February 11-12: Is it real?

[Weather Will]

Interesting the 18Z EPS still has many big hits thru Day 6

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Of course, doesn’t mean it’s not a kick in the nuts and we can’t be bummed about it. 

A kick in the nuts just sounds downright unpleasant  lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Interesting the 18Z EPS still has many big hits thru Day 6

Yup too many big hits to be ignored!!

[frd]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Nice, yep. 

Only got 2.4 inches here from Jan 6th. 

I been frustrated,  but I am holding psu to the bigger dog in our neck of the woods eventually .  Good luck Rev, maybe we score over the next 30 days with a warning level snowfall.    

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.

Feb 2021 was the last time I saw a 5” event. It’s been much longer for places to my east. 

[mitchnick]

AI Tuesday storm kicked back north by maybe 30-40+ miles. It's a start maybe.

[Maestrobjwa]

36 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Baltimore northwest has been bad too. Here in Owings Mills we still haven’t had a snow greater than 6” since I moved here in 2018—so possibly going back to 2016. To 

 

39 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Yeah, it's been fucking bleak on the north side of Baltimore for YEARS now. Was just telling my son how literally EVERYONE around us has scored nicely at some point over the last few years - but Baltimore and N/NE has been a persistent snow anus. In that context, the 18Z suits is a disaster. More of the same rerun we've seen literally dozens of times now lately. Disheartening. Yet again.

This. So to all of you complaining about our complaining, WE HAVE A PASS, hereby granting us immunity from said complaints until we get 7" of snow or more again, so HUSH 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI Tuesday storm kicked back north by maybe 30-40+ miles. It's a start maybe.

Part 2 of the storm is weaker, colder and all snow for most DC north.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Part 2 of the storm is weaker, colder and all snow for most DC north.

Yea if part 1 trended north…I wonder if the relationship is inverse. Meaning a north wave one means a south wave 2 because wave 1 takes more of the energy and the return flow behind it suppresses the boundary for wave 2. Some were assuming a south wave 1 means south wave 2 but I think it’s the opposite. 

[mitchnick]

In case anybody cares, though I know this thread is for next week, looks like there's a PD2.5. As depicted, coastal areas to best but heavy precip went west of Rt. 15.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea if part 1 trended north…I wonder if the relationship is inverse. Meaning a north wave one means a south wave 2 because wave 1 takes more of the energy and the return flow behind it suppresses the boundary for wave 2. Some were assuming a south wave 1 means south wave 2 but I think it’s the opposite. 

I thought the same. There's only so much energy to be split between the 2 in one way or the other. 

[deer]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea if part 1 trended north…I wonder if the relationship is inverse. Meaning a north wave one means a south wave 2 because wave 1 takes more of the energy and the return flow behind it suppresses the boundary for wave 2. Some were assuming a south wave 1 means south wave 2 but I think it’s the opposite. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In case anybody cares, though I know this thread is for next week, looks like there's a PD2.5. As depicted, coastal areas to best but heavy precip went west of Rt. 15.

Another monster, probably the best for all parts of the forum, on 2/20.

CORRECTION: It's not quite as big as I thought but it's decent. I thought I had the qpf maps on 6 hour maps but it was on 12 hour. Sorry....and shut up JI!

[EastCoast NPZ]

The NW part of the county has, but Stephens City has not had a 6" snowfall since 2016.

[aldie 22]

So can this thing morph into one storm  instead of two pieces?

[Interstate]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

So can this thing morph into one storm  instead of two pieces?

I don’t believe so.  Spacing is too far about. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

So can this thing morph into one storm  instead of two pieces?

Gets close

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The NW part of the county has, but Stephens City has not had a 6" snowfall since 2016.

That’s actually insane. I think my current home now has seen 7 since then. Moved here in 2021 so I didn’t see a couple of the best (3/2017 and 1/2021). I think those were both double digit storms at my house. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I thought the same. There's only so much energy to be split between the 2 in one way or the other. 

Damn physics 

[WVclimo]

18 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The NW part of the county has, but Stephens City has not had a 6" snowfall since 2016.

Dang.  That’s brutal.  I have had seven storms of more than 6” in that time.

[LP08]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea if part 1 trended north…I wonder if the relationship is inverse. Meaning a north wave one means a south wave 2 because wave 1 takes more of the energy and the return flow behind it suppresses the boundary for wave 2. Some were assuming a south wave 1 means south wave 2 but I think it’s the opposite. 

 

[TowsonWeather]

57 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Jan 6th was the first 6+ inch storm ( 6.1 inches actually lol) I had here in sparrows point MD  since the blizzard of 2016

We didn't even get to 6 here in Towson. 

[IronTy]

29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The NW part of the county has, but Stephens City has not had a 6" snowfall since 2016.

Damn, Calvert's a snow town compared to that.  

[Chris78]

@mitchnick alluded to the bump north from the AI. 

Pretty nice increase for the Northern crew.

 Hopefully the start of something.

Edit : Actually a nice .2 -.3 qpf  increase for most.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@mitchnick alluded to the bump north from the AI. 

Pretty nice increase for the Northern crew.

 Hopefully the start of something.

I’d buy that at this point if I could. @Terpeastis right it’s bouncing around based on minor changes but the larger trend has been less amplified which fits the seasonal trend but isn’t what we want. 

[notvirga!]

25 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Dang.  That’s brutal.  I have had seven storms of more than 6” in that time.

Yeah Stephen’s city is shockingly bad at snow 

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, LP08 said:

 

That looks like me trying to figure out what my wife wants for dinner ! 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@mitchnick alluded to the bump north from the AI. 

Pretty nice increase for the Northern crew.

 Hopefully the start of something.

Edit : Actually a nice .2 -.3 qpf  increase for most.

Here's part 2 qpf

[Heisy]

I’d buy that at this point if I could. [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention]is right it’s bouncing around based on minor changes but the larger trend has been less amplified which fits the seasonal trend but isn’t what we want. 

As pointed on our discord a good thing about this event is there isn’t some tpv sitting over us ready to squash it. It’s really just how strong the energy is that comes out of the southwest. Type of event where a last second N trend could in the cards. I’m just really trying to break 6” out here just NE of Philly


.

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Here's part 2 qpf

And that's mostly snow?