DDweatherman Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC I’d take 3-4 to get us over 20” on the year. Then hope for a thump weds night 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 20”??? Sheeeeeiiiiiitttt!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Euro wasn't showing any double digits that i can recall Yeah, the shit SV maps made it look terrible...it had double digits at 6z..but only uses 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago Definitely becoming more interested in the follow up...at least the start of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Euro says our money period is after 00z. Looks like 0.4 QPF for dc between 0z and 6z. Based on the surface maps I'd say the good part will be closer to 00z than 6z. Probably 7-11pm is the prime time, plan jeb walks accordingly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just realized the EURO blasts temps into the mid 50's on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago My big question is Will it stick? The latest hourly guidance from NWS claims it won't get to freezing around DCA on Tuesday until almost midnight. Must be why Arlington hasn't brined my Hill of Doom yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Relatively unchanged. Slightly better DC south and slightly worse up north. 6z on top and 12z on bottom. Yeah, looks like noise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: My big question is Will it stick? The latest hourly guidance from NWS claims it won't get to freezing around DCA on Tuesday until almost midnight. Must be why Arlington hasn't brined my Hill of Doom yet. lol, every model has it below freezing well below midnight. You'll be ok with snow. It's winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, every model has it below freezing well below midnight. You'll be ok with snow. It's winter. Nah, this late in the season the reflection of the sun angle off the moon should eat into totals unless it's a new moon. Sheeeit, I just checked. Gonna be a full moon, we're hanging on by a thread. It's over. 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Nah, this late in the season the reflection of the sun angle off the moon should eat into totals unless it's a new moon. And we do have a full moon in 2 days... uh oh. hope the models are taking this into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Really just need to look at precip amounts for the first wave. That one is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSG said: And we do have a full moon in 2 days... uh oh. hope the models are taking this into account Just modified my comment, I'm punting this storm at this point. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago This is the EPS worst-case scenario map (bottom 10%)… would like to hope this is about the floor, with a little lower in mind in case we have issues with stickage at first. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago I'll believe DCA getting 2.5" more than JYO when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is the EPS worst-case scenario map (bottom 10%)… would like to hope this is about the floor, with a little lower in mind in case we have issues with stickage at first. That’s pretty damn solid. The Euro seems locked in at this point. Barely changed between 6z and 12z while the GFS wobbled more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 13 minutes ago, IronTy said: Just modified my comment, I'm punting this storm at this point. The 54 degree rain the next day will take care of anything the moon angle doesn't. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 33 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: My big question is Will it stick? The latest hourly guidance from NWS claims it won't get to freezing around DCA on Tuesday until almost midnight. Must be why Arlington hasn't brined my Hill of Doom yet. Yes on the grass enjoy the snow man making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Nowcast/obs thread now? Or before 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: Nah, this late in the season the reflection of the sun angle off the moon should eat into totals unless it's a new moon. Sheeeit, I just checked. Gonna be a full moon, we're hanging on by a thread. It's over. I get the concern of daytime snow, but if we're talking grass, I think it'll be fine...sure, its gonna be slow going until after 6 or so. Seems kinda overblown, but I'm def open to the idea. It's definitely not going to be ideal and I'm probably gonna bust and should shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Nowcast/obs thread now? Or before 0z? Lead us, oh Moderator 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, feloniousq said: I'll believe DCA getting 2.5" more than JYO when I see it. Great point, especially with a storm where mixing and temp profiles are going to cause some crazy gradients - absolutely none of that favors DCA over JYO. Still, I'm getting bustola vibes with this thing big time, the way the models are wavering with the mixing line is telling me they're kinda catching on to changeover. The snow maps don't really tell the entire story, this is the SREF from earlier (at IAD / Dulles) - would absolutely crush anything that's accumulated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: Lead us, oh Moderator After Happy Hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, diatae said: The 54 degree rain the next day will take care of anything the moon angle doesn't. I've never had to shovel a 7-11 slushie before so at least I'll be able to cross that off my life list. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Great point, especially with a storm where mixing and temp profiles are going to cause some crazy gradients - absolutely none of that favors DCA over JYO. Still, I'm getting bustola vibes with this thing big time, the way the models are wavering with the mixing line is telling me they're kinda catching on to changeover. The snow maps don't really tell the entire story, this is the SREF from earlier (at IAD / Dulles) - would absolutely crush anything that's accumulated. I mean yeah it’s gonna rain on Wed night, but using the SREFs as a point of measure isn’t useful. It’s pretty horrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, Snowman. said: I mean yeah it’s gonna rain on Thursday, but using the SREFs as a point of measure isn’t useful. It’s pretty horrible. those plumes show it raining on Wednesday. like early Wednesday. and my guess based on climo and what's gone on all winter is that if we have rates, we'll be snowing. if we don't have rates, it will be drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC Looks very meh up this way to me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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