winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Terpeast said: Ha, 2nd wave brings rain up north of NYC Of course it does lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: We had such hope about a week ago. And now It's all just going to crap! Lol we gotta get a new hobby lol 3 days ago it looked great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: 3 days ago it looked great! 24 hours ago it still looked great, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, notvirga! said: 3 days ago it looked great! Yup amazing how quickly it changes. Oh well. On to the following week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I just don’t get how we go from 10- 0 La Ninas of years past have produced eerily similar fails. Folks might remember that one mid Feb 2021 threat (also February 12th I think?) that had two waves to it. Guidance converged on both waves producing a flush hit from 100+hrs out and I think even the Euro within hour 70 had a widespread 6-12". However, the same 1st wave weak second wave too strong thing happened. It is excessively difficult to put stock in these multi-wave solutions when there is so much give and take to how the guidance places emphasis on either phase of the thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Ha, 2nd wave brings rain up north of NYC A couple days ago the runs that gave us 12-18” that second wave didn’t even exist. The models were totally wrong on which wave to amplify. They were keying on the wrong SW all along. Now they’re jumping on a SW they washed out before and it’s canibalizing our storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Your 0 -3 Yup ill be 0-5 after ukmet and euro come up tonight lmaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Think it may be time to start a new thread on this one and try to use the second thread revival trick of last year… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago we can't just have a simple low coming out of the gulf and riding up the coast like old times, huh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Think it may be time to start a new thread on this one and try to use the second thread revival trick of last year… I agree!! Hell it couldn't hurt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1500 miles of blue and were in the green shade. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the runs that gave us 12-18” that second wave didn’t even exist. The models were totally wrong on which wave to amplify. They were keying on the wrong SW all along. Now they’re jumping on a SW they washed out before and it’s canibalizing our storm. Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Chris78 said: 1500 miles of blue and were in the green shade. Lol Now that's just cruel!!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the runs that gave us 12-18” that second wave didn’t even exist. The models were totally wrong on which wave to amplify. They were keying on the wrong SW all along. Now they’re jumping on a SW they washed out before and it’s canibalizing our storm. It all started when the Pacific dropsonde was ingested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho Agreed. I'm looking forward to the possibilities around the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Think it may be time to start a new thread on this one and try to use the second thread revival trick of last year… Ehhh not sure that's gonna work this time, lol Imo, would require a large reversal from today's trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Interstate said: It all started when the Pacific dropsonde was ingested. Yep, that was the first clue of this going off the rails. I would take these data assimilation exercises seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Interstate said: It all started when the Pacific dropsonde was ingested. Are those dropsondes routine or do they only drop them during times of particularly active weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Scraff said: Well this was a fun week of tracking flurries. Ohh well. It's what we do!! Dont always pan out but we live for it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Are those dropsondes routine or do they only drop them during times of particularly active weather? They don’t always do this, but I think they did it this time for other reasons we’re probably not interested in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho Oh none of this has changed my mind about what’s coming. I always liked later in Feb better once the blocking gets going and has time to impact the storm track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh none of this has changed my mind about what’s coming. I always liked later in Feb better once the blocking gets going and has time to impact the storm track. That's the Time period im looking at also. We may have a better pattern and actual blocking !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately this run continues the trend that the further south wave 1 the further north wave 2. It’s a lose lose. There was a path to a win win if both waves split the energy just right. But a stronger wave 2 is the worse case scenario. See, this is why I jumped ship earlier today! Once I read what you and Heisy said, and saw the trends from 6z on, you could tell this was not a trend that was gonna come back. The precip on those 3 runs shrunk like wet paper! And how we role around here...a Day 2-4 shift like that we don't easily come back from. And your explanation makes sense about the models keying in on the wrong wave. Something to learn from... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The thread name needs to be changed to February 11-25: Is it real? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago sigh it was all a dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The precip on those 3 runs shrunk like wet crisp dry paper! FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: The thread name needs to be changed to February 11-25: Is it real? Lmaoooo. Make it happen bro!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lmaoooo. Make it happen bro!! lol Call it: Dropside indigestion storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Well, it may be a great time for some of us to take a break from tracking for few days. We now know what's happening (or not happening) next week. But maybe a week from now we can see if the PSU pattern shows anything on the horizon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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