February 11-12: Is it real?

[stormtracker]

Just now, snowfan said:

Not gonna lie….kinda creepy

Kinda?

[mitchnick]

Ukie

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Per my maps, 0 line gets right over top of DC and freezing line is close.  You sure no mixing issues?

I was doing the thing where i guessed off the snow map - yeah, we might mix after 111 but it's basically over. Never lose the surface I don't think

[WxUSAF]

Ukie is a beatdown. 13” for DC. No mixing north of EZF.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro going the way I mentioned earlier, weaker lead wave, putting its eggs in the follow up it seems. This could benefit people farther S

Looks like not much snow from that one

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie

I'm fine with that

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie

Nice! The Ukie agrees with my conservative call. 

[jayyy]

Ukie with the metros jackpot. Should pan out

[mitchnick]

Storm 2 on Ukie adds to totals.

[jayyy]

CMC/Euro say 3-6” type storm
GFS/Ukie say 8-12” type storm (both waves)

Set my expectations at a 6” max accordingly

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie

I have always loved the British. 

[Terpeast]

Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF.

[psuhoffman]

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. 
 

This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. 
 

This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.  

Sounds about right for us. Like we expected it to be snowy anyway haha 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. 
 

This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.  

Darn it. Well we'll just have to try and enjoy the 3-6" for what...24 hours? Ehhh...I'd never kick 3-6 outta bed except in that scenario because it's basically a prolonged thump to rain.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF.

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. 
 

This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.  

There’s plenty of moisture available. Pretty small differences in shortwave amplitude are giving us large variations in potential snowfall. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF.

Pretty good track for us IMO. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

There’s plenty of moisture available. Pretty small differences in shortwave amplitude are giving us large variations in potential snowfall. 

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. 

[EB89]

I may have missed it but can someone post the Euro map please?

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. 

Always seems the least likely failure option(s) becomes reality here most times.   

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. 

It could...although seeing the euro go in the weaker direction is a bit of a flag, no? I'd imagine if it still looks weak by 12z tomorrow, then...

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, frd said:

Always seems the least likely failure option(s) becomes reality here most times.   

It's never been "least likely". But in setup like this, there's some luck involved. In this case it's whatever is influencing the strength of the wave. Not that a higher snow total in this setup isn't realistic, ya just gotta get a bit lucky.

Eh...always felt like we had better luck on the weekends anyway 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It could...although seeing the euro go in the weaker direction is a bit of a flag, no? I'd imagine if it still looks weak by 12z tomorrow, then...

The models been meh this season anyway. Could see them show 6” for you 24hrs out and you end with 0” or whatever happened with that last storm when models had DC getting 4-6” the day before and ended with like nada. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh sorry if it came off that I think it’s locked in. Just that I don’t like the way this set of runs went. It could flip 18z for all we know. 

No I got you. I think big variations in snow are coming down to relatively small variations in shortwave amplitude in this scenario because of what a good moisture feed is present.

[WesternFringe]

11 minutes ago, EB89 said:

I may have missed it but can someone post the Euro map please?

It's just one page back.

[H2O]

Just now, WesternFringe said:

It's just one page back.

Not 43 pages?

[Heisy]

Looks like not much snow from that one

Correct, but what I’m saying is the weaker less amped lead wave benefits people farther S.


.

[Heisy]

I don’t like the 12z guidance. It trended towards a weaker lead wave across the board. That lead wave is the one we have the best chance. The boundary is lifting by the time the next one. We want a stronger lead and weaker follow and today trended the opposite way. 
 
This doesn’t mean no snow. But if we end up with a weaker lead stronger second wave we’re looking at a minor snow followed by a lot of rain.  

Yep, I had a feeling it was going to head this way after the 6z euro Ai run. Yesterday I was starting to feel potential high end SECS event now it’s looking like another 2-4”er


.

[Kmlwx]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Darn it. Well we'll just have to try and enjoy the 3-6" for what...24 hours? Ehhh...I'd never kick 3-6 outta bed except in that scenario because it's basically a prolonged thump to rain.

I mean how about 0 inches? Would that be better? Just sayin'! 

[yoda]

Great, thanks to Randy, every time I open this thread, I can only think of this due to the title