February 11-12: Is it real?

[Buddy1987]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

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I got a better chance of surviving gas station sushi than I do of the GFS verifying. It will cave soon. 

[Quasievil]

As per the usual, GFS and EURO don’t agree. Shocker. The max amounts on the GFS seem out of touch. (Not that I wouldn’t happily take that)

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I got a better chance of surviving gas station sushi than I do of the GFS verifying. It will cave soon. 

I watched Bernie Rayno's video last night and he was saying how the GFS has a stronger piece of energy than the Euro and that's why it's showing more snow but thought that Euro was right. Said there is that other piece of energy that forms the next storm right on its heels so it doesn't make sense that the energy for the Tuesday storm is as strong as the GFS suggests.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

 

lol I know 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday 

[DDweatherman]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z EPS looks good for Tuesday 

Looks damn good, my yard is the purple spec

[Buddy1987]

21 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I watched Bernie Rayno's video last night and he was saying how the GFS has a stronger piece of energy than the Euro and that's why it's showing more snow but thought that Euro was right. Said there is that other piece of energy that forms the next storm right on its heels so it doesn't make sense that the energy for the Tuesday storm is as strong as the GFS suggests.

Agreed. Very hard to bet against the Euro. Is the AI similar and in agreeance or does it at least bring a better snow shield for most? I’m not as caught up as I usually am.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Agreed. Very hard to bet against the Euro. Is the AI similar and in agreeance or does it at least bring a better snow shield for most? I’m not as caught up as I usually am.

New run actually spitting out here in just a sec. 0z looked pretty good moved in right direction for us. 

[mitchnick]

6z AI brought south a bit the Tuesday precip similar to 18z yesterday. BUT, late Wednesday night into Thursday is mostly snow along (maybe a touch N&W) of the fall line. For places north and west that stay all snow bith events are probably low double digits.

Haven't looked at the rest of run. Will post any additional threats in the Long Range thread.

[T. August]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That is total, so it includes some on Saturday.  This is the 11th/12th. Sorry

But it's an improvement from 0z below.

That mean is sick. Gefs was an improvement too

[adelphi_sky]

11 minutes ago, T. August said:

That mean is sick. Gefs was an improvement too

So, it's gon' snow! Awesome. We got this. 

[stormtracker]

Anyway, I’m gonna pick up the pbp at 12z.  Just gonna keep it neutral:  Good (folks), decent, serviceable and not ideal.  Also, keep in mind, I’ve always championed ANY snow as good. 1-3 2-4.  So just because I say a model with 4-6 is a step back from the previous run is not ideal, doesn’t mean I eschewing 4-6 inches.  Ok? I’m just describing a model relative to its previous run.  
 

With that said, I hope you motherfuckers get buried. I’m also begging someone to post about how they have important plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.  
 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

I got a better chance of surviving gas station sushi than I do of the GFS verifying. It will cave soon. 

It's funny because if it was the opposite way and all the snow from the GFS was in the DC area nobody will be saying that lol

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Anyway, I’m gonna pick up the pbp at 12z.  Just gonna keep it neutral:  Good (folks), decent, serviceable and not ideal.  Also, keep in mind, I’ve always championed ANY snow as good. 1-3 2-4.  So just because I say a model with 4-6 is a step back from the previous run is not ideal, doesn’t mean I eschewing 4-6 inches.  Ok? I’m just describing a model relative to its previous run.  
 

With that said, I hope you motherfuckers get buried. I’m also begging someone to post about how they have important plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.  
 

I have a dentist appointment Weds AM. Will I have to reschedule?

[stormtracker]

Also I think I’m a fan of the solutions like the Euro. All or mostly snow, flirting with a mix. We gotta walk dangerously down here to get the goods.  I think the GFS comes north, but it will prob do the GFS think of overcorrecting and have the snow in Quebec. 

[Jandurin]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's funny because if it was the opposite way and all the snow from the GFS was in the DC area nobody will be saying that lol

they'd be saying it twice as hard if DC was the bullseye

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Anyway, I’m gonna pick up the pbp at 12z.  Just gonna keep it neutral:  Good (folks), decent, serviceable and not ideal.  Also, keep in mind, I’ve always championed ANY snow as good. 1-3 2-4.  So just because I say a model with 4-6 is a step back from the previous run is not ideal, doesn’t mean I eschewing 4-6 inches.  Ok? I’m just describing a model relative to its previous run.  
 

With that said, I hope you motherfuckers get buried. I’m also begging someone to post about how they have important plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.  
 

Based on your recent pbp and how crappy the storm will be for our area it looks like i'm better off driving to North Jersey for my important work trip. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Paleocene said:

I have a dentist appointment Weds AM. Will I have to reschedule?

Be serious now.  Because of you are….

