s already a concern