February 11-12: Is it real?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its not really dramatic. we will see i guess

Got better, but it's not gonna be as wet as 12z.  I'd bet a general 4-6.   Prob gonna look like the Euro.  That's decent for us

[Ji]

id let the run play out--it maybe delayed with the good stuff--there is heavy precip in the TN valley that is still far away?

[stormtracker]

Honestly, it's not terrible.  Only if you expected the 12z again would it be "bad"

[TSSN+]

Never should have started a thread for this yet lol 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

id let the run play out--it maybe delayed with the good stuff--there is heavy precip in the TN valley that is still far away?

It's a RIC storm on this run.  But we're not shut out.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Got better, but it's not gonna be as wet as 12z.  I'd bet a general 4-6.   Prob gonna look like the Euro.  That's decent for us

Decent but a clear bleed in the wrong direction. Color me shocked, lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Never should have started a thread for this yet lol 

Yup, that's what I was trying to tell yall

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

you'd look at the general radar and think we'd get slammed but it's not climbing

was so close to excellence - but still good. Let me just check the last 10 posts shared to see if they agree

[stormtracker]

RIC gets wrecked pretty good.  Looks like a general 4-6.  North of DC....well uh...less

[stormtracker]

People shouldn't be on the ledge.  It's windshield wipering.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, that's what I was trying to tell yall

I said it too I was like isn’t 5 days to early but oh well. Lol

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

was so close to excellence - but still good. Let me just check the last 10 posts shared to see if they agree

Juiced - just need relatively minor adjustments or a more robust NE shield then modeled.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

People shouldn't be on the ledge.  It's windshield wipering.

Oh I’m sure a run coming soon showing 20” again. The models having troubles with this 

[clskinsfan]

[LP08]

Richmond a foot, dc about 5-6…less north, more as you move further south.

[CAPE]

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

People shouldn't be on the ledge.  It's windshield wipering.

The overall trend across the models today is only in one direction though (drier less amped). And GFS has been the most amped out of the bunch, so the fact that it's now showing a lower end might be a clue as to what the other guidance will look, imo

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I said it too I was like isn’t 5 days to early but oh well. Lol

I assume you’re a pretty bright guy, do you actually think starting a thread affects the weather. It’s so nonsensical it’s almost not believable. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Oh I’m sure a run coming soon showing 20” again. The models having troubles with this 

If I gambled I'd bet the house that will not be happening this time, lol

[Ji]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Richmond a foot, dc about 5-6…less north, more as you move further south.

its still a pretty wet run down south. still dont believe Richmond will be the bullseye for this storm

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Like I said, it;'s not terrible...DC south

[Solution Man]

It’s Friday, but if we want a big number, gotta start seeing the trend north 24 hours from now.

[WVclimo]

It’s almost as far south as last nights 00Z when the bottom fell out.  Lost all the northward movement we picked up since that run.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If I gambled I'd bet the house that will not be happening this time, lol

Go have some drinks man.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Looks like 0z last night. Though it looked like this run moved a bit more focus to the reinforcing energy like @psuhoffman said. May be in between outcomes in that regard. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I assume you’re a pretty bright guy, do you actually think starting a thread affects the weather. It’s so nonsensical it’s almost not believable. 

Superstition is not logical, lol And that's what this is. Just like players that wear a lucky sock or cleat--two things that logically should have nothing to do with their performance...thus there's a belief in certain things being bad luck. The whole consternation over starting a thread is one of those things...

P.S. I do not have said superstition about starting a thread. Just pointing out what may be behind it for those that do.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

It’s almost as far south as last nights 00Z when the bottom fell out.  Lost all the northward movement we picked up since that run.

[Weather Will]

The evolution looks weird to me.  Nothing in central or northern MD until Tuesday evening and then a last gasp....if this is how it plays out I am skeptical much makes it up here at all with this wave.

 

[Snowman.]

Pretty decent spot to be in. 4-6” is a solid bar and with a very possible north trend later by the the models up to a foot is still possible.

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I assume you’re a pretty bright guy, do you actually think starting a thread affects the weather. It’s so nonsensical it’s almost not believable. 

No but we all have superstitions or believe in back luck. lol