February 11-12: Is it real?

[Solution Man]

Damn, its sullen in here, good grief...we have some weather coming that we love. Stand up, stiffen that upper lip...we got tracking to do folks. Let's make this thing happen.

[adelphi_sky]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Damn, its sullen in here, good grief...we have some weather coming that we love. Stand up, stiffen that upper lip...we got tracking to do folks. Let's make this thing happen.

I like snow TV and some snowcover. At least enough to sled on or make a snowman. I don't need Armageddon snow. Hard to shovel lol I'm old. ANd my son is too young still to get him to do it. lol

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Damn, its sullen in here, good grief...we have some weather coming that we love. Stand up, stiffen that upper lip...we got tracking to do folks. Let's make this thing happen.

I wouldn't say that it's dire.  I thought the opposite actually.   I think the GFS will be a bit better and come north a bit.

[Curlyq]

8 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I like snow TV and some snowcover. At least enough to sled on or make a snowman. I don't need Armageddon snow. Hard to shovel lol I'm old. ANd my son is too young still to get him to do it. lol

Snow blowers are helpful.

[usedtobe]

52 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have important plans Tuesday and Wednesday.  They are important.  And they are plans.  

Its funny how I slammed the Euro yesterday for jumping around and then the GFS says "hold my weenie."  These big shifts are getting to be old AF.  Not as old as Wes, mind you, but old.  I just want to get a nice snow and not one that wrecks my back.  A permanent hunch is not sexy.  

47/31 and here's to the 12z being the best runs since 2016.  

I don't have no permanent hunch.  Not surprised that the models are jumping around.  Two may short waves and the ridge aloft west of optimal will keep the axis of heaviest snow jumping around.  I agree with not wanting too much snow as I don't want to end up with the permanent hunch.

[psuhoffman]

I should specify, when I point out what I think is our most likely way to fail...it does not mean I think that WILL happen...just that is what to look out for if it were to all go wrong.  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I wouldn't say that it's dire.  I thought the opposite actually.   I think the GFS will be a bit better and come north a bit.

what if it comes north because its more amped up?

[konksw]

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Damn, its sullen in here, good grief...we have some weather coming that we love. Stand up, stiffen that upper lip...we got tracking to do folks. Let's make this thing happen.

Feels like we’re at the point in the range where nobody believes what the models are selling ahead of the inevitable 24-48 hour shifts. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

Feels like we’re at the point in the range where nobody believes what the models are selling ahead of the inevitable 24-48 hour shifts. 

Completely understand, we've been here before

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, konksw said:

Feels like we’re at the point in the range where nobody believes what the models are selling ahead of the inevitable 24-48 hour shifts. 

This isn't unusual at all.  It is much more unusual for there to be great model consensus at 120+ hours.  Usually it's under 84 hours where they really converge and 48-72 where you can feel reasonably confident if you're in the bullseye.  The axis of heavy snow isn't much more than 100 miles wide with these waves so it's quite hard to pin point.   I like where we're at though.  I think there is a good chance for what LWX calls a "plowable snow" through the metros.  

[wtkidz]

From LWX AFD. 
 

Guidance continues to show appreciable probabilities (greater
than 50 percent) for a plowable snow across much of the area, with a
slight southward shift in guidance noted in 00z runs.

[J.Mike]

I've done this before, so I'll try again. If we get enough snow to shut down Metro's above ground tracks (8"area wide) I'll send RandyAWX $75. Hope it works. 

[WxUSAF]

Since the timing of this event got honed in, I think a broad 4-8” for EZF and points north has been a reasonable forecast. Nothing that I see right now would change that.

[T. August]

I believe the 12z ICON is showing what @Heisy and @psuhoffman were concerned about. The first wave is kind of warm and south, then the left over stuff gets amped up into central PA.

I only have 10:1 maps - it looks like 2-4” but temps are iffy from the start.

[Paleocene]

ICON looks a bit weird and disorganized, IDK why I look at that model. Makes me upset 9/10 times.

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

what if it comes north because its more amped up?

Then we wait for it to change again as it mostly likely would

[Heisy]

I believe the 12z ICON is showing what [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] and [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] were concerned about. The first wave is kind of warm and south, then the left over stuff gets amped up into central PA.
I only have 10:1 maps - it looks like 2-4” but temps are iffy from the start.

Yeah pretty much except the lead wave will have colder air to work with so it would favor southern sections. Icon and cmc have sort of been in this camp for a few runs. Once we get it to under 96 hours we’ll probably have a good idea how the h5 progression will go


.

[MDScienceTeacher]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since the timing of this event got honed in, I think a broad 4-8” for EZF and points north has been a reasonable forecast. Nothing that I see right now would change that.

IDK.  The models have consistently shown a long duration moderate snow event for our area for the past 5 days.  On the GFS, The 24 hour QPF totals have been btw 1 and 1.5 in the bullseye areas.  

Although its not HECs worthy, I feel like there is a little more boom potential.

[stormtracker]

Sir GFS is running

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

I've done this before, so I'll try again. If we get enough snow to shut down Metro's above ground tracks (8"area wide) I'll send RandyAWX $75. Hope it works. 

Sold. Quoted it so you can't delete the original post.   It's not that I don't trust you, but I don't trust you.

[stormtracker]

At 72 hours...too early to see the shape of the storm.  Just reporting that there are no remarkable changes so far

[stormtracker]

Guys, it's early ok?  But I'm seeing a tiny bit of positivity in that the angle of attack is just a bit more pointing toward the NE.  Could be noise...let's see if it propagates down the line

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Guys, it's early ok?  But I'm seeing a tiny bit of positivity in that the angle of attack is just a bit more pointing toward the NE.  Could be noise...let's see if it propagates down the line

looks a little quicker at 90 with the first part at least - tad more juicy

[Interstate]

The heights are slightly lower on H81 H5 maps

[stormtracker]

It's probably going to be a better run

[WxUSAF]

Looks juicy to me but maybe timing differences 

[stormtracker]

It's better so far.  Wetter, with no temp issues

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

looks a little quicker at 90 with the first part at least - tad more juicy

snow starts at 6am tues

[Interstate]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Looks juicy to me but maybe timing differences 

It looks stronger on the H5 at 90

[stormtracker]

It's wetter so far southern Carroll, Bmore counties south (includes Bmore if my geography is right)