February 11-12: Is it real?

[clskinsfan]

The GFS is a fucking weenie run. Any other take is ridiculous. A week of waves are coming. Maybe we win a bunch of them. Or maybe we dont. The next 2 weeks are going to be insane yall

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

And RVA!!

Don't get cocky lol it may move back north in 6 hours lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is a fucking weenie run. Any other take is ridiculous. A week of waves are coming. Maybe we win a bunch of them. Or maybe we dont. The next 2 weeks are going to be insane yall

Weenie run for some....

[DDweatherman]

The Ggem isn’t that impressive to me. It’s not south but it’s also dry. 

[Scraff]

Is “dropsonde” code word for “fuck your snow and get a life outside this forum”? Asking for a friend. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The Ggem isn’t that impressive

Shocking

[Solution Man]

CMC ingested shit side data

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The Ggem isn’t that impressive to me. It’s not south but it’s also dry. 

IMBY game. I’d rather this be south to maximize my odds of an all-snow event. 4” snow > 7” of snow that immediately gets rained on. YMMV

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Don't get cocky lol it may move back north in 6 hours lol

Hahahahaha-you're right-it was nice to get a little good news down here for now lovers lol. Lots of time for all

[ravensrule]

Just now, Solution Man said:

CMC ingested shit side data

@winter_warlockreally screwed the forum when he shitted himself. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, ravensrule said:

@winter_warlockreally screwed the forum when he shitted himself. 

 Lmaooooooo

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Next week it seems we have temp issues

We is a very local thing brother. Bottom line is we ALL have a chance to score over the next 2 weeks. And I think we all do.

[T. August]

Cliff jumping is silly but to see 0z so far as negative isn’t unjustified. Gfs is a miss south. CMC had good orientation but was absolutely torching. Whenever multiple ways of failing show up I definitely get nervous.

[TSSN+]

Happy hour to time of death in a run lol. 6z it’ll be back. Stupid models. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, T. August said:

Cliff jumping is silly but to see 0z so far as negative isn’t unjustified. Gfs is a miss south. CMC had good orientation but was absolutely torching. Whenever multiple ways of failing show up I definitely get nervous.

Seems like it's getting more complicated instead of simpler. These wave interactions might not be resolved until Sunday or Monday at this rate, lol

[Chris78]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Happy hour to time of death in a run lol. 6z it’ll be back. Stupid models. 

The amount of snow that it had in PA on the 18z compared to the 00z is comicle 

[hstorm]

I, for one, wouldn't be complaining about this.

[Chris78]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Seems like it's getting more complicated instead of simpler. These wave interactions might not be resolved until Sunday or Monday at this rate, lol

There's a little piece of energy above the great lakes in Canada that's a little souther and stronger this run. Seems to flatten the flow just enough. Such a balancing act

 

[IronTy]

Just now, hstorm said:

I, for one, wouldn't be complaining about this.

You are right about one thing, you probably are the only one not complaining lol.  

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, hstorm said:

I, for one, wouldn't be complaining about this.

That's 2 storms lol so  north of Richmond... thats not alot for 2 events. But 204 hours out..it won't even look like that  in a week lol

[hstorm]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

That's 2 storms lol

Correct.  Can't look at just the first in isolation.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, T. August said:

Cliff jumping is silly but to see 0z so far as negative isn’t unjustified. Gfs is a miss south. CMC had good orientation but was absolutely torching. Whenever multiple ways of failing show up I definitely get nervous.

Great post. But none have shown a "miss". Yeah we probably wont jack. The pattern is by far better for the NE to jack compared to us. But we all will still get snow. Pretty much all of us. Know your climo....

[midatlanticweather]

Rather have it south than north for bullseye at this point 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

There's a little piece of energy above the great lakes in Canada that's a little souther and stronger this run. Seems to flatten the flow just enough. Such a balancing act

 

Yes I was just looking at that. Folks chided me a little earlier when I said those GL lows thar show up mid-range cna end up being a real pain. Now of course, this is indeed one run, and the strength of that low is a fine detail that won't be resolved yet. And everything else is more amplified (waiting on the euro) and not nearly that far south so far.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Rather have it south than north for bullseye at this point 

Agreed!!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Rather have it south than north for bullseye at this point 

While part of me wants to cringe given how this logic didn't help me last month...given the SER that's trying to push it may actually be a thing this time.

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS south 

[Ji]

GEFS south 

Who was the guy that said his h5 analysis showed further north early in the run

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS south 

the GEFS is a fancy OP 80% of the time so this is not surprising

[Terpeast]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is a fancy OP 80% of the time so this is not surprising

Playing follow the leader. And given how much it shifted south (2 days after euro bumped north), I think it will correct back up north a bit stepwise.