February 11-12: Is it real?

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The evolution looks weird to me.  Nothing in MD until  Tuesday evening and then a last gasp....

 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No but we all have superstitions or believe in back luck. lol 

Alright so we've had no for know (or new for knew) 43 hours for Day 4, and now...back luck! So, how's everybody else's back luck? 

[winter_warlock]

  My sister lives in Richmond .. she Said news  said NWS is saying not much in the way of snow. Maybe mix. Temps  could be in 40s.  So I thi k snow maps are way over done lol I even checked the Richmond noaa site and it does say.  Mix with temps to low 40s  so snow maps over done lol

[Paleocene]

@dailylurkercalling it now. That e-w stripe thru RIC is actually an E-W stripe thru sterling, silver spring, crofton, annapolis, and @CAPE

[dailylurker]

Just now, Paleocene said:

@dailylurkercalling it now. That e-w stripe thru RIC is actually an E-W stripe thru sterling, silver spring, crofton, annapolis, and @CAPE

This is our winter. You damn right it is. LFG! lol

[Scraff]

Fuuuuuuu. I drive home from DC and we got Short Pumped! Oooof!! 

[winter_warlock]

It's obvious that. We're still 100hours out and models have no idea wtf is going on lol

[Fozz]

Well that is a disappointing run.

[Sernest14]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

  My sister lives in Richmond .. she Said news  said NWS is saying not much in the way of snow. Maybe mix. Temps  could be in 40s.  So I thi k snow maps are way over done lol I even checked the Richmond noaa site and it does say.  Mix with temps to low 40s  so snow maps over done lol

Modeled temps from both gfs and euro are in the low to mid 30s…

[Ji]

Lol the gfs isn’t a serious model. Look next weekend on 18z vs 12z

[T. August]

Gefs pretty much the same as 12z. 2-4” mean. We need the euro to save the day lol.

[87storms]

The Thursday threat is the one that looks like it has more potential...just not cold enough at this time.  The Tuesday situation always seemed waffly...not a big fan of being on the northern edge of systems anymore...I've seen that play out often the last few years and it usually means scraps up here.  We need a real storm, not these systems that weaken upon approach.  We'll just need to see which of these waves becomes the dominant one.

[NorthArlington101]

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol the gfs isn’t a serious model. Look next weekend on 18z vs 12z

It really isn't. I'm almost to the point of not even looking at it. Who am I kidding. See you at 11. 

[jaydreb]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks good to me.  

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Modeled temps from both gfs and euro are in the low to mid 30s…

Doesn't mean that are right lol I'm in north central md and have temps modeled in the mid 30s lol hard to beleive theyed have same temps 120 miles south

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 days spent tracking this??  We all need new hobbies.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol the gfs isn’t a serious model. Look next weekend on 18z vs 12z

Why expect it to be the same? Different op run at range- more than a week out.

[TSG]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Well that is a disappointing run.

I couldn't disagree more! 

 

GIMME 10" OF COLD SMOKE BABY  

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

7 days spent tracking this??  We all need new hobbies.

I could 100% see this one as being the appetizer event for the follow up waves as the pattern shifts east.

[Ruin]

and a swing and a miss 

[CAPE]

Don't sleep on late next weekend/PD. Probably not PD III but I have kind of liked that period. Some ens members on the 12z run were pretty interesting.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, CAPE said:

Don't sleep on late next weekend/PD. Probably not PD III but I have kind of liked that period. Some ens members on the 12z run were pretty interesting.

Yeah well ensembles  looked amazing for us for Tuesdays  storm 3 days ago lol but that changed  lol

[aldie 22]

Is now the time we all start talking about when we joined Eastern?

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Is now the time we all start talking about when we joined Eastern?

Why?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yeah well ensembles  looked amazing for us for Tuesdays  storm 3 days ago lol but that changed  lol

I never said the ensembles looked amazing for next weekend, but there is some uncertainly for that period wrt the overall evolution and storm track.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, CAPE said:

I never said the ensembles looked amazing for next weekend, but there is some uncertainly for that period wrt the overall evolution and storm track.

Ok ill give ya that bro!!

[winter_warlock]

Well at least the models can all agree we won't have temps in the mid 90s next week 

[Sernest14]

20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Doesn't mean that are right lol I'm in north central md and have temps modeled in the mid 30s lol hard to beleive theyed have same temps 120 miles south

That’s not how it works

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Sernest14 said:

That’s not how it works

Well being 120 Mile's south would make ya a lil warmer