February 11-12: Is it real?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If #1 is south, so will #2.

Gfs like nah I’ll go north more 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We're more than fine.  The GFS is gonna wobble.  But the RIC folks are happy with this run

 Be curious to see if the  GEFS ensembles  also went south

[Ralph Wiggum]

The cliff jumping here is unreal

[WVclimo]

Last 3 runs

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Who is bitching?

90% of this site

[weatherkyle]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I disagree. It’s a total debacle. I have had more dandruff than snow I’m going to see according to the 0Z GFS. It’s definitely not the final solution so I’m not too worried about. 

yeah..it's still Thursday.  Even on Sunday there will be enough uncertainty that we will be gnashing our teeth.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If #1 is south, so will #2.

Snow starts...let's see where it goes

[SnowenOutThere]

Well, for those so suddenly worried about suppression I'm pretty sure the CMC will be too far the other way

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

congrats winston-salem

And RVA!!

[Ji]

Snow starts...let's see where it goes

You all deleted my thread …now we all punished

[stormtracker]

Yeah, lost the thermals after a brief start as snow

[nj2va]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

The cliff jumping here is unreal

Unbearable.  

[weatherkyle]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

And RVA!!

yup...it looks like maybe a William and Mary jack.  

[weatherkyle]

Just now, Ji said:

You all deleted my thread …now we all punished

i think Randy should close this thread ASAP and start a new one.  It's got bad juju

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Comparatively speaking, it is ugly for us.

If that's the final outcome, I'm ok with 4-6.  Even said that earlier.

Unfortunately for me it’s like 2”, but like i said it’s one run over 100 hours out. If all the models show this on Saturday night or Sunday morning, i will definitely throw a JI. 

[mitchnick]

Gem looks good

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC seems better than the gfs for sure

[stormtracker]

Imma bout to cliff jump.  Out of this thread.  @NorthArlington101, take over for Euro pbp.  I'm irritated tbh.  I'll recover for 12z.  Might be up for 6z

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, lost the thermals after a brief start as snow

Yeah I'm losing confidence in having enough thermals for any immediate follow wave(s). Seems like that's been the report for several runs now, lol

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gem looks good

Tariffs have been postponed, we'll allow it.  

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gem looks good

Please save the weenie suicides

 

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma bout to cliff jump.  Out of this thread.  @NorthArlington101, take over for Euro pbp.  I'm irritated tbh.  I'll recover for 12z.  Might be up for 6z

Stay vigilant.  

[paxpatriot]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Last 3 runs

Just your run of the mill 300 mile shift south with the heaviest snow, lol.

[winter_warlock]

    To the people  who are less then thrilled about the drop south.... its still 100+ hours. If I remember correctly. The jan 6th snowstorm  didn't get nailed down by models till almost 48 hours  before the event. Still 25 model runs( icon, gfs,euro,euro ai) and 12 model runs(  cmc,ukmet) to go  so beleive me this this gonna change at least a few more times!  So plz back off the edge of the cliff lol

[osfan24]

The most annoying part about this run is wave 1 goes south but wave 2 does not.

[Interstate]

If anyone wants to see the CMC in action.  You might have to change the parameters to get the current run.

 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[T. August]

Ralph and Mitch have their PA goggles on. Canadian is no bueno.

[IronTy]

Just now, paxpatriot said:

Just your run of the mill 300 mile shift south with the heaviest snow, lol.

That Dropsonde must've been carrying a black swan or something.  

[TSSN+]

Omg the models changed at 120 plus hours out. I’m shocked! Shocked! 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma bout to cliff jump.  Out of this thread.  @NorthArlington101, take over for Euro pbp.  I'm irritated tbh.  I'll recover for 12z.  Might be up for 6z

Lol, I’m going to sleep as well then. Punish two of us, why don’t you. It’s one run, it’s all good. I’ll bet you my testicles the Euro now comes in showing 8-12”.