[stormtracker]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Based on your recent pbp and how crappy the storm will be for our area it looks like i'm better off driving to North Jersey for my important work trip. 

You should stay.  Anything over 6, I’m staying put unless it’s some international destination. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

GFS meets the Euro halfway on placement and the Euro meets the GFS halfway on juice and were golden...

[mappy]

That was gross. Don’t post that again 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

What did i miss?

I saw it briefly.  Let's just say it was a very...uhhh..."toothy" image post! 

[H2O]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anyway, I’m gonna pick up the pbp at 12z.  Just gonna keep it neutral:  Good (folks), decent, serviceable and not ideal.  Also, keep in mind, I’ve always championed ANY snow as good. 1-3 2-4.  So just because I say a model with 4-6 is a step back from the previous run is not ideal, doesn’t mean I eschewing 4-6 inches.  Ok? I’m just describing a model relative to its previous run.  
 

With that said, I hope you motherfuckers get buried. I’m also begging someone to post about how they have important plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.  
 

I have important plans Tuesday and Wednesday.  They are important.  And they are plans.  

Its funny how I slammed the Euro yesterday for jumping around and then the GFS says "hold my weenie."  These big shifts are getting to be old AF.  Not as old as Wes, mind you, but old.  I just want to get a nice snow and not one that wrecks my back.  A permanent hunch is not sexy.  

47/31 and here's to the 12z being the best runs since 2016.  

[Quasievil]

20 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

GFS meets the Euro halfway on placement and the Euro meets the GFS halfway on juice and were golden...

I think this is our best case scenario!

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have important plans Tuesday and Wednesday.  They are important.  And they are plans.  

Its funny how I slammed the Euro yesterday for jumping around and then the GFS says "hold my weenie."  These big shifts are getting to be old AF.  Not as old as Wes, mind you, but old.  I just want to get a nice snow and not one that wrecks my back.  A permanent hunch is not sexy.  

47/31 and here's to the 12z being the best runs since 2016.  

Like I said yesterday, people gotta set their expectations in check. Foot plus snowstorms are rare and for a reason.  GFS was the only one being crazy with these amounts. It’ll prob come down to Earth today or tonight.  I think the 6z Euro is our max.  I’m good with that. 

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Like I said yesterday, people gotta set their expectations in check. Foot plus snowstorms are rare and for a reason.  GFS was the only one being crazy with these amounts. It’ll prob come down to Earth today or tonight.  I think the 6z Euro is our max.  I’m good with that. 

Snow maps are the devil.  Being in the jack sets everyones expectations too high cause then you get runs that jump around and it causes all the OH NOES.  and this is despite people also making posts saying they know things shift.  Yet they take one goddamn run with the most and say THIS IS WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN!!  

I'm expecting the models to cut back on the jumping(GFS) and if it shows a consistent 4" for the area then its a good storm.  When you have a train of waves, each run will focus on one wave over another depending on the model.  

I trust the NAVGEM.  

[Terpeast]

Had the models not spit out 20" runs a few days ago and instead showed an ice/rain/mix... and then started showing 6" runs today, we'd be ecstatic right now. But we're more like, meh I'll accept it as a consolation prize. This board is wild (and I mean that in a good way). 

[Heisy]

The euro Ai does exactly what my main fear is, at least up in Philly… the wave behind it becomes the dominant force and 11-12th wave is mostly overrunning. The wave for middle/end of week favors inland at this time. This scenario could work for southern sections because the lead wave ends up being mostly overrunning


.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The euro Ai does exactly what my main fear is, at least up in Philly… the wave behind it becomes the dominant force and 11-12th wave is mostly overrunning. The wave for middle/end of week favors inland at this time. This scenario could work for southern sections because the lead wave ends up being mostly overrunning


.

I wish I could say relax, but that is exactly what I was thinking was a legit fail mode for places north of DC but south of central PA.  I've seen that happen before...where initially the lead wave is supposed to be dominant but more energy gets held back and we get a front running weaker wave that gives snow to our south...then a stronger storm right behind it that goes to our NW.  Frankly that's no good for anyone because even the places that get good snow from the front runner has it all washed away almost immediately by a big rainstorm.  But so far the AI is mostly alone in that, but its definitely something to look out for and is the most likely way we fail here imo.  

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Had the models not spit out 20" runs a few days ago and instead showed an ice/rain/mix... and then started showing 6" runs today, we'd be ecstatic right now. But we're more like, meh I'll accept it as a consolation prize. This board is wild (and I mean that in a good way). 

Haha, it definitely is a matter of the order of what the models show as to what everyone's expectations are. I also think I'm just starved for something significant. It's been nine years. Half a foot is fine, but 6 inches or less is basically all I've had for 9 years (that's what she said).

The GFS is just a stronger and much longer storm than the Euro. Which is right? Probably the Euro since it's the better model, more realistic scenario, and generally matches the other models.