February 11-12: Is it real?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

its still a pretty wet run down south. still dont believe Richmond will be the bullseye for this storm

You have to realize most of the people dooming this are in northeast MD. I know you think you’ve had it bad but they’ve had it 2x worse. I’ve been lucky I’ve caught some of the SE edge of storms that went just to our regions north over the last 8 years like 2 weeks ago.  But there is an area from Baltimore northeast in our forum that’s had absolutely no good snowstorms the last 8 years. Every single one fringed them. Some went north. Some did what this one is looking like.  But it’s absolutely amazing. I keep saying it’s just random bad luck but my god. 

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

@dailylurkercalling it now. That e-w stripe thru RIC is actually an E-W stripe thru sterling, silver spring, crofton, annapolis, and @CAPE

 

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! 

(Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example)

Combining both these points, imo it depends if we see a change in the orientation of the precip. The better runs had a SW-NE trajectory. This W-E trajectory won’t work. It’s not coming at us from a high enough latitude if it’s not amplifying and gaining latitude. If it was we would have temp issues because the thermal gradient is situated such that we need a wave that’s gaining some latitude as it progresses. 
 

Also in general the north trend is real in non blocking regimes but NOT when the wave is on a W-E trajectory. Waves that are gaining latitude tend to trend north. I’ve noticed through when a wave is not gaining any latitude on its way east it actually trends south more often. I think it’s just a product of the fact that if a wave isn’t gaining latitude it’s not amplifying but also it would take an error earlier in the process where the storm has to start out further north. The north trend is usually from models underestimating the feedback from the southerly flow ahead of the wave once it gets going not from a placement error of the wave as it ejects into the plains.

TLDR version, if we bet to 72 hours out and this still has a W-E trajectory it probably is going to stay south. If it starts to take on a SW-NE trajectory we are good.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hopefully, Eps will prevail. 120hrs for storm 1 and 144hrs for 2, or part of it.

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

Beggers...

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

I honestly focused more on @mitchnick's first image ending on Wednesday, Feb. 12, which is for the first event or whatever we're calling it.  That mean is a lot better looking than what the ops GFS and Euro showed, and the GEFS mean, for that time frame.  But I agree to some extent, the lower plot that shows snow through Thursday, that total will involve some kind of snow/ice to rain for the 2nd event at this point.

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

I just don’t feel like this is true? It’s one window… well two if you counting tomorrow’s dusting. I dunno about 3 2” events 

[T. August]

18z euro definitely south of its ens (eps did shift a noise-level amount south though). Surprisingly, there are still some amped solutions that miss to the north.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

So how long have you been on these boards?

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

 

Another way to fail.      All good, I am use to a buffet of failure this winter here.  

Oh, you are not a horrible person. 

[TowsonWeather]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to realize most of the people dooming this are in northeast MD. I know you think you’ve had it bad but they’ve had it 2x worse. I’ve been lucky I’ve caught some of the SE edge of storms that went just to our regions north over the last 8 years like 2 weeks ago.  But there is an area from Baltimore northeast in our forum that’s had absolutely no good snowstorms the last 8 years. Every single one fringed them. Some went north. Some did what this one is looking like.  But it’s absolutely amazing. I keep saying it’s just random bad luck but my god. 

 

Combining both these points, imo it depends if we see a change in the orientation of the precip. The better runs had a SW-NE trajectory. This W-E trajectory won’t work. It’s not coming at us from a high enough latitude if it’s not amplifying and gaining latitude. If it was we would have temp issues because the thermal gradient is situated such that we need a wave that’s gaining some latitude as it progresses. 
 

Also in general the north trend is real in non blocking regimes but NOT when the wave is on a W-E trajectory. Waves that are gaining latitude tend to trend north. I’ve noticed through when a wave is not gaining any latitude on its way east it actually trends south more often. I think it’s just a product of the fact that if a wave isn’t gaining latitude it’s not amplifying but also it would take an error earlier in the process where the storm has to start out further north. The north trend is usually from models underestimating the feedback from the southerly flow ahead of the wave once it gets going not from a placement error of the wave as it ejects into the plains.

TLDR version, if we bet to 72 hours out and this still has a W-E trajectory it probably is going to stay south. If it starts to take on a SW-NE trajectory we are good.  

Yeah, it's been fucking bleak on the north side of Baltimore for YEARS now. Was just telling my son how literally EVERYONE around us has scored nicely at some point over the last few years - but Baltimore and N/NE has been a persistent snow anus. In that context, the 18Z suits is a disaster. More of the same rerun we've seen literally dozens of times now lately. Disheartening. Yet again.

[notvirga!]

