Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

back to back 3-5 inch events would be nice to see

Winters of yore.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Winters of yore.

to be fair, last February JFK had a 4 inch snowstorm followed by a 6 inch snowstorm a few days later

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This thread will continue as posted as I responded to complaints and incorporated multiple probable snow accumulators of some sort for NYC, Tue night(2-5), Wednesday evening (1" or less), and Saturday evening-possibly into Monday morning the 17th (large multi hazard event?).  This was done to limit threads for clicking back and forth.  This particular thread will probably be extended through the 16th or early 17th, in the late afternoon pre Super Bowl update, pending review of the 12z ensembles.  This is your week.  Have tried to keep this simple but you have to admit to being thrilled with snow action and an unusual train of wintry threats. 

 I'll separate out the OBS threads for each of the next 3 wintry events. 

Also Next Monday we'll add up the total melted qpf which has a very good chance to be 3" in at least a fairly large portion of our NYC sub forum, between the 6th-16th. Already as of this morning is widespread 0.5-1.2". 

The 11.5 inches that the ensemble mean was showing for Central Park before the last storm is in reach. Pretty good job by the ensembles if this pans out.

[Allsnow]

I don’t like how the AI has sunk south the last few runs. 
we need a good bump north at 12z to have a chance at something more then 1-3 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t like how the AI has sunk south the last few runs. 
we need a good bump north at 12z to have a chance at something more then 1-3 

1 run

[mikem81]

SREF mean for JFK went from .3 to .4 from 3Z to 9Z. Hopefully the better models will follow north

[mikem81]

Just now, mikem81 said:

SREF mean for JFK went from .3 to .4 from 3Z to 9Z. Hopefully the better models will follow north

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t like how the AI has sunk south the last few runs. 
we need a good bump north at 12z to have a chance at something more then 1-3 

Get a north trend when we don't want it and don't get one when we do 

Gotta love it 

[Allsnow]

Icon should bump north 

sw energy stronger and higher hgts on east coast 

[TJW014]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t like how the AI has sunk south the last few runs. 
we need a good bump north at 12z to have a chance at something more then 1-3 

These always bump north

[SnowGoose69]

The 06z UKIE and AI went back south a bit, the high res GFS seems to indicate the 12Z GFS won't move, not a surprise to me as this is a storm that the GFS probably would be south of everything else but I don't think anything over 1-4 is realistic right now and the 4s would be SI/JFK.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 06z UKIE and AI went back south a bit, the high res GFS seems to indicate the 12Z GFS won't move, not a surprise to me as this is a storm that the GFS probably would be south of everything else but I don't think anything over 1-4 is realistic right now and the 4s would be SI/JFK.

Agreed. We can’t afford a set back if we want more than 4 around the metro. 

[Allsnow]

Rgem bumped north 

[wdrag]

Keep looking...   posting.  

OBS thread for the first event will probably be posted Monday evening or at the latest Tuesday morning 7AM.

Just in case anyone wonders why the entire next weekend will probably be incorporated into this 3 event thread... the weekend starts on the last day of the currently written thread, and as snow.  Since it looks so complicated, I think it best to include the entire weekend (through 12z/Monday the 17th). This particular thread will probably shut down around at 00z/16 when all comments can shift over to the probable weekend OBS thread. 

Snow blowing now and probably not commenting again til 515P

 

Below what  I used for my FB hazard post, covering the 3 coming events.  I'll update these late his afternoon.  I forgot to highlight the state boundaries but you'll probably click and figure it out.  

[mikem81]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Rgem bumped north 

Yes both RGEM and Icon bumped slightly north. Maybe 25 miles or so. We’ll need a few more of those.. ideally we’d like to only need a 25 Mile north jog going into the event as these often end up slightly north of final modeling 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Yes both RGEM and Icon bumped slightly north. Maybe 25 miles or so. We’ll need a few more of those.. ideally we’d like to only need a 25 Mile north jog going into the event as these often end up slightly north of final modeling 

Rgem and euro are the best case scenario right now. 3 to 5 around the area. Everything else however is quite a bit less. Still think it's 1 to 3 type deal less north

[EastonSN+]

[SnowGoose69]

This sort of event often has a band of frontogenesis induced heavier snow up near the north fringe of the system.  Ratios could also be 12-15:1 with this, really need .20-.30 liquid to get this to be possibility of something more significant 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Rgem did well this past storm. So let’s ride it lol

[ILoveWinter]

Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Agreed. Active patterns are at least not boring as hell, and we’ve had snow events. If we arent gonna get a monster storm, ill take this over the alternatives. Its february. Rooting for warm and dry is weird.

Yup.  Active with cold air nearby.  Like I said a week ago, I like our odds at picking up at least a couple events.  

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ag3 is a conservative poster. Buckle up when he calls for something. 

I'm on the ag3 train. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Rjay said:

Yup.  Active with cold air nearby.  Like I said a week ago, I like our odds at picking up at least a couple events.  

100% this has been a very fun winter from a tracking perspective. 

I posted a couple times before that the extremely high snow mean on the ensembles of 11.5 before the last storm are in reach for Central Park, which is crazy to think about. Have three more opportunities at least to pick up that difference.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?

More just fast/progressive flow.  There is confluence stretched form NNE back to the Upper Midwest/Canada border which likely stops this from getting up to say BOS.  The north movement with this the last 2 days is a combo I think of the shortwave that you see crossing Quebec into NRN Maine and NB near 50 hours out being faster and out of the way and likely also the next system diving down into the Rockies/high plains possibly pumping the SE ridge a bit more downstream.

[brooklynwx99]

there absolutely is the potential for some fluff factor in the northern area of the precip shield... factor in a strong 250mb jet and 700 FGEN and it wouldn't be shocking to see an area of enhanced, higher ratio snow 

[Allsnow]

Hgts higher on the east coast so far for gfs 

[TJW014]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This sort of event often has a band of frontogenesis induced heavier snow up near the north fringe of the system.  Ratios could also be 12-15:1 with this, really need .20-.30 liquid to get this to be possibility of something more significant 

I'll bet $20 that the subsidence area sits right over me

[mob1]

GFS has nothing for us. 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hgts higher on the east coast so far for gfs 

Gfs might be a smidge worst…

 

would have loved to see a move north 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs might be a smidge worst…

 

would have loved to see a move north 

I don't think it's worse