February 11-12: Is it real?

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Earlier in the season, models had an army of >1030mb High pressures going from the Midwest to the Northeast from this range or maybe a few days further out... that ended up breaking down and it rained up to Canada with low pressure there instead lol. I'm not saying that's going to happen here.. the EPO is very negative, which correlates high pressure exactly there, and I don't think the EPO was negative early in the season.. but it's something to keep in mind. High pressure in SE Canada/Great Lakes has been a phantom pattern lately, happening only rarely. Will be interesting to see if this maybe trends a little north. 

[Ji]

WB 6Z GFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

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[dailylurker]

Just now, Ji said:

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

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Yes. Because the gfs is worthless lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

With High pressure to the north too. It's been rare to have that. In the 1960s it used to happen a lot, but not lately.  I'm interested to see if that could lead to big model changes as we get closer.  Anyone know when is the last time we had 1030mb High pressure to the NW of a winter storm? 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

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So you want to be in the bullseye on the Gfs 100+ hours out when no other modeling has you bullseyed? 

[snowmagnet]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we just going to ignore the 20 to our south?

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It’s still in windshield wiper mode- not unusual at this point. North and south shift. Yesterday it looked like the frozen line was moving north, but I think it’s a good sign that the GFS and Euro moved south and that they are getting closer to each other. NWS has been alluding to the I-66 and 50 corridors as the bullseye.  We are 4 days out at this point. 

[Ji]

So you want to be in the bullseye on the Gfs 100+ hours out when no other modeling has you bullseyed? 

I didn’t say that but when this trends north is their really 20 inch potential ?

[mappy]

Geez, Randy makes a thread and it all goes to shit. Oh well. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

I didn’t say that but when this trends north is their really 20 inch potential ?

I was going to say - the gfs where it is pretty much is a bullseye.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z AI continues to look great!  Shot of best 6 hour period; totals also continue to increase N compared to previous run...

0z AI now keeps a lot of people snow for the follow up on Thursday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

0z AI now keeps a lot of people snow for the follow up on Thursday.

Hopefully it’s on to something because the other models have a parade of rainers after Tuesday. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Hopefully it’s on to something because the other models have a parade of rainers after Tuesday. 

AI also has rain to moderate snow next Saturday into Sunday. 

[WhiteoutMD]

Hopefully it’s on to something because the other models have a parade of rainers after Tuesday. 

Yea it looks like we have the qpf will we have the cold?


.

[TSSN+]

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

Looks more like it just got more juice everywhere 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does the ECMWF mix? 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does the ECMWF mix? 

Where?

[Ji]

Does the ECMWF mix? 

At the very end. Very similar to 00z

[mappy]

HR111 on 06z Euro is sweet. Heavy blues. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, mappy said:

HR111 on 06z Euro is sweet. Heavy blues. 

6z Euro is nice indeed!

[Ji]

The 6z runs keep being warmer than the 00z runs at 850mb

[mitchnick]

2nd storm may not be great on the 6z, but this is a pretty sweet ending.

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 6z runs keep being warmer than the 00z runs at 850mb

for you 

[mitchnick]

Eps mean 11th/12th

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps mean 11th/12th

That is total, so it includes some on Saturday.  This is the 11th/12th. Sorry

But it's an improvement from 0z below.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I didn’t say that but when this trends north is their really 20 inch potential ?

Seems really doubtful. No other model has anything remotely close to that amount. All other models are 1/2 to 1/3 of that.

Looks like 6z Euro amounts went down slightly for most.

[Ji]

Seems really doubtful. No other model has anything remotely close to that amount. All other models are 1/2 to 1/3 of that.
Looks like 6z Euro amounts went down slightly for most.

I think that was mainly due to little bit warmer aloft

[Ji]

Mitchnick reviewing the AI

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Geez, Randy makes a thread and it all goes to shit. Oh well. 

 

53 minutes ago, mappy said:

HR111 on 06z Euro is sweet. Heavy blues.