February 11-12: Is it real?

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

This place after every model run 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, T. August said:

I hear you but the eps was a little too amped for a lot of people at 6z. 

Unfortunately there are places in here that are not in the same boat. If you are 50 miles south of DC you want a solution that is awful for me lol. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately there are places in here that are not in the same boat. If you are 50 miles south of DC you want a solution that is awful for me lol. 

Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol

[adelphi_sky]

It only takes 3-4 inches to turn the area into a winter wonderland. I'm still optimistic. Still holding on to my conservative guess of 12" though. I'm a glutton for punishment. hehe.

[Demeter]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol

How’s that looking?  I know I’m a 50 miles south of dc girl, but the last 3 days have been a wild ride down here. 

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol

Fail scenario for Northern areas

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol

Alright that's one (albeit inferior) piece of guidance that's doing the ugly scenario a few of us suspected.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Demeter said:

How’s that looking?  I know I’m a 50 miles south of dc girl, but the last 3 days have been a wild ride down here. 

The Icon says you get around 4" before it's washed away, while I  only get 2-2.5" before it gets washed away. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The Icon says you get around 4" before it's washed away, while I  only get 2-2.5" before it gets washed away. 

washed away with what? On Wednesday the temps are well below 32

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2025020718/icon_T2m_us_40.png

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Fail scenario for Northern areas

That models a fail

[WxUSAF]

If you believe in seasonal trends, and I do, then one this year is mid range  deamplification. Certainly been true for this weekends event. Probably linked to blocking verifying stronger at shorter lead times. For this event, I think we’re seeing that manifest as lower MECS potential, but also less mixing risk in metro areas. That deamp trend also hasn’t persisted until  game time. This is also relevant for any follow on waves next week I think.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If you believe in seasonal trends, and I do, then one this year is mid range  deamplification. Certainly been true for this weekends event. Probably linked to blocking verifying stronger at shorter lead times. For this event, I think we’re seeing that manifest as lower MECS potential, but also less mixing risk in metro areas. That deamp trend also hasn’t persisted until  game time. This is also relevant for any follow on waves next week I think.

I was thinking about this earlier. Good point! Unfortunately no modeling is safe even 12 hours from gametime. We can't be comfortable until there's 3 on the ground and moderate/heavy falling

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

washed away with what? On Wednesday the temps are well below 32

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2025020718/icon_T2m_us_40.png

At 120 hrs there's little doubt in my mind that the warmth to the south will put us all above freezing based on these maps as the slp passes well west of us. BUT, I'm not saying (yet) the Icon is right, though the trend toward it is there.

[T. August]

20 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Fail scenario for Northern areas

lol it’s a fail scenario for most people.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

lol it’s a fail scenario for most people.

it's not that exciting but I'm hardly gonna turn my nose up at a 2-4"er

[Paleocene]

Note to self: compare ICON maps from 100 hours out to what actually happens

[T. August]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

it's not that exciting but I'm hardly gonna turn my nose up at a 2-4"er

I could be wrong but I feel like that 10:1 is generous lol

[stormtracker]

Ok, GFS time.  No notable changes so far...coming up our relevant panels in probably five mins or so.

[Solution Man]

Who has the mic?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, T. August said:

I could be wrong but I feel like that 10:1 is generous lol

It looks about identical to the Kuchera - idk we'll see. 8:1... 10:1... still basically a 2-4" 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 120 hrs there's little doubt in my mind that the warmth to the south will put us all above freezing based on these maps as the slp passes well west of us. BUT, I'm not saying (yet) the Icon is right, though the trend toward it is there.

sorry yes agree---i thought you were just talking about the run through 120. Thats alot of snow and ice combo

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok, GFS time.  No notable changes so far...coming up our relevant panels in probably five mins or so.

I see ya

[stormtracker]

Very early on, the angle of attack seems to be a tad souther...let's see if it propagates to our relevant period

[stormtracker]

Definitely drier out west.  Seems as though this run will cut back on precip

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Definitely drier out west.  Seems as though this run will cut back on precip

just a hair less north too

[stormtracker]

Dry af compared to 12z so far...seems like heaviest will slide south of us

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Definitely drier out west.  Seems as though this run will cut back on precip

its not really dramatic. we will see i guess

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

its not really dramatic. we will see i guess

you'd look at the general radar and think we'd get slammed but it's not climbing

[stormtracker]

Heh..a lil warmer too.    Moderate to heavy looks south to RIC.  They have the 850s. but not the surface..

[Weather Will]

Stinks this run. ..