Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Franklin0529]

I think we'll have a better consensus later tonight when the energy reaches the West Coast 

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:55 PM, Allsnow said:

Went south? 

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Not much. Less on LI more in NNJ

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:50 PM, sussexcountyobs said:

What is the average yearly snowfall for CPK? And what do they have thus far?

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I am personally comparing 2019 onwards to the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999. That average was 21.90667.

A smidge under half way there.

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:35 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Is it though? This week we were slated for 30 inch of snow on a 240 gfs snowfall maps how’s that working out?

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The ensemble mean for 360 hours was 11.5. Central Park could Easily get that.

One up run of the GFS should never be taken verbatim.

[sussexcountyobs]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:57 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Normal seasonal snowfall: 29.8"

Snowfall through February 9: 10.4" (Normal: 17.9")

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Wow thanks. I was assuming around 24".

[Allsnow]

Euro going to bump south as the vort is weaker this run. 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:22 PM, Allsnow said:

Euro going to bump south as the vort is weaker this run. 

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Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

[Allsnow]

Miss to my north then to my south 

awesome 

[ag3]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:25 PM, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

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Shit.

[Allsnow]

Euro setting up a second Rainer for the weekend 

 

Chicago getting crushed wasn’t on the bingo card for this week on the ensembles a few days ago 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:25 PM, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:25 PM, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

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Not surprised 

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[TJW014]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:47 PM, LibertyBell said:

last year in February? we got a 4 and a 6 at JFK and it was more in central NJ

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That was northern Monmouth that cashed in. We got shafted just to the south of that killer band in a subsidence zone. I measured 12" at Sandy Hook and 3 inches in Asbury Park. 1.5" at home from that one. Exit 105 - Exit 63 on the GSP has been skunked year after year. Take a look a seasonal total map this year. 

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:31 PM, ag3 said:

Shit.

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Strong vort but more of a press.

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:34 PM, Allsnow said:

Euro setting up a second Rainer for the weekend 

 

Chicago getting crushed wasn’t on the bingo card for this week on the ensembles a few days ago 

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It's less amped than 0z. Euro has been overamping storms all winter. It will deamp.

[Allsnow]

The vort was weaker metfan 

[cleetussnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:31 PM, ag3 said:

Shit.

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Thats my line.

[nycsnow]

Euro sucks but plenty of time 

[SnowGoose69]

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

[mikem81]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.

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15Z SREF looks north again

[Allsnow]

 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:44 PM, Allsnow said:

 

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One thing to watch on that is the HRRR as it comes into range on this, its usually been able to see those jet induced areas of snow, sort of picked it up on the event last time which was mostly well to our south

[NorthShoreWx]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:54 PM, the_other_guy said:

Here is a little trivia;

 

When was the last time NYC had a snow storm with snow already on the ground?

 

It has been years I think

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February 2021.  Also, possibly December 2024, but thats just on paper.

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:43 PM, Allsnow said:

The vort was weaker metfan 

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Not according to the other forum you know about. 

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:44 PM, mikem81 said:

15Z SREF looks north again

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It is

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:57 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Normal seasonal snowfall: 29.8"

Snowfall through February 9: 10.4" (Normal: 17.9")

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Is JFK just under 10", Don? 9.7" after adding in that last 3.4"?

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:44 PM, Allsnow said:

 

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These come north 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:10 PM, MJO812 said:

These come north 

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we should still be good for 2-4 or 3-5

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:25 PM, Allsnow said:

Inch or less and nothing north of nyc 

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still looking for that elusive 4" snow storm in NYC

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Not according to the other forum you know about. 

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I don’t know about any other weather forums 

[NJwx85]

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

[psv88]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:23 PM, NJwx85 said:

Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.

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It’s already a concern