WxUSAF Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad). Hrrr gets temps up to upper 30s/near 40 tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad). This is setting up for a classic letdown when folks expect 6-8 sub-wide. 3-5 for most is the bar, I think, and we should be very happy with that if it verifies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM touch drier this run. Ooof. Northern edge gradient is not kind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it was different from the globals in track, precip totals, etc. I’d probably still be a little skeptical at this point? But it’s not. I think it’s been steady and in line with the globals so I think it’s very much worth factoring into forecasts. Good point for sure! So that said, what are your thoughts for the HoCo crew? I’ve been thinking 4-6 for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Well damn, SREF plume mean is actually 5.6" for IAD. P-type is a mess though, and WAY more rain than I expected for Loudoun, hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good point for sure! So that said, what are your thoughts for the HoCo crew? I’ve been thinking 4-6 for a while now. Yeah 3-6/4-6 seems right. Less than 1/6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 26 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Thank you! I was getting annoyed with the all the over cautiousness/ conservatism wrt to the total potential for this storm. Everyone seems to be stuck on 3-6/ 2-4 amounts. I think that It won’t take much to push this over 8 inches. So why not go all in? The temp profiles have me worried, even if a big thump is overnight... going to be very different than the 1/6 event unfortunately. The p-type maps are kinda a mess. I think it'll be one of those things where you might get that total SNOWFALL amount, but it's not going to be accumulated. 26 for a low tonight might help prime surfaces decently for tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah 3-6/4-6 seems right. Less than 1/6. Yeah 1/6 we had good cold air in place and it started in the dark. Even if we do get similar QPF tomorrow we will be warmer to start and will be starting with maximum sun angle. We will not accumulate as efficiently as 1/6 until after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 32 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Thank you! I was getting annoyed with the all the over cautiousness/ conservatism wrt to the total potential for this storm. Everyone seems to be stuck on 3-6/ 2-4 amounts. I think that It won’t take much to push this over 8 inches. So why not go all in? Going "all-in" in forecasting is generally not a great idea no matter what type of weather. Antecedent temps won't be like the January storm for one thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ooof. Northern edge gradient is not kind. It's been getting worse for the Northern crew for several runs now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago This has high bust potential written on it ... I suspect we'll see a lot of disappointed people in the Obs thread come Wed morning. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago People should avoid page 75 of this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: People should avoid page 75 of this thread... Why? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: This has high bust potential written on it ... I suspect we'll see a lot of disappointed people in the Obs thread come Wed morning. I agree it has bust potential with marginal temps and being on the northern edge of the best precip. The best thing going for it is the majority of precip is progged to occur after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago As far as I am concerned there is only one person allowed to throw the HRRR turd into the punchbowl and that's MN Transplant. He's our new Ender for those who have been around for awhile 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah 1/6 we had good cold air in place and it started in the dark. Even if we do get similar QPF tomorrow we will be warmer to start and will be starting with maximum sun angle. We will not accumulate as efficiently as 1/6 until after dark. Well to be fair with all of the 1/6 comparisons something that may be in this storms favor is better lift in the DGZ which really held 1/6 back from achieving much beyond its low end forecasts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Well to be fair with all of the 1/6 comparisons something that may be in this storms favor is better lift in the DGZ which really held 1/6 back from achieving much beyond its low end forecasts 1/6 was a generally good storm for me but flipping to sleet around dawn was a real turd in the punchbowl. Still ended up with ~8” but would probably take an 5” all snow event without a big lull over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah 1/6 we had good cold air in place and it started in the dark. Even if we do get similar QPF tomorrow we will be warmer to start and will be starting with maximum sun angle. We will not accumulate as efficiently as 1/6 until after dark. Meh. If it's light to start, we'll be alright. Sun angle doesn't matter much after 4pm. I'll still be impressed if we get 6" here inside the beltway though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: As far as I am concerned there is only one person allowed to throw the HRRR turd into the punchbowl and that's MN Transplant. He's our new Ender for those who have been around for awhile The HRRR is great - when it confirms what every other model is saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago And we're off...12z GFS is running 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The HRRR and temp issues is why I went conservative! Now there is a chance that even my forecast is too bullish. Hopefully most precip happens after 4 pm and the heaviest comes overnight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago No significant differences so far...approaching the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kdca Here is a site that a few of you may not be aware of. It is useful for determining the timing of precipitation onset, examining rates, and looking at model temperatures from the NAM and GFS. For example, the unrealistic snow amounts from 12-km NAM are not just due to its convective algorithm but are partly due to the low temperatures it is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago No huge changes. No temp issues at all. Even RIC is ok temp wise...still will end up jacking between EZF and RIC most likely 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: No huge changes. No temp issues at all Good!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: No huge changes. No temp issues at all Slight jump S with the heaviest stuff if we’re being picky. Looks like dc at least may lose whatever falls before 3pm, which doesn’t seem like that much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago So far, it didn't bring the moisture down slightly for the northern crew. I should say the northern extent is a bit more souther from the precip amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Slight jump S with the heaviest stuff if we’re being picky. Looks like dc at least may lose whatever falls before 3pm, which doesn’t seem like that much lol, it's like 30 miles. Good stuff comes close to sunset it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: So far, it didn't bring the moisture down slightly for the northern crew. I should say the northern extent is a bit more souther from the precip amounts It is locked in. Can barely tell any difference in the precip fields from 00 to 06 to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 6" just south of DC metro on 10:1 maps by 03z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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