February 11-12: Is it real?

[grhqofb5]

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

It's just one page back.

Here it is again for anyone who missed it. Hope we don't have anyone freak out in Loudoun County/Leesburg area.

 

[WxUSAF]

EPS is solid. 5-6” metros and vicinity.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yep, I had a feeling it was going to head this way after the 6z euro Ai run. Yesterday I was starting to feel potential high end SECS event now it’s looking like another 2-4”er

.

I guess for up in Philly you might wanna wave the white flag and go 2-4.  I don't see why DC and Baltimore should do this at this juncture....

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I mean how about 0 inches? Would that be better? Just sayin'! 

3-6" (or less if the trend continues) immediately washed away kinda feels like 0 inches to me. I mean it will be a nice add to the totals, though! But ya really won't have time to enjoy it even as scenery because of the rain in that scenario.

Hoping the lead wave prevails!

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS is solid. 5-6” metros and vicinity.

Yeah definitely decent. It’s a little more south/dry but it’s hard to complain when the mean is 5” for most in the forum.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Yeah definitely decent. It’s a little more south/dry but it’s hard to complain when the mean is 5” for most in the forum.

South and dry may not be what we wanna see though...could be the start of a trend. We'll see...

[T. August]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

South and dry may not be what we wanna see though...could be the start of a trend. We'll see...

I hear you but the eps was a little too amped for a lot of people at 6z. 

[dailylurker]

Looks like flooding is the biggest threat over the next 10 days. We need it. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like flooding is the biggest threat over the next 10 days. We need it. 

Yeah big parade of rainers after Tuesday.  I'm hoping we can have one more nice threat window towards the last week of February before we wave the white flag in the metros.

[WVclimo]

EPS 12Z yesterday, 00Z last night, 12Z today.

[Scraff]

Have you guys looked at the German model? It’s phenomenal!  Gives my backyard 12oz of pilsner. 
 

PS—Anyone in DC today and need a beer? I’m working remote today from Other Half Brewing. It’s a rough life, but someone has to do it! 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

EPS 12Z yesterday, 00Z last night, 12Z today.

Pretty clear de-amplification trend.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Have you guys looked at the German model? It’s phenomenal!  Gives my backyard 12oz of pilsner. 
 

PS—Anyone in DC today and need a beer? I’m working remote today from Other Half Brewing. It’s a rough life, but someone has to do it! 

Ah! You are only a mile or so away. Been there a few times and they’ve got a lot of awesome options. Remote work has ended, but very jealous of your day. 

[Scraff]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Ah! You are only a mile or so away. Been there a few times and they’ve got a lot of awesome options. Remote work has ended, but very jealous of your day. 

Swing by!! I’ll treat!! I’ve got an hour and 45 on the meter. And sorry for the banter in here. Back to our storm now…

[T. August]

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

EPS 12Z yesterday, 00Z last night, 12Z today.

Yeah can’t deny the shift south but looking at the individual members, they look great. I still think 8-10” is the ceiling.

[Terpeast]

I’m totally fine with the south shift as long as the Tue wave maintains enough strength to give us decent qpf. The danger now is that it weakens so much that it becomes a non event, or an advisory for RIC, then the storm after pushes thermals north of us. It’s still unlikely, but not impossible. 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Swing by!! I’ll treat!! I’ve got an hour and 45 on the meter. And sorry for the banter in here. Back to our storm now…

Man gots money.   

See you soon.  And as we all know, I can drink.  Set up the second mortgage for the bill while I'm on my way.  

[mitchnick]

AI cut back again some on qpf. Maybe .1"? That's a guess.

Storm 2 probably starts as some snow then changes over. Should stay pretty cold on the surface as it's a brief warmup.

Other threats on Long Range thread.

[psuhoffman]

Just a thought. But people can feel how they want. We don’t all have to agree or want the same things. Every time someone says they like it don’t like a run we don’t need 5 posts telling them why they shouldn’t feel that way! 
 

I have been as big an offender at this as anyone. I will own that and I’m going to try to do better myself. 

[Scraff]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man gots money.   

See you soon.  And as we all know, I can drink.  Set up the second mortgage for the bill while I'm on my way.  

38 mins left on the meter. Hurry the F up! I’m old school and not using ParkMobile. So I can’t re-up just sitting here waiting for you. The free beer options are heading towards sunset. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

38 mins left on the meter. Hurry the F up! I’m old school and not using ParkMobile. So I can’t re-up just sitting here waiting for you. The free beer options are heading towards sunset. 

Heh, I was joking man.  I'm stuck at work.  It's Friday, so I'm basically surfing the web.  I've reached the end of the internet.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just a thought. But people can feel how they want. We don’t all have to agree or want the same things. Every time someone says they like it don’t like a run we don’t need 5 posts telling them why they shouldn’t feel that way! 
 

I have been as big an offender at this as anyone. I will own that and I’m going to try to do better myself. 

True.  We also don't need 50 doom posts with tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth from everyone who frets over every single change in every single model run or when some crazy 15" amount becomes 4-8".

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

True.  We also don't need 50 doom posts with tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth from everyone who frets over every single change in every single model run or when some crazy 15" amount becomes 4-8".

The doom posts only bother you if you let them.  Is it better to have a thread full of posts telling people how to feel?   

[H2O]

This place after every model run 

[T. August]

Didn’t see anyone mention, but the 12z geps isn’t bad at all. A few tenths fall after this in northern areas.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Have you guys looked at the German model? It’s phenomenal!  Gives my backyard 12oz of pilsner. 
 

PS—Anyone in DC today and need a beer? I’m working remote today from Other Half Brewing. It’s a rough life, but someone has to do it! 

Meh...looks drier.  You had a bigger glass at 00Z!

[Ji]

Didn’t see anyone mention, but the 12z geps isn’t bad at all. A few tenths fall after this in northern areas.

How is this not horrible?

[Ji]

I’m totally fine with the south shift as long as the Tue wave maintains enough strength to give us decent qpf. The danger now is that it weakens so much that it becomes a non event, or an advisory for RIC, then the storm after pushes thermals north of us. It’s still unlikely, but not impossible. 

Non event? What model shows a non event ?

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

How is this not horrible?

Because it’s accumulating snow.  We don’t tend to do that well around here. 

[T. August]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

How is this not horrible?

Idk man a 3-5” mean is decent. Unfortunately the gfs op is still one of the snowiest out there, even including individual ens members.