February 11-12: Is it real?

[Weather Will]

Everyone better wake up!!!!! WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z.

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

Wow one more tick like that and we back lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Almost snows for 24 hours on the GFS. I like that 1030mb High to the NW... then there is a pretty strong system right on its tail.. going into a -EPO pattern, could be some ice. Holding that High pressure to the north?

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS compared to 0Z also ticked North.

[Interstate]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow one more tick like that and we back lol

I don’t know if it ticked north. It just looks stronger and QPF field just looks better. I do not like the orientation of the QPF up in my area. I want SW to NE and not W to E. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro AI had a very slight tick North with the overall extent of precip over its last run for the 24 hour period for the Tuesday into Wednesday am chance.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO almost continuous frozen precipitation from Tuesday midday until it ends as rain on Thursday.

 

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Everyone better wake up!!!!! WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z.

 

 

 

 

That’s much better, best post in half a day

[mitchnick]

It really needs to keep coming north today. Today's the day.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO almost continuous frozen precipitation from Tuesday midday until it ends as rain on Thursday.

 

The continuous precip idea is similar to what the AI showed the last 2 runs. I take that as a positive.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Will any chance we rebound today? EPS increased overnight

That looks fantastic! 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO almost continuous frozen precipitation from Tuesday midday until it ends as rain on Thursday.

 

There is a break between the 2 waves. The second one begins as snow before going over to mix/rain.

 

This is the actual snow map for wave one, and up to an inch of that  for central VA into S MD is from today.

 

 

[Solution Man]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That looks fantastic! 

It’s trending in our favor. This board will light up today, get some rest.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

It’s trending in our favor. This board will light up today, get some rest.

You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised. 

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised. 

the most important model runs since January 5 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised. 

Let’s do it then

[CAPE]

6z EPS

A half to 1 inch of that from about DC south is from today.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised. 

I'd argue two doesn't make a trend either but maybe in the weather world it does. Anyway to my untrained eye it doesn't look like it's coming north it's just juicier with a bigger precip shield. I'm ok with that

[wtkidz]

I know long range NAM ….

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

I know long range NAM ….

If you take the Conus view, it looks to have 2 waves like the Euro. Take a look out at Arkansas and Kansas. 

[snowmagnet]

43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z EPS

It’s interesting that a couple of days ago it looked like we would be missing out on the show to our north and worrying about a mix or rain. I still think the purple will trend a little north back to where it was for several days. At least I hope so!