Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[wdrag]

Best chance for a total of 6+" inland with NYC-LI-coasts?  Ensembles are added.  All graphics should self identify.

Ensemble snowfall is the more conservative positive snow depth change and prefer to minimize overhyping despite a decent looking pattern. It and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall does include some snow from this weekend, but the bulk is with in the Feb 11-15 period.  

One thing I dont like about the BOM is that it has averaged snowfall across all of LI instead of adjusted toward the ensembles.  The BOM may be right if two of these decent events are all snow for LI.  

Included also is the Blend of Models somewhat realistic expectation of a little freezing rain, probably better than the EPS. The WPC 6-7 outlooks are attached and finally the conservative WSSI-P which implies an I95 modest snowstorm (low probs moderate in this example for D6)

Generally cold high pressure should extend from the Canadian Rockies across southern Canada in this period with an average 150KT 200MB jet core persistently centered near Boston. That places the NYC subforum on the edge of the RRQ of the upper level jet,  rather close to the core, so that in my opinion, some southward suppression might occur in the surface pattern during this time frame or the NAEFS (multi ensemble inclusive of the CMCE-GEFS) might change as the models change over the next week. 

Ensemble guidance basically is producing 1+" of qpf for our area in this time frame. 

All yours!

 

 

713P/6

[wdrag]

To illustrate my concern about suppression due the NAEFS averaged jet core so close to our area... here is the NAEFS chance of 1" qpf in this 5 day period... notice the max axis is south of us and our prob for an inch in NYC is about 50-60%, according to this CMCE-GEFS blend from the 12z cycle. 

[Allsnow]

Euro Ai is a solid hit for wave 1

wave 2 ice to rain 

wave 3 big hit of snow for 2/15. 
 

AI is very erratic outside 5 days so take wave 2/3 fwiw 

[Franklin0529]

GFS way south NC/VA border 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

GFS way south NC/VA border 

Wave 2 might be better on this run

[NEG NAO]

Totally Suppresed on 0Z GFS

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wave 2 might be better on this run

You always say the next wave the next wave lol. 

[eduggs]

Back to back hits at 18z to possibly back to back misses at 0z. Ouch.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, eduggs said:

Back to back hits at 18z to possibly back to back misses at 0z. Ouch.

It’s possible. We’re seeing both extremes play out over the last two runs which is telling in and of itself. We have the envelope. 

[eduggs]

Back to back to back misses. Sunday could be biggest event of the week.

[BoulderWX]

Disaster of a run, but can’t put too much stock in the good or the bad right now. I didn’t expect to get 30” next week like 18z showed and I don’t expect to get an inch either. Somewhere in the middle lays the truth. 
 

Will check in at 12z tomorrow 

[NEG NAO]

Canadian not a total miss but lighter snow

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

You always say the next wave the next wave lol. 

Well that's what the models are showing. Want me to lie ?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Back to back to back misses. Sunday could be biggest event of the week.

I guess we should pack it in  6 days out.

[eduggs]

The trof in the SW is too sharp. Heights rise too much along the east coast. Pushes the boundary slightly too far northwest. CMC is similar.

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Canadian not a total miss but lighter snow

And then the same wave comes north 

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

The trof in the SW is too sharp. Heights rise too much along the east coast. Pushes the boundary slightly too far northwest. CMC is similar.

Models don't even know which wave to focus on.  This weekends wave might have an influence on Tuesdays wave.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I guess we should pack it in  6 days out.

Nobody listened to me a couple days ago when I said to "curb your enthusiasm" and I got stuck with 11 weenies

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Nobody listened to me a couple days ago when I said to "curb your enthusiasm" and I got stuck with 11 weenies

And no one will still lol

[eduggs]

The 18z GFS had almost a standing wave jet for 5 days. 0z is more of the typical wave progression with trofs and ridges.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And no one will still lol

true - BUT its still early and a very complicated set up with multiple storms playing off one another influencing the next one and so on........and questions regarding strength and position of the HP's very critical IMO - also the configuration of the jet stream during all of this

[eduggs]

I've really been enjoying the very highly anomalous (wet) 10-day QPF on the ensemble means paired with mostly below average 850mb temps. We don't see that often. I suspect we start moving away from that now and will have to hedge more towards climo with the big snow mostly in the high terrain of NE. Hope I'm wrong. And we still obviously have a great chance of a least a moderate snowstorm next week in addition to Sunday's potential plowable event.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

I've really been enjoying the very highly anomalous (wet) 10-day QPF on the ensemble means paired with mostly below average 850mb temps. We don't see that often. I suspect we start moving away from that now and will have to hedge more towards climo with the big snow mostly in the high terrain of NE. Hope I'm wrong. And we still obviously have a great chance of a least a moderate snowstorm next week in addition to Sunday's potential plowable event.

This is our snowiest month

[eduggs]

The GFS recovered a little at the end of the 3rd wave and the CMC had some snow. But 0z was still disappointing. We've steadily lost some of the big QPF #s with great moisture feed out of the Gulf. There is a small pin prick hole in the excitement balloon for next week.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS recovered a little at the end of the 3rd wave and the CMC had some snow. But 0z was still disappointing. We've steadily lost some of the big QPF #s with great moisture feed out of the Gulf. There is a small pin prick whole in the excitement balloon for next week.

Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS recovered a little at the end of the 3rd wave and the CMC had some snow. But 0z was still disappointing. We've steadily lost some of the big QPF #s with great moisture feed out of the Gulf. There is a small pin prick whole in the excitement balloon for next week.

It's only 1 run. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP

 

If anything they appear even more south overall than the Op run through 114

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP

It does and always does

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If anything they appear even more south overall than the Op run through 114

They have been following the op lately .

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They have been following the op lately .

Euro running soon for the tiebreaker......any predictions ?