Warm Nose Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok if u look at the model. It shows rain in short pump and Salisbury yet it Shows outrageous snow totals. They are wayy over done down there lol You're looking at the Wednesday event. All of their snow falls on Tuesday and overnight. Yes, it's still overdone but this doesn't show that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Not sure that is a trend. More of a wobble. I still like that stripe to come a little north at game time. But splitting hairs at this point. We will know in about 24 hours The precipitation distribution wobbled back to what it looked like in the 00 UTC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok if u look at the model. It shows rain in short pump and Salisbury yet it Shows outrageous snow totals. They are wayy over done down there lol In order to be accurate you have to show or look at the simulated radar throughout Tuesday til the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not believing in this Wednesday evening snow until I see some other guidance show it Well, looks like GGEM maybe has 1” north of DC Wednesday afternoon/evening? More for mountains. GGEM has a brutal gradient north of DC for precip tomorrow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well, looks like GGEM maybe has 1” north of DC Wednesday afternoon/evening? More for mountains. GGEM has a brutal gradient north of DC for precip tomorrow though. When you say north of DC roughly what's the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Looks like some dry air could be a potential issue just north of Baltimore especially northeast MD tomorrow. Maybe no NE MD pummeled pics from what’s his face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: When you say north of DC roughly what's the line? Looking at Pivotal maps, maybe not. TT was tricking me. It’s basically M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Yep, GFS came a little south on precip amounts...caving. I'm in the 0.4-.0.5" zone for now. 2-4" still looks like the situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 3k soundings look nice for metro areas. Comes in hot and heavy. Ripping in the 5-8pm window. What is starting time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looking at Pivotal maps, maybe not. TT was tricking me. It’s basically M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago This storm has Boom or Bust written all over it.....Im in Northern Neck so Ive been rooting for that Southern Trend like the GFS just showed however all other models seem to really like Fredricksburg to DC. I will say the GFS has handled this storm best but gotta believe some of these totals are way overdone for central VA and sleet/,mixing may be issue. I will say models really mishandled the Saturday event here. We were expecting all rain and woke up to moderate snow and ground covered. Temps stayed quite a bit cooler all day then what was modeled. Just food for thought. I still think the best of this one is North of my neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago If I was forecasting this I’d go 3-5” for DC and assume we get 4”. Setting a bar of 3” so I’m not too disappointed. A 50mi n shift at game time would be great for group morale… here’s hoping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago My area might have the highest boom/bust potential for this event. If the initial wave trends north some I could get hit good from both part 1 and 2, on the other hand it is equally or maybe even more likely I get fringed by both and get stuck in a snow minimum in between. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If I was forecasting this I’d go 3-5” for DC and assume we get 4”. Setting a bar of 3” so I’m not too disappointed. A 50mi n shift at game time would be great for group morale… here’s hoping. 3" seems to be the realistic outcome here for most. LWX discussion: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Heading into Tuesday, we have a favorable setup for a long duration of snow across the area. With a broad upper trough over the CONUS and a CAD wedge over the area with surface high pressure to our northeast, we`ll have a cold thermal profile in place and Gulf moisture streaming in aloft from the SW Tuesday and through midweek. Guidance has been trending later with this system, with precip now expected to begin mid-late Tuesday morning and overspread the area SW to NE through Tuesday night. Precip type is expected to be snow to start, with some sleet/freezing rain mixing in along our southern tier where temps rise through the day. There is some uncertainty regarding temperatures during the day Tuesday as the surface high to our northeast begins to erode. Precip type and accumulation will be dependent on these temperatures as well as precip rates. Currently, high temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 30s. While temperatures will be dropping Tuesday night after sunset, WAA aloft to expected to gradually erode the CAD wedge from south to north overnight. More sleet/freezing rain is expected to mix in as a result Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are currently out for Tuesday and Tuesday night for expected snow totals of 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6-7 inches possible. Ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch is possible along our southern tier. Further Warnings and Advisories may be issued today, so be sure to check weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest information. As the initial disturbance moves offshore during the day Wednesday, a lull in precip is expected before a second disturbance approaches from the southwest. Precip type is expected to be more of a sleet/freezing rain mix than snow, before gradually turning over to rain through Wednesday afternoon. IP/ZR likely continue along and east of the ridges where cold air hangs on a bit longer. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, Warm Nose said: This is setting up for a classic letdown when folks expect 6-8 sub-wide. 3-5 for most is the bar, I think, and we should be very happy with that if it verifies. I think we each decide if we happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago I'd prob go 3-6 around DC and 2-4 north of Bmore, 4-8 in the jack areas 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My area might have the highest boom/bust potential for this event. If the initial wave trends north some I could get hit good from both part 1 and 2, on the other hand it is equally or maybe even more likely I get fringed by both and get stuck in a snow minimum in between. Iow, this one ain't ours unless the Nams are correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 18 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: In order to be accurate you have to show or look at the simulated radar throughout Tuesday til the changeover. Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago I'm outside doing some chores getting ready for the storm - washing the car, charging the battery in the muck truck, etc. I don't even have a coat on and with the sun it feels downright warm. I'm feeling a bit of bust for this one. The ground certainly isn't gonna be cold when it starts so im expecting a layer of slush til rates overcome it. Should make shoveling it real fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 12z HRDPS is the closest we have gotten to a non-event so far. Doesn’t start until 8pm and peak rates are .5”/hr for a few hours. Total is 1-4” M/D line to DC. 5-6” SoMD through SBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago One thing is clear, you'll want to get out and enjoy the snow Wednesday, if possible, because rain is on its heels by overnight Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 45 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No huge changes. No temp issues at all. Even RIC is ok temp wise...still will end up jacking between EZF and RIC most likely Why the clamour about temps no good from others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, T. August said: 12z HRDPS is the closest we have gotten to a non-event so far. Doesn’t start until 8pm and peak rates are .5”/hr for a few hours. Total is 1-4” M/D line to DC. 5-6” SoMD through SBY. Any other good news?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, ravensrule said: Any other good news?. The Chiefs were dismantled in front of a global audience last night 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Shad said: This storm has Boom or Bust written all over it.....Im in Northern Neck so Ive been rooting for that Southern Trend like the GFS just showed however all other models seem to really like Fredricksburg to DC. I will say the GFS has handled this storm best but gotta believe some of these totals are way overdone for central VA and sleet/,mixing may be issue. I will say models really mishandled the Saturday event here. We were expecting all rain and woke up to moderate snow and ground covered. Temps stayed quite a bit cooler all day then what was modeled. Just food for thought. I still think the best of this one is North of my neck of the woods. "I will say the GFS has handled this storm best" I mean - it def could score a win here once it's all said and done. But I'm not sure can say with confidence which model has handled this best until we see what actually transpires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago FV3 was nice. Right in line with other guidance. And probably pretty realistic. 4-6 in town. 2-4 north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, T. August said: 12z HRDPS is the closest we have gotten to a non-event so far. Doesn’t start until 8pm and peak rates are .5”/hr for a few hours. Total is 1-4” M/D line to DC. 5-6” SoMD through SBY. Does any other model show that paltry of a storm with that sort of distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm outside doing some chores getting ready for the storm - washing the car, charging the battery in the muck truck, etc. I don't even have a coat on and with the sun it feels downright warm. I'm feeling a bit of bust for this one. The ground certainly isn't gonna be cold when it starts so im expecting a layer of slush til rates overcome it. Should make shoveling it real fun. You don't need frozen ground for snow to accumulate very quickly. That said, the potential for meh rates on this one - at least north of DC - could definitely make the OTG totals less impressive overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That's what I'm expecting up here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Does any other model show that paltry of a storm with that sort of distribution? Rgem is similar but a little wetter. Hrrr at hour 1,000,000 was kind of like it too. edit: The DC area at a minimum gets ~4” on almost all guidance. So not a bad floor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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