February 11-12: Is it real?

[winter_warlock]

Got like 4 people giving pbp lol

[stormtracker]

It's def souther so far, just waiting for the tilt toward us

[osfan24]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Generally seems a little weaker out west but may change

Yeah, it looks weaker to me. More Euroish.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Agree. You need bionic eyesight to see a difference

Please let the run finish, lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, IronTy said:

I'm smokin a legit Cuban cohiba on the front porch right now waiting for the pbp.  

Don’t let that smoke in the house or your wife is firing your ass. Tell her it’s GFS time. You and the folks are hanging out

[Terpeast]

Bit south, bit slower. Still early

[stormtracker]

This run might not make any friends here.  Precip shield is a bit south vs 18z

[Interstate]

The H5 is much Flatter and the energy is being held back this run than the 18Z

 

[SnowenOutThere]

It also appears to be colder, though I do wonder if what the GFS is showing right now with weaker pressure out west will end up better setting us up for the storm after this thread

[Ji]

It’s trending towards euro and euro trending to gfs?

[stormtracker]

Some light snows into the area tho.

Looks like we're stepping back.  Heaviest centered down toward RIC

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This run might not make any friends here.  Precip shield is a bit south vs 18z

Hr120 is bad. Still plausible it’s just a little delayed… but not gonna be a HECS

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This run might not make any friends here.  Precip shield is a bit south vs 18z

It is getting squashed more by a piece of vorticity in southern Canada that was further north on the 18z run, along with being weaker in general

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

It also appears to be colder, though I do wonder if what the GFS is showing right now with weaker pressure out west will end up better setting us up for the storm after this thread

My exact thoughts

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hr120 is bad. Still plausible it’s just a little delayed… but not gonna be a HECS

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This run might not make any friends here.  Precip shield is a bit south vs 18z

No HECS is fine, if there's 4-8" i'll take it immediately

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Don’t let that smoke in the house or your wife is firing your ass. Tell her it’s GFS time. You and the folks are hanging out

She's at the super bowl (without me) so I'm king of the castle now and call the shots.  It's Benson and I's secret.  Boys club...

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hr120 is bad. Still plausible it’s just a little delayed… but not gonna be a HECS

I don't think it was ever gonna be a HECS

[stormtracker]

It's an ugly run.  Everything shifted south

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's an ugly run.  Everything shifted south

It’s not that bad*
 

* unless you are in N MD

[stormtracker]

Yeah, pulling out...focus is south South Central VA including RIC will be the winners.  We get snow, but radically different than 18z

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This run might not make any friends here.  Precip shield is a bit south vs 18z

Bring it down to papa

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s not that bad*
 

* unless you are in N MD

It terms of 18z...it is.  We get snow for sure

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's an ugly run.  Everything shifted south

Well  I wouldn't wanna be in the bullseye 5 days out anyway lol still 100+ hours togo

[NorthArlington101]

Some would say right where we want it. Acceptable at range 

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, Interstate said:

H5 at 60 looks like it is going to be north to me.

Good call… just delete your account now 

[stormtracker]

Looks like about 4-6, North of DC 2-4

[snowfan]

Snow max shifted way down near the NC/VA border.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s not that bad*
 

* unless you are in N MD

Yeah, wouldn’t just throw out it’s ugly.  Worse than 18z for sure, but it’s like throwing darts at this point.

[weatherkyle]

congrats winston-salem

[DDweatherman]

The GFS hopefully just doing crummy American model things like it usually does. However it’s been solid the last 2 weeks with our waves. That being said, concerning with the new dropsonde data being input with 0z.