February 11-12: Is it real?

[mitchnick]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025020700&fh=111&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE is like 5-7” DC north 

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025020700&fh=111&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Was just coming to post this.

Ukie is a nice hit.

Hopefully Euro follows it 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Was just coming to post this.

Ukie is a nice hit.

Hopefully Euro follows it 

Not fast enough for the old man, eh?

See ya' in AAA kid!

[Ji]

I said it a few days ago…anything less than 6 is disaster

[Ji]

Man pivitol has some ugly graphics

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Was just coming to post this.

Ukie is a nice hit.

Hopefully Euro follows it 

Agreed, here is the Ukie through 168 hours.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

Man pivitol has some ugly graphics

Well it's mostly free, so...lol

[weathervswife]

Pivotal graphics for the UKIE show ice as snow for some reason in the clowns.  Other models are fine on Pivotal.

[Blizzard of 93]

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

UKIE is like 5-7” DC north 

Here is the Ukie for just this event 

[DarkSharkWX]

euro got colder and more amped!

[DarkSharkWX]

there we go

[Weather Will]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

there we go

Worth waking up for!

[T. August]

Euro is legit identical to 18z, I had to double check to make sure it was 0z.

6-8” for most

[NorthArlington101]

Basically the same as 18z but a hair colder. Nice to see the consistency. Good night!

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Basically the same as 18z but a hair colder. Nice to see the consistency. Good night!

Actually 00z flips some of us to ice - despite the better surface temps. Lose like 0.2” QPF Would’ve been a better run sans that - maybe some 10” lollies 

[DarkSharkWX]

money shot

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Actually 00z flips some of us to ice - despite the better surface temps. Lose like 0.2” QPF Would’ve been a better run sans that - maybe some 10” lollies 

thats kinda weird but i dont think would have made much of a difference, looks to me more sleet than zr if we mix

most of the precips already out of here by the time N of DC starts to mix

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Worth waking up for!

Best part of waking up is Euro in your cup?

[Ji]

Best part of waking up is Euro in your cup?

Let’s not waste that last .2 on ice and we get double digit

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

there we go

At least I don’t owe @stormtrackermy testicles. 

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Ji said:

Let’s not waste that last .2 on ice and we get double digit

but you don't lol, for some reason it has northern moco staying as snow and it doesnt make a difference at all

[Ji]

there we go

What made euro change to ice

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Ji said:

What made euro change to ice

honestly idk 850s are below the entire time we get precip, even if there is a warm nose its probably like sleet not zr

[DarkSharkWX]

just checked soundings for JYO/GAI we don't mix until hour 126 when precip is all out and even if there was precip its just sleet

[Blizzard of 93]

0z EPS for the 24 hour period of this event. 
Very much in the game.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z AI continues to look great!  Shot of best 6 hour period; totals also continue to increase N compared to previous run...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

06z GFS looks good, with a 1048 HP in the Midwest, and a string of >1030mb High's right to Pennsylvania. Could be a storm with temps in the 20s. 

[stormtracker]

5 hours ago, nj2va said:

“It’s ugly” will set the tone in the thread.  I got what you were saying but it is what it is.

Sure

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS looked good with a strong -EPO, High pressure block going north of Alaska

That's a cold pattern at the surface, despite +500mb heights.. favors snow and ice. 

Models have also kind of worked in a 50/50 low for the storm.