aldie 22 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, 87storms said: Looking like a rainer, I guess, for next weekend. Thought we'd have a chance with that wave. Onto next week... Tomorrow isn't settled yet FYI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Tomorrow isn't settled yet FYI We have the cold for tomorrow. For next weekend, we probably would need that wave to slow down. Note: I meant to add my other post to LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: You don't need frozen ground for snow to accumulate very quickly. That said, the potential for meh rates on this one - at least north of DC - could definitely make the OTG totals less impressive overall. Yeah I know, hence me comment about rates. Hopefully they're high enough to quickly overcome it. I've been down here for 20yrs now and have read this book enough times to anchor my expectations on the low end this late in the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Does any other model show that paltry of a storm with that sort of distribution? 25-30 hours out and tools still spitting out 3-11”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 18 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok Key there is being accurate hehe -oh and GO BIRDS!!! SB CHAMPIONS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago I know I';m gonna be annoyed with the daytime stuff. Conn Ave is going to take forever to cave. And that puts me on tilt. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Iow, this one ain't ours unless the Nams are correct. Probably not, but you're assuming there is no 50 miles north jump the last 24 hours as we've seen a couple times this season. Or that there isn't some surprise not surprise banding on the northern fringe that puts down 5" with barely and QPF as we've seen at times...then if we tack on 2-3" of snow/sleet from wave 2 suddenly we had a really nice event. And those things are not crazy impossible. But yes if I had to put money on it the most likely outcome is we get fringed with 2" from the first wave and 1" of slop from the second and its not a fun time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know I';m gonna be annoyed with the daytime stuff. Conn Ave is going to take forever to cave. And that puts me on tilt. Gotta get out of that concrete jungle and get into some forest. Come on out to Crownsville and do some hiking. Its usually pretty cold here. The trees should start looking nice. Ive also got some nice trees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 25-30 hours out and tools still spitting out 3-11”. it's not that bad i think the envelope is pretty small honestly but as always there is one model that is an outlier and there are also a group of pessimists who are leaning heavily on the outlier or working super hard to talk about sun angle and ground temps etc. It's annoying if i'm being honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Presumably lwx goes WSW for Baltimore south and WWA for the northern counties later? Pretty borderline in most places… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, aldie 22 said: it's not that bad i think the envelope is pretty small honestly but as always there is one model that is an outlier and there are also a group of pessimists who are leaning heavily on the outlier or working super hard to talk about sun angle and ground temps etc. It's annoying if i'm being honest Even if we take out the most bullish outlier, it wouldn't change the forecast for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, weathercoins said: Presumably lwx goes WSW for Baltimore south and WWA for the northern counties later? Pretty borderline in most places… I would imagine they wait for the 12z Euro before upgrading anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Can only expect so much from a 1013 low that's headed out to sea. It is what it is... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2025021012&fh=42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I know we're too close to the event to worry about what the ensembles show, but the GEFS have definitely been trending weaker and more south over the past four runs. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would imagine they wait for the 12z Euro before upgrading anything. I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Alright..Euro running. I'll update as soon as I can see the storm coming into our frame. Hopefully it'll be nothing notable...except a north jog! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, EstorilM said: I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event. This is pretty locked in. Not worth putting much weight on the SREFs or GEM output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago UKMet was a bit of a step back from 06z. Still a general 3-5 with less for Baltimore and NE Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Looking about the same so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Actually, seems like the south crew took a huge haircut. North, where you at with the pretty maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looking about the same so far Maybe noise, but looks like precip shield is more robust northward 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago any changes are noise I think 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Actually, seems like the south crew took a huge haircut. North, where you at with the pretty maps Sold! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Sold! How does that compare with 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: Am I looking at the right thing? Seems like everybody took a bit of a haircut on the accum map? Maybe it's the shitty SV maps or I'm just ditzy Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Yeah, I was like maybe I'm trippin. It did trend drier down south tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago Yeah, I'm trippin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think Euro wasn't showing any double digits that i can recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm trippin. I wish it was someone we all liked less that did the pbp’s lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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