Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Allsnow]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:16 PM, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models shift after tonight's storm leaves.

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When did this turn into a Midwest snow pattern? Haha

[winterwx21]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:15 PM, Allsnow said:

It will be wrong 

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This morning you said the pattern favors a north trend. Hopefully this RGEM run is a good sign. 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:23 PM, winterwx21 said:

This morning you said the pattern favors a north trend. Hopefully this RGEM run is a good sign. 

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The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:16 PM, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models shift after tonight's storm leaves.

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We'll get something from each of these next 2 storms, enjoy it, who knows when it'll snow again after next Tuesday.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:49 PM, LibertyBell said:

We'll get something from each of these next 2 storms, enjoy it, who knows when it'll snow again after next Tuesday.

 

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If I had to wager a guess, I’d say it’s last snow until next winter. Maybe Tuesday storm can push north a bit but I wouldn’t count on it. Thursday looks like a big Rainer. Next weekend to be determined.

[Allsnow]

18z euro bumped north 

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

[Allsnow]

  On 2/8/2025 at 11:31 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

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It helped that a stronger piece of energy came out of the sw 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/8/2025 at 11:31 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

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the best part is it's going to be all snow

 

[Franklin0529]

Euro is keying on that more potent 2nd wave instead of that weak 1st wave. 

[Allsnow]

EPS is stronger with the wave Tuesday night which pumps hgts along the east coast 

 

mean 2-3 

[RU848789]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:30 PM, Allsnow said:

The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

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It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

[Allsnow]

  On 2/9/2025 at 12:21 AM, RU848789 said:

It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

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No skating on Tommy’s pond this winter? 

[TJW014]

  On 2/9/2025 at 12:21 AM, RU848789 said:

It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

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[Allsnow]

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Man this winter is wild with the 1-3 events lmao 

[winterwx21]

  On 2/8/2025 at 10:30 PM, Allsnow said:

The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

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I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

[winterwx21]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:38 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Man this winter is wild with the 1-3 events lmao 

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I hope we get a bigger event at some point so we can end up at near average snowfall, but if that doesn't happen it at least appears we'll be able to nickel and dime our way to 20 inches. Below average but not terrible. 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:43 AM, winterwx21 said:

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

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something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

[Yanksfan]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:37 AM, Allsnow said:

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

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Snow map please.

[TJW014]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:37 AM, Allsnow said:

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

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Looks about a 30 mile shift to the north. NYC and LI see 0.3" qpf. About 0.5" qpf right over me

[wishcast_hater]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:49 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

What’s the chances of this coming further north?


.

[MJO812]

Nam is also north from 18z

[Franklin0529]

  On 2/9/2025 at 2:28 AM, wishcast_hater said:

What’s the chances of this coming further north?


.

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It's focusing more on the second wave. Euro came north a good bit so did the AI. Also I know it's the nam at range, but it's looks really juicy and like it would be North 

[Franklin0529]

  On 2/9/2025 at 2:38 AM, MJO812 said:

Nam is also north from 18z

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Ninja'd

[nycsnow]

Nam looks great 

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[nycsnow]

More to come

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[nycsnow]

rgem good

still snowing after this 

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[Allsnow]

Gfs further north 

[Irish]

It's coming back!!