February 11-12: Is it real?

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

FYP! 

That sounds like the opposite of Charmin--ouch!!

[Interstate]

The CMC was not  that bad for the forum. 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, it may be a great time for some of us to take a break from tracking for few days. We now know what's happening (or not happening) next week. But maybe a week from now we can see if the PSU pattern shows anything on the horizon 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The CMC was not  that bad for the forum. 

3-5” then mix

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Terpeast said:

3-5” then mix

That's doesn't sound half bad, really!

[NorthArlington101]

I’m not out til the EURO/EPS surrender. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not out til the EURO/EPS surrender. 

GEFS mega folded though 

[Imgoinhungry]

I’m not out til the EURO/EPS surrender. 

It already has, no? Last run kind of showed what gfs just did with the two waves giving us scraps/nothing


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[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

It already has, no? Last run kind of showed what gfs just did with the two waves giving us scraps/nothing


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In a normal world this would be a very strong signal a WAA-level storm was approaching. I’d lock the 18z EPS up immediately... as would I think most of us. 
 

[mitchnick]

Ukie

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie

6-8” DC-Balt, not the GFS, max stripe looks like 18z EPS. Fat lady hasn’t totally sung, though I’m not gonna intentionally stay up for the EURO

[mitchnick]

[T. August]

21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS mega folded though 

I was actually surprised how bad it was lmfao

[midatlanticweather]

Amazing how strong the ensembles were a few days ago. Went from solid to crap. We will see if Euro saves the day., but even it's trends are a cause for concern 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Amazing how strong the ensembles were a few days ago. Went from solid to crap. We will see if Euro saves the day., but even it's trends are a cause for concern 

Maybe not as regularly crappy as operationals, ensembles can be crappy too with their lower resolution. But if this threat fails, this has got to be the worst ensemble fail in a long time. The 24 hr ensemble means, total means, as well as medians. Simply apocalyptic should this fail imho. And the big numbers were across every ensemble. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Maybe not as regularly crappy as operationals, ensembles can be crappy too with their lower resolution. But if this threat fails, this has got to be the worst ensemble fail in a long time. The 24 hr ensemble means, total means, as well as medians. Simply apocalyptic should this fail imho. And the big numbers were across every ensemble. 

Unplug everything and start anew


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[Interstate]

Go @Bob Chill Go!!!

[WVclimo]

[Ji]

Good improvement from 18z

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Good improvement from 18z

Kuchie looks the same

[Imgoinhungry]

Good improvement from 18z

Meh. Seems to have same outcome as gfs, albeit a bit more frozen precip.


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[Ji]

Kuchie looks the same

It was wat more jucier in central Va

[Ji]

It was wat more jucier in central Va

[mitchnick]

How inspiring. G'nite.

[Weather Will]

It is the WB 6Z 12K NAM at range, but it is North of the globals.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z ICON also ticked North compared to 0Z.

[Ji]

WB 6Z ICON also ticked North.

Will any chance we rebound today? EPS increased overnight

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Will any chance we rebound today? EPS increased overnight

Let's see what GFS and EURO have to say today.  The NAM further north is a red flag for central VA. At least there is tracking.  I will try to bring us some birthday luck today!

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS is also North compared to 0Z.

[Ji]

Gfs tikin north. Rebound day