February 11-12: Is it real?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks fantastic!  Let's go.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fuck folks

[stormtracker]

Second little surge of moderate for SE DC line and just SE as it pulls away

[NorthArlington101]

widespread 6-10+

[DarkSharkWX]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It keeps the boundary in the perfect spot for the duration.  This is basically our ceiling right here.  This is everything breaking right for the metros. 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's wetter so far southern Carroll, Bmore counties south

Yep... It hits a wall right at the county line

[Eskimo Joe]

Warning level even for most of LWX CWA. Nice.

[LeesburgWx]

10:1 is nooiiceee. Where is the coke level Kuchera though?

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

widespread 6-10+

this is most of it

[jayyy]

Love to see us on the northern edge of the pinks with heavy snow down to RIC. Too bad it’s the GFS. Would love to see the Euro get on board with the heavier totals too but I imagine it’ll come in with another 6” event (not that that’s bad)

[bncho]

mini FOLKS

[LeesburgWx]

GFS is LOCKED in. Better be no complaining in here until 12z Euro runs

[mappy]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yep... It hits a wall right at the county line

I swear if warning snows stops to my south, I’m done for the winter.

[osfan24]

GFS cutting back on the heaviest totals from last run by a significant amount. Starting to move toward other guidance on intensity/qpf.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

mini FOLKS

THIS

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I swear if warning snows stops to my south, I’m done for the winter.

I wouldn't sweat it. 99 times out of 100 you will jackpot. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Solution Man said:

THIS

[mappy]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I wouldn't sweat it. 99 times out of 100 you will jackpot. 

Except ever since North Balt moved north 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mappy said:

Except ever since North Balt moved north 

Lol. You're in luck though since he moved South now. Oil the snow blower. 

[WxUSAF]

Beautiful run. That 2nd burst overnight Wednesday is colder aloft. Deeper DGZ. Would be some nice fluff.

[jayyy]

GFS cutting back on the heaviest totals from last run by a significant amount. Starting to move toward other guidance on intensity/qpf.

AKA moving toward the more realistic outcome. We all knew the gfs wouldn’t win a game of chicken with the euro. Hope you’d still be happy with 11” of snow lol

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

GFS meets the Euro halfway on placement and the Euro meets the GFS halfway on juice and were golden...

Looks like we pretty much just got exactly that on the GFS side. Ok, now lock it in. And lets get the Euro to make its move in a little bit here too. 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

AKA moving toward the more realistic outcome. We all knew the gfs wouldn’t win a game of chicken with the euro. Hope you’d still be happy with 11” of snow lol

Yeah, it looks beautiful. No mix at all.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Lol. You're in luck though since he moved South now. Oil the snow blower. 

Not yet. He said he’d still be north next week 

 

…I am not actually blaming him of course. Just been a frustrating few winters up here

[Conway7305]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Love to see us on the northern edge of the pinks with heavy snow down to RIC. Too bad it’s the GFS. Would love to see the Euro get on board with the heavier totals too but I imagine it’ll come in with another 6” event (not that that’s bad)

I live in RIC and hope it pans out like this. Everyone wins. If the northern trend continues on GFS, will still be good for you guys but create mixing issues for us unfortunately.  

[jon_snow]

So 10 miles south of DC is either 12 or 2 inches. Got it.

[TSSN+]

It’s adjusting back north. 18z will probably go 25-50 miles more north 

[jayyy]

So 10 miles south of DC is either 12 or 2 inches. Got it.

DC area lives in that realm of uncertainty for 90% of storms.

[WxUSAF]

More defined/consolidated vort on GGEM relative to 0z.