Baltimore northwest has been bad too. Here in Owings Mills we still haven’t had a snow greater than 6” since I moved here in 2018—so possibly going back to 2016. To 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Yeah, it's been fucking bleak on the north side of Baltimore for YEARS now. Was just telling my son how literally EVERYONE around us has scored nicely at some point over the last few years - but Baltimore and N/NE has been a persistent snow anus. In that context, the 18Z suits is a disaster. More of the same rerun we've seen literally dozens of times now lately. Disheartening. Yet again.

It's actually pretty weird that the lowlands have done better than Baltimore County for years. I had a nearly 10" storm 4 weeks ago and you guys got scraps. I understand your pain. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

We luv ya man. It's ok to be honest. We just suck at winter anymore. But!.....Nino next year. We fucking got this!

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Beggers...

 

You’ve obviously not run into some of the beggars I have!  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just don’t feel like this is true? It’s one window… well two if you counting tomorrow’s dusting. I dunno about 3 2” events 

Good look for dc. It’s gonna snow.   

[Terpeast]

Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.

[ChillinIt]

40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

In 24 hours I bet we are worried about mixing again and too far north! LOL! 

 

 

I will wager on that!  I will take North!

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just don’t feel like this is true? It’s one window… well two if you counting tomorrow’s dusting. I dunno about 3 2” events 

I was talking about for Mitch and my area. And to be fair it’s 1”, 3”, 2” 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You’ve obviously not run into some of the beggars I have!  

Beggars can't be choosers lol

[RevWarReenactor]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to realize most of the people dooming this are in northeast MD. I know you think you’ve had it bad but they’ve had it 2x worse. I’ve been lucky I’ve caught some of the SE edge of storms that went just to our regions north over the last 8 years like 2 weeks ago.  But there is an area from Baltimore northeast in our forum that’s had absolutely no good snowstorms the last 8 years. Every single one fringed them. Some went north. Some did what this one is looking like.  But it’s absolutely amazing. I keep saying it’s just random bad luck but my god. 

 

 

Yep, we haven't had a 6 inch snowstorm here since the Blizzard of 2016, and only 2 storms over 4 inches. Almost 10 years. Its truly amazing. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.

They'll be ok

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’m gonna be a deb here and point out our 6” mean is from 3 waves 2” at a time with rain in between. That’s kinda meh. Sorry if that offends some. No I don’t need 8”+ to be happy. I was tickled pink by the 6” snow I got last month.  But a bunch of 2” fringe jobs doesn’t do much for me. If that makes me a horrible person so be it. 

That's actually not bad.   A good half foot for alot of us. Id be extremely  happy with that

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

They'll be ok

Heartless bastid!

[winter_warlock]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hopefully, Eps will prevail. 120hrs for storm 1 and 144hrs for 2, or part of it.

So the EPS ensembles actually.  Showed more snow for Tuesday then the operational....  imagine that lol 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We luv ya man. It's ok to be honest. We just suck at winter anymore. But!.....Nino next year. We fucking got this!

I’m still optimistic for the window I’ve always felt good about. Funny thing is for a week I stuck to the feeling this wasn’t really going to work. The analogs to this pattern just aren’t big snow for our area. Small snow yea. But ironically after run after run of big snow I let myself start to think ok this might happen. Then it immediately went sideways. It’s not over.  Not saying that. Just I should have stick to my gut and not started to get excited lol.  

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yep, we haven't had a 6 inch snowstorm here since the Blizzard of 2016, and only 2 storms over 4 inches. Almost 10 years. Its truly amazing. 

Jan 6th was the first 6+ inch storm ( 6.1 inches actually lol) I had here in sparrows point MD  since the blizzard of 2016

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.

Lol this sounds kinda like an acknowledgement that we’re in trouble up here with this one. It’s ok we know. We’re hard to it. But ya it’s been crazy weird. Again due to my elevation I’ve been lucky that some marginal events worked for me. But lower elevations from Baltimore north it’s been by far their worst stretch ever. Longest period without a warning snow by a large margin!  I can’t explain it. It’s as if there is a force field making every storm go north or south. To rub salt in the wound a couple storms that imo should have broke the curse ended up with bad boundary temps that cut what should have been an 8” snow to a 4” slop storm. I can’t explain it. Probably just chance like getting heads 5 times in a row. Unlikely but it happens. 

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Jan 6th was the first 6+ inch storm ( 6.1 inches actually lol) I had here in sparrows point MD  since the blizzard of 2016

Nice, yep. 

Only got 2.4 inches here from Jan 6th. 

[Kay]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.

I didn't catch any posts needing an apology but this is thoughtful thanks. Snow is serious business, eh? Our time will come. NE MD will be pummeled again as god is my witness! Even here in The Lowlands of SE Harford.

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

They'll be ok

Of course, doesn’t mean it’s not a kick in the nuts and we can’t be bummed about it. 

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We luv ya man. It's ok to be honest. We just suck at winter anymore. But!.....Nino next year. We fucking got this!

This winter  isn't over bro it's only Feb 7th still  2 months to go!